Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bayou L'Ourse, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 7:58PM Thursday July 29, 2021 10:59 AM CDT (15:59 UTC) Moonrise 10:48PMMoonset 10:44AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ455 Coastal Waters From Lower Atchafalaya River To Intracoastal City La Out 20 Nm- 945 Am Cdt Thu Jul 29 2021
Rest of today..South winds up to 5 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds up to 5 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Friday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 945 Am Cdt Thu Jul 29 2021
Synopsis.. Light onshore flow is expected through the period. Expect daily chances for shower and Thunderstorm activity. Locally higher winds and seas, along with cloud to water lightning can be expected near the storms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayou L'Ourse, LA
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location: 29.67, -91     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 290829 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 329 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS.

Upper ridge centered over Kansas early this morning, with the surface high centered over eastern Oklahoma. Ridging extends southeastward toward Georgia. Water vapor imagery indicates highest precipitable water values continue to be suppressed south of Interstate 20. Would note that 00z LIX sounding precipitable water value of 2.43 inches was probably contaminated to some extent as there was convection in the area at launch.

At 3 AM CDT, temperatures were in the mid 70s to lower 80s for much of the area. There was an isolated thunderstorm noted around Breton Sound/Lake Borgne. It's usually about this time that convection gets going in the coastal waters, so areal coverage may have increased by the time the actual forecast goes out.

SHORT TERM (through Saturday night).

Main concern will continue to be heat stress through at least Saturday. However, isolated to scattered convection will have at least a limited threat of strong winds during the afternoon hours.

Plan to keep Heat Advisory in place as currently configured for today and tomorrow. All indications are that any convection should be limited to mainly the afternoon hours both days, and a bit concerned that current forecast PoPs are too high. This is supported by forecast soundings showing convective temperatures in the mid 90s at most locations. NAM solution that is carrying higher chances today may have initialized precipitable water values too high with the 00z LIX sounding noted above. Remaining model solutions have lower precipitable water values that would support lower chances. 12z flight should be quite informative in this respect. Forecast soundings show enough low level dry air to be at least somewhat concerned about downbursts, as reflected by DCAPE values well in excess of 1000 both afternoons. Heat index values look to max out in the 108-112 range in most areas. Can't rule out isolated spots exceeding that.

Saturday is somewhat more questionable when it comes to precip chances. GFS solution carrying higher precipitation chances than the ECMWF and other solutions. This appears to be due to an easterly wave in the northern Gulf of Mexico that is a little closer to the coast than the other solutions, where upper ridging continues to exert more control. If the GFS is correct, temps will be lower and thunderstorms more of a threat. If it isn't . Saturday could actually be the hottest, most impactful of the 3 days. At this point, leaning toward the drier solution. 35

LONG TERM (Sunday and beyond).

Pattern change on the way possibly beginning late Sunday but especially for next week. Rather strong agreement by the operational models, ensemble means, and the NBM. With that confidence is increasing that the heat we have been dealing with will come to an end and widespread rain returning, possibly a little more than we would like but it will be cooler. Overall no real areas of opportunity to deviate from the NBM as it looks good with both temps and PoPs.

Sunday may be the last day with that oppressive heat however, if things speed up Sunday may not be too bad then. Starting off the day the highly amplified ridge over the rockies will extend north well into western Canada and southeast into the eastern GOM. However, with that a deepening L/W trough will be taking over the eastern half of the CONUS with a strong s/w dropping down the back side through the Mid MS Valley and towards the Lower MS Valley late Sunday and Sunday night. This s/w will help to dig the L/W trough even more and likely cause a break in the ridge across the Lower MS Valley and even into the northwestern GOM by Monday morning. This will try to drive a cold front towards the area but that will not make it here till Monday so ahead of it will still be quite muggy and warm. The ridge may hold on just enough to keep convection more scattered and h925 temps of 23-25C would mix down to 32-34C leading to lower to mid 90s. Some compressional heating out ahead of the front may help lead to mid 90s as well. Biggest issue with getting those highs would be cloud cover and rain which I am sure no one will really be complaining about. Heat Advisory may be needed for some areas but a lot will depend on timing.

Next week the pattern change will be in full swings. L/W trough will dominate everything from the Plains to the east coast. This will drive that front into the area and could even drop it into the GOM by Tuesday. Problem is that front may lay up right over the area or just south into the Gulf. Either way would lead to cooler and wetter conditions however, the front laying up over the region could lead to heavier rain. Monday and Tuesday currently have PoPs of 70-90% already and the rain could continue for another day or two. If the L/W trough holds across the eastern CONUS through the week like advertised, we may finally see some actual dry air move in around mid week with PWs dropping below 1.5" and dewpoints possibly into the 60s. /CAB/

AVIATION (valid through 12z Friday).

Clouds around FL050 at KMCB early this morning may prevent any lower conditions developing, so it should primarily remain a VFR forecast outside of convection. All indications are that any significant development should hold off until beyond 18z. Will keep things at the VCTS level until a favored terminal or terminals becomes apparent. Most convection should die off during the early evening hours. 35

MARINE.

Main concerns through the forecast period will continue to be convective threats. Over the open waters, that threat will primarily be during the late night/morning hours each day. For the lakes and sounds, it will be more closely related to convection over land, afternoon and early evening. 35

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 95 75 96 76 / 20 20 30 10 BTR 95 76 95 77 / 40 20 40 10 ASD 96 77 97 78 / 40 10 40 10 MSY 97 81 97 81 / 40 10 50 10 GPT 94 77 95 78 / 30 10 30 10 PQL 95 77 96 78 / 30 10 30 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . Heat Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>050-056>061-063>065-070>072-075>078.

Heat Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>050-056>061-063>065-070>072-075>078.

GM . None. MS . Heat Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-080>082.

Heat Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for MSZ068>071-077- 080>082.

GM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 13 mi60 min NNE 4.1 G 6 86°F 85°F1018.5 hPa (+1.4)
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 23 mi60 min NNW 1.9 G 4.1 92°F 86°F1018.3 hPa (+1.4)
EINL1 29 mi60 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 87°F 86°F1018.2 hPa (+1.5)80°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 32 mi60 min Calm G 5.1 86°F 90°F1018.2 hPa (+1.3)
FREL1 43 mi60 min N 2.9 G 5.1 87°F 1017.2 hPa (+1.2)
CARL1 49 mi60 min 86°F

Wind History for Tesoro Marine Terminal, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patterson Memorial, LA18 mi64 minN 510.00 miFair87°F80°F80%1018.5 hPa
Houma-Terrebonne Airport, LA19 mi73 minno data7.00 miA Few Clouds88°F79°F75%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPTN

Wind History from PTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW63NE4CalmCalmSW6SW5SW3SW4CalmCalmSE7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5
1 day ago4E3N5CalmCalmS6S6SW7SW7CalmCalmN3CalmN3NE3N3CalmCalmCalmNE4N8NE10N5Calm
2 days agoCalmE43CalmCalmSW3SE33CalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmSE3CalmSW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Island, Louisiana
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Shell Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:41 AM CDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:23 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:14 AM CDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:46 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:12 PM CDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:59 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:50 PM CDT     1.01 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:49 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.40.50.50.60.80.91.11.21.21.210.80.60.60.60.60.70.80.90.911

Tide / Current Tables for Eugene Island, Louisiana
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Eugene Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:17 AM CDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:24 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:55 AM CDT     1.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:46 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:48 PM CDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:59 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:31 PM CDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:49 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.60.60.80.91.11.31.41.51.61.51.20.90.80.70.80.80.911.21.31.31.31.2

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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