Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Morgan City, LA

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Active weather continues, with significant flash flooding impacting Acadiana and southwest Louisiana. Rain gauges in Lafayette, St. Martin, and Iberia Parish recorded rainfall amounts above 7 inches, with a maximum report of 8.2 inches near Broussard. Satellite and radar continue to show widespread, scattered, slow-moving storms, with the 50 dBZ located below the freezing level. These low echo centroid cells are proficient rainmakers, with radar-estimated rain rates between 1 and 3 inches per hour.

In the upper levels, a trough is located across central Texas and will slowly lift northward over the weekend. Impacts from the trough will continue to be felt through the weekend and into the start of next week, with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected each day. Heavy rainfall remains a concern on Saturday, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) across the region. Moisture and instability remain high, with expected PWAT values above 1.8 inches over the next several days. To put that number into context, the climatological 75th percentile is 1.78 inches. CAPE values are also high, ranging from 1,000 to 1,500 J/kg, with a "skinny CAPE" profile—an indicator that can support high rain rates in convection. As stated in the previous AFD, upshear Corfidi vectors remain low further supporting the Flash flood threat. With already soaked ground conditions, the flash flood threat will remain elevated through the weekend. Along the I-10 corridor, from Beaumont to Lafayette, multiple models show expected rainfall amounts between 1 and 3 inches over the next 24 hours. The 'reasonable worst-case' scenario, represented by the 90th percentile, suggests widespread totals of 3 to 5 inches of rain.

By Sunday, the trough will exit our area, but widespread showers and thunderstorms will persist, shifting toward conditions more favorable for airmass convection. Temperatures will remain near seasonal norms, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s each afternoon. Persistent onshore flow will keep dew point values stuck in the mid to upper 70s through the start of next week.

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

The unsettled pattern will continue into next week, with PoPs remaining in the forecast each afternoon for the rest of the week.
At the surface, high pressure in the Atlantic will continue pushing warm, moist air across the region. Aloft, a ridge will be situated in the desert southwest far enough away to stall the upper-level pattern but not influence our weather. A series of troughs will squeeze past the ridge, impacting our area, with widespread rain and flooding being the primary concerns. River flooding could also begin to affect the region as conditions worsen.

Near the end of the work week, the previously mentioned ridge will begin rebuilding over the central U.S., which could limit convection depending on its exact position.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Convection has largely diminished with only BPT experiencing vicinity storms. These should continue diminishing with sundown.
Areas of patchy fog may develop overnight but conditions should remain clear for the most part. A few lower clouds will be possiblethrough sunrise.

Boundary will persist over the region allowing for another round of convection from 18 to 00Z Saturday.

11/Calhoun

MARINE
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be the main concern over the weekend and into next week. Light to moderate onshore flow will continue through at least the middle of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 71 91 73 92 / 20 60 20 60 LCH 76 90 76 90 / 20 50 10 60 LFT 75 90 75 90 / 30 60 10 70 BPT 75 90 76 90 / 10 50 10 50

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for LAZ033-044-045-055-073- 074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for TXZ201-261-262-515-516- 615-616.

GM...None.