Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Erath, LA

DISCUSSION
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

A weak upper perturbation / nocturnal jet moving across northeast Texas made easy work of the moisture flux from today. A north- south axis of showers currently exists just west of the Sabine.
This area will slowly move east thru sunrise and may squeeze a few showers down to the AEX metro, but largely this shouldn't impact our forecast region.

Morning hours should be quiet, albeit perhaps a bit dreary. Winds increase with sunrise as the pressure gradient between boundary present in the Plains and weakening but present high over the Carolinas. Should be a similar day as far as breeziness goes, but still not anticipating a prolonged period of definite strong sustained winds. Thus, a wind advisory is not anticipated at this time.

Moisture will continue filtering in, filling out the column, through the morning. 00Z RAOB reported 1.61 inches PWAT, however as seen by mesoanalysis, PWAT values 1.80 to 2.00 inches (greater than 90th percentile) have already surged up the Texas coast, helping to generate the area of active showers seen tonight. This anomalously moist airmass will remain in place overtop our region, waiting in place for a forcing mechanism to generate some convection. An area of diurnal/seabreeze showers/storms looks to develop in south central LA before moving north. The typical quick downpour, windy summer storm should result.

The first round of active convection should then arrive by late Tuesday in the form of a decaying QLCS feature. The act of this boundary moving southeast will deflect remaining high pressure influence from the east, leaving the door open for active weather.
A series of disturbances will move over the northwest Gulf from Wednesday onward bringing about daily chances for widespread rainfall. From Tuesday nigh to the early weekend, it's reasonable to expect 2 to 4 inches area-wide with higher local totals. The flash flooding threat will increase each day with rounds of rainfall onto semi-wet antecedent conditions, so keep your flash flood response plans in the back of your mind as we near the end of the week.

11/Calhoun

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

While few areas of MVFR BKN ceiling exist this morning. Conditions will trend borderline VFR / MVFR today as diurnal mixing allow SCT / BKN cloud bases around 2-3kt through the afternoon. Isolated chances of precip remain in the forecast so some terminals, particularly across SETX and well interior SWLA may see VCSH.
Guidance is suggesting potentially heavy precip developing southward across central LA tonight around dusk. Coastal site TAFs will update in next TAF package to reflect timing as ceilings begin to drop and become OVC by evening twilight.

30

MARINE
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Tightened pressure gradient will remain in place through at least Tuesday morning. A boundary of disturbed weather is expected to near the region on Tuesday causing all remaining high pressure influence to back eastward. This decrease in pressure will loosen the gradient allowing winds and then seas to fall back on Tuesday, remaining low through the remainder of the week.

Rain chances increase Tuesday night and will remain elevated through the rest of the forecast as a series of disturbances cross the region. Winds will prevail somewhat low and onshore, however volatile winds and seas could be possible local to storms each day.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Tightened pressure gradient will remain in place through at least Tuesday morning. A boundary of disturbed weather is expected to near the region on Tuesday causing all remaining high pressure influence to back eastward. This decrease in pressure will loosen the gradient allowing winds to diminish before the arrival of a very wet and disturbed weather pattern from late Tuesday to the end of the week.

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ450-452-470- 472.