SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024

A cold front is stalling over the northern Gulf of Mexico allowing reinforcing N’ly flow across the region. The western 2/3rds of the CWA, generally north and west of the I-10 / I-24 corridor, have cleared precipitation with thinning cloud cover as expected. A slow progression of dry air entrainment shall allow portions coastal LA along the Atchafalaya basin to clear overnight after diurnal showers dissipate.

Concerning hazards: enhanced northerly flow from the pressure gradient exhibited by the robust high pressure regime over the Midwest combined low pressure troughing along the western Gulf of Mexico will created hazardous conditions offshore through the remainder of the weekend. A Gale Warning remains in effect until 7PM for offshore waters (20-60NM) from Cameron LA to High Island TX. A Small Craft Advisory for all offshore waters will continue as gusts up to 35kts with 9ft seas remain before easing and abating Sunday night with the advisory continuing until 7AM Monday CDT. Do note, highest winds and seas to be best favored over SW'rn offshore waters.

A refreshing lull in active weather will also be in place for much of the short term, inland. Breezy NE’ly winds and advection of cooler, or rather more mild air, will keep high temperatures down to the low to mid 80’s with skies continuing to thin / clear west to east. This mild environment with northerly flow will continue through remainder of Sunday and Monday as the high pressure pattern to the north broadens east over the Carolinas by Monday night.
Meanwhile the aforementioned cold front transition to a stationary boundary over the northern Gulf of Mexico with a gradual deepening of pressure beginning of the western Gulf of Mexico. Deepening low pressure will allow for the boundary to meander toward the coast and the potential for some isolated shower activity along coastal Parishes begins to creep back in as lower end PoPs trending into Tuesday morning.

Kowalski / 30

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024

The long-range outlook beginning Tuesday continues with the deepening low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico being the main focus leading into the mid week. At the present time of this discussion, the National Hurricane Center has yielded the area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche a 70% chance to develop into a tropical cyclone. It should be noted, at this time, there are zero forecast tropical impacts for SETX and SWLA as the feature is still quite unorganized and well away from the area. However, regardless of development, if any, there remains high confidence that low pressure troughing developing the SW Gulf will lift the stationary boundary inland across SETX / SWLA. Therefore, scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are favored during the mid week (Tuesday through Thursday). Several sample forecast soundings illustrate PWAT’s above 2.00”, well into the 90th Percentile. While it is too soon to elaborate on the nature of how the precipitation patterns will unfold during this time, inland Flash Flooding will be a threat that should be strongly monitored. Please note, whether or not tropical development occurs, the confidence in a flood threat at this time remains greater than a wind threat per latest analysis from the WPC and SPC. Naturally, with the influx of Gulf moisture and cloud cover, high temperatures will remain 5 - 10°F cooler than seasonable norms during this time frame.

By Friday, the unsettled tropical wave and associated weather will be shifting NE across the SECONUS. Precipitation will clear to the east with signals in the long range guidance showing a drying trend into next weekend.

Kowalski / 30

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024

A pressure gradient in the wake of a frontal passage will maintain elevated northerly flow through the day before weakening somewhat this evening. VFR ceilings will prevail through the period. AEX has been reporting HZ most of the afternoon and expect this to continue through the early morning which may periodically produce some minor visibility restrictions.

Jones

MARINE
Issued at 426 AM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024

The pressure gradient will gradually tighten causing winds and seas to increase. Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue through the rest of the period with a boundary remaining in the GoM. A cold front is expected to move over the waters, shifting winds out of the northeast and increasing in speeds tonight into Saturday. For the 0-20 and 20-60nm marine zones (with exception to GMZ470) a Small Craft Advisory will be in effect until Monday. With stronger gusts expected in GMZ470 a Gale Watch is in effect until this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 82 60 81 58 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 84 66 82 63 / 10 0 0 0 LFT 81 67 85 66 / 30 10 10 10 BPT 86 68 86 65 / 10 0 0 10

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ450-452-455- 470-472-475.