Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Morgan City, LA

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

A weak frontal boundary will stall near the coast overnight. A relatively warm and moist air mass will remain trapped under the frontal inversion for areas along and south of the I-10 corridor with patchy to widespread fog likely with the best chance of seeing some dense sea fog mixing in is over lower southeast Texas and lower southwest Louisiana where a dense fog advisory will be in effect through 10 am Thursday.

The frontal boundary will wash out on Thursday with upper level ridging and light onshore flow bringing in an unseasonably warm and moist air mass for the forecast area. With the upper level ridge in place not expecting any significant chance for rain.

The main issue will be low clouds and fog potential during the night and early morning hours. With the light onshore flow pushing sea fog onshore, there will be the possibility of another dense fog advisory for portions of the area on Thursday night into Friday morning.

On Saturday, upper level storm system over the Eastern Pacific off the SoCal coast will get caught in the southern jet stream and move quickly off to the east.

This system will induce a surface low to develop over the north Texas/Southern Plains area with a Pacific Cold front in tow. Low level jet will develop ahead of this system making for a breezy day with gusts nearing 30 mph possible. The southerly winds will also bring in a good amount of Gulf moisture with PWAT values increasing in the afternoon to over the 75th percentile and near 1.25 inches.
The increasing forcing and moisture will allow for streamer type showers to develop across the forecast area on Saturday afternoon.

The main event during this period will be on Saturday night as the Pacific cold front meets up with the increasing moist air mass with PWAT over the 90th percentile and around 1.5 inches. The veering wind profile along with increasing low level jet between 40 and 50 knots will make for a well sheared environment. The question to how intense the shower and thunderstorm activity will be is the low level instability.

With timing more after sunset and cool Gulf water temperatures creating a marine layer, CAPE is expected to be rather low as the activity moves across and this will likely limit how strong the storms will be. Still with the respectable low level jet, some gusty winds may occur just from the rain drag. Speaking of the rain, with the high precipitable water and mean layer relative humidity values, some locally heavy down pours will be possible. Rain amounts look to average between 0.75 inches and 1.25 inches. 90th percentile rainfall amounts or the reasonably highest amounts are looking in the 2 to 3 inch range.

07/Rua

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1201 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

The low pressure and storm system will be moving off to the east on early Sunday bringing some drier air into the region. This will end significant rain chances early, although rapid around cloudiness and breezy northerly winds will likely occur into the afternoon.

The dry air mass will remain in place, along with upper level ridging that will allow for fair conditions and no chance for rain right through Mardi Gras and the end of the Carnival season.
Southerly flow will also resume by Monday (Lundi Gras) that will again bring unseasonably warm daytime temperatures.

07/Rua

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

A weak frontal system will stall near the coast overnight. A warm moist air mass will be trapped underneath the frontal boundary, with low clouds and fog developing with KLCH/KBPT already at LIFR conditions, expected KARA/KLFT to go to IFR by 12/10z and KAEX to MVFR shortly.

Conditions will slowly improve on Thursday morning with VFR after 12/18z.

07/Rua

MARINE
Issued at 1202 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

A weak frontal system will stall near the coast and wash out over the next day. This will keep light onshore winds along with a warm and moist air mass over cooler shelf waters to allow for the development of sea fog especially at night and during the morning. A low pressure system will develop on Saturday over the Southern Plains that will bring breezy southerly winds over the coastal waters along with building seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late Saturday into Saturday night as the low pushes a Pacific cold front across the coastal waters. Breezy offshore winds will then develop behind the front for Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1202 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

A relatively warm and moist air mass will remain over the region for the remainder of the week. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values are expected to range between 50 and 60 percent. No rain is expected through Friday, although patches to area of fog will be possible during the late night into the early morning hours. Rain chances will be in the forecast from Saturday afternoon through Saturday night as low pressure system moves a Pacific front through the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 73 53 78 57 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 75 57 74 59 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 74 57 76 58 / 10 0 0 0 BPT 77 56 74 59 / 0 0 0 10

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for LAZ073-074- 141-142-152-241>243-252>254.

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ515-516- 615-616.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ430-432-435-436- 450-452-455.