Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Morgan City, LA

DISCUSSION
(This afternoon through next Thursday)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

This morning's weather maps show a cold front across northern Louisiana that is slowly making its way south. This is a weak cold front, with the main distinguishing feature being the wind shift to the north denoting the boundary. As the front moves toward the coast, it will become washed out, as the minor temperature gradient will become diffuse without any upper-level support.

Behind the front, building high pressure overhead will drop our temperatures down to seasonable levels through the weekend, cause light to calm winds, and keep our skies mostly clear. This will lead to optimal radiational cooling, with daytime highs in the mid-to-upper 70s and lows down into the upper 30s to 40s. In the upper levels, our flow will be almost completely zonal, advecting dry air from the desert Southwest. This dry air will keep our PWAT values consistently near or below 1 inch for the rest of the forecast period. This stable and dry air will create a subsidence inversion in the low levels, around 850 mb, that will cap convection and keep our rain chances to near zero for most of the forecast.

At the start of the workweek, a cutoff low will move across Texas, bringing low-end (around 10%) rain chances to Southeast Texas. At the surface, high pressure will continue to keep a stable and dry air mass in place. This calm weather pattern is well-forecasted, with ensemble guidance from the ECMWF and GFS both showing zero CAPE through the first half of next week. Most of the forecast will be persistence-based, with no real change from day-to-day weather. Our pattern looks to start changing on Wednesday as moisture return begins ahead of a frontal passage on Thursday or Friday. This far out, forecast details are sparse, but global models are not showing a lot of rain with this front, as the low levels are forecasted to remain dry with 925 mb RH values around 70% and drier air aloft.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

High pressure with a dry air mass will continue to build into tonight into Saturday. Mainly light winds can be expected with only high level clouds. Therefore, VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

07/Rua

MARINE
Issued at 1136 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Northwest flow will begin later this afternoon as a weak cold front moves offshore. No rain is expected with this front, but we will get some gusty winds near 20 knots starting tonight and lasting into Sunday morning. There is an exercise caution statement in effect for our western waters, but winds dont look strong enough to support a SCA. Winds will decrease after Saturday but will remain offshore for the rest of the forecast period.

We are entering a spring tide cycle and coastal sites will approach criteria for coastal flooding. No advisories or warnings are needed, but it will be something to keep an eye on for future forecasts.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1136 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

A dry and stable air mass will settle in over the region tonight and will stay in place through the start of next week. With this high-pressure setup, we are looking at more dry days with rain chances at or near zero. In addition, minRH values will drop down into the 30 to 40% range with maxRH values staying below 100% until the middle of next week. The only good news for fire partners is that winds will be light or calm most days this week.

Winds will start to increase on Thursday as a cold front moves across the region. Behind the front, gusty north winds will increase fire danger.

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.