Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Erath, LA

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

High pressure extends from the Atlantic across the northern gulf coast while a ridge aloft extends from southern Mexico northward across the gulf. This pattern has been virtually stagnant and will continue to be in place through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.

Warm and humid conditions will continue with temps above climate averages, but most notably on the morning lows. No convection is anticipated.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Models diverge a bit in the extended, however the message is similar.

An upper disturbance will move across the plains and into the Great Lakes Region Monday through Wednesday. This will drive a cold front south into the northern gulf coast. A modest increase in rain chances will occur as the front moves through Tuesday and Wednesday. Surface convergence looks weak at this time and likely not able to take advantage of the higher moisture content that will be in place from the weeks of southerly flow.

A somewhat cooler and drier airmass will advect into the region late in the week, but here is where the models diverge a bit on the amount of cool down and drying out. The GFS still remains on the cooler side compared to the ECM. However one thing is persisting in the models, as the time frame gets closer, the front is appearing slightly weaker for our region when compared to earlier runs. The extended forecast remains in line with the NBM which is slightly cooler than the latest GFS or ECM during late week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Patchy MVFR ceilings will continue into the afternoon, however prevailing IFR to MVFR ceilings will occur tonight into early Sunday. Winds will be generally south during the period and gusty at times this afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Surface high pressure will continue to ridge across the northern Gulf through the remainder of the weekend into early next week.
This will allow a light to occasionally moderate southerly flow to persist.

An upper level ridge will keep any significant chance for showers out of the forecast through the weekend.

A cold front is expected to move into the coastal waters early Wednesday morning that will bring the next chance for showers or thunderstorms, along with a moderate northerly flow behind it.

Rua

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 73 92 71 91 / 10 10 0 0 LCH 75 87 74 86 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 75 87 75 87 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 75 89 76 88 / 0 0 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.