Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bayou Cane, LA

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

As the frontal boundary to the north creeps southward over the weekend, and mid level flow becomes southwesterly, conditions will gradually become more favorable for increased areal coverage of showers and storms. The operational GFS solution is slower to do this than the ECMWF. The ECMWF indicates this could happen as early as Saturday afternoon, but more definitively Sunday, continuing through midweek and beyond. The greatest potential for showers and storms looks to be during the afternoon hours Tuesday and Wednesday. The GFS operational solution is much less aggressive, holding rain chances in the 20-30 percent range during much of that period. The NBM solution is much more representative of the ECMWF operational numbers. Did not deviate from the NBM PoPs from Sunday onward, but if it appears that the GFS becomes more representative of expectations, those numbers would need lowered in later forecasts. With precipitable water values expected to be in the 1.6 to 1.8 range during the first half of next week, there will be potential for heavy rainfall. However, by that point, it will have been two weeks or more since most areas will have seen significant rainfall, lowering any flash flooding threat, at least initially.

High temperatures will be impacted by how much convection develops during the afternoon hours. Where convection develops, high temperatures will top out in the mid 80s. Where convection is more limited, highs will be around 90, give or take a couple degrees.
With the PoP forecast being somewhat more driven by the ECMWF scenario, the NBM high temperature numbers also resemble the ECMWF high temperature guidance.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Nearly stationary convection about halfway between KHUM and KBTR stubbornly hanging on at present, but not close enough to either terminal to threaten local operations in the near term. Expect the cluster to weaken and dissipate in the next few hours with the loss of surface heating. Overall, expect VFR conditions at all terminals for most of the overnight period. Some restrictions to visibilities are possible around sunrise at KBTR/KMCB/KHDC, with the most likely category at MVFR. Will use a TEMPO for those.
Temperature/dew point spreads will be narrower at most terminals on Friday, so if/when cumulus field develops at mid or late morning, there may be a brief period of MVFR ceilings if moisture levels are higher than anticipated. At this time, won't mention ceilings in the morning. Any thunderstorm development on Friday is not likely to produce areal coverage greater than 20 percent, if it develops at all. No mention in forecasts at this time.

MARINE
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Main concern for marine operations through the 5 day forecast period will be the threat of thunderstorms producing localized higher winds and season. Aside from thunderstorm development, winds should generally remain less than 15 knots and seas in the 1 to 3 foot range.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 68 90 70 90 / 0 10 0 20 BTR 70 91 73 92 / 10 20 0 20 ASD 69 90 72 90 / 0 10 0 20 MSY 74 89 75 90 / 10 10 0 20 GPT 70 88 73 87 / 0 0 0 10 PQL 66 91 71 89 / 0 0 0 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.