Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bayou Vista, LA

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

A decaying stationary boundary lingers from the ARKLATEX region eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Worth noting light winds through the mid morning hours may allow for patchy fog to develop across portions of Acadiana. Broader southeasterly onshore flow persists, however, especially west of the LA / TX border.
Slight strengthening of the gradient between the western Atlantic high pressure and low pressure troughing over the Four Corners area will help firm southerly winds across SWLA throughout the day.
Evening upper air analysis illustrates sufficient lapse rates above 7.0°C/km in the mid levels coupled with a ML CAPE in excess of 1000J/kg*K which can support organized convection throughout this morning and afternoon. That said, the synoptic environment is quite ambiguous for hi-res short range models to best capture precipitation taking place. Ongoing convection over Southern Plains will continue to wain and shift south / east toward the Gulf Coast.
A developing low level cap may slow / mitigate this activity during the mid morning hours before diurnal heating adds stronger surface based components. Needless to say, while a well defined severe threat is not in place, isolated wind / hail threats are still possible. More of a concern is the hydro aspect. Previous two days with a similar mesoscale / synoptic environment have allowed flash flooding to occur where favorable destabilization is realized amid a well moistened lower troposphere. Modifications in the first 6-12 hours of the forecast may be necessary later today to reflect the aforementioned trends.

Setting the short range mesoscale quandary aside, highs will warm into the low - mid 80's today while minor perturbations in the upper level flow modify into the Mississippi Valley into Thursday. At this time, the developing trough over the Four Corners region lifts across the Colorado Rockies shifting the stronger baroclinic environment further north into the Midwest and northern Mississippi Valley. PoPs still remain in the forecast as the local airmass will experience destabilization and allow clusters of convection to occur through the late afternoon- likely on an isolated to scattered scale. Friday, speed convergence aloft increases as broad upper level ridge builds north of Mexico into the Southern Plains.
Therefore, while temperatures trend further in the mid to perhaps the upper 80's, sfc conditions are favored to remain toward the dry side despite onshore flow.

Kowalski / 30

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Saturday, the region of stronger baroclinicity previously over the Midwest, now moves east and deepens a surface low into New England with a trailing frontal boundary hanging WSW over northern TX.
Locally conditions appear more stable with subsidence inversion developing roughing 2-4km AGL. Dry and warm weather is forecast to stay for the weekend and into the early work week Monday as ridging expands south of the eastern Great Lakes region following the aforementioned surface low trailing off the New England Coast into the NW Atlantic. This pattern will allow for warm and fairly dry weather to stay into the middle of the upcoming week ahead.

Kowalski / 30

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)

Radar showing clusters of TSRA north of AEX and LFT, not anticipating to affect these terminals this afternoon/early evening. VFR expected this evening, with IFR visibilities/ceilings expected by 06z, with intermittent LIFR visibilities/ceilings between 09-13z. Expecting another round of TSRA between 18-24z Wednesday for all sites with high shower and thunderstorm chances areawide.

08/DML

MARINE
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Winds and Seas are generally expected to remain out of the south while remaining well below hazard criteria. That said, areas of patchy fog can be seen on satellite hugging the coast near the Achafalaya attempting to spread west during the AM hours. Steady light SE breezes tonight expected to keep marine fog minimal to null.

30



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 84 64 84 66 / 60 30 60 10 LCH 84 69 84 70 / 50 20 30 10 LFT 84 69 84 69 / 50 20 40 10 BPT 82 70 84 70 / 50 20 30 10

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.