Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Erath, LA

DISCUSSION
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

As of 1245 AM, showers and storms are still present on radar, however most of this activity is over the gulf waters and immediate coast. They will continue to taper and move northeastward over the rest of the overnight period. In some areas, we are already seeing patchy fog form. While widespread dense fog is not expected, commuting overnight and early tomorrow morning should be done cautiously.

The stationary front continues to linger north of the area as it will for the next day before it retrogrades northward as a warm front. For the entire duration of the forecast period, isolated to numerous showers and storms can be expected with a near daily risk for excessive rainfall. Southerly flow will prevail for nearly the entire period, allowing the moisture rich gulf airmass to make this region its new home. Forecast PWATs will at a minimum be at or around the 90th percentile, with some days likely to exceed the daily max. Aloft, a series of upper disturbances will move through.
The extended Memorial Day Weekend will bear watching as troughing sets up over TX, with the possibility for an upper low to cutoff over ETX and linger into the early part of next work week before becoming reabsorbed into the broader flow.

The one benefit of the cloudy and rainy pattern is that it will help keep temperatures in check. MaxTs are expected to stay at or below climo norms for the next 7 days. MinTs are expected to be a few degrees above climo norms, however nothing terrible.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 737 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

VFR/MVFR conditions will trend outside of active weather, thought VFR may be small windows for some terminals. IFR / MVFR ceilings and VIS should trend MVFR / VFR into the mid afternoon- outside of convection. Developing or mature TS cells may be capable of high rain rates near surface. Guidance suggest scattered TSRA through tonight into 22nd AM. Surface winds will be light and at time variable, however, dominate direction by afternoon hour will be light southeast winds.

30



MARINE
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

A light to modest southeast to south flow around 5-15 kts and seas around 1-4 feet will persist through the end of the week and into the weekend. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain high through the weekend as well, as a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level disturbances produce several waves of precipitation.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

A light to moderate southerly flow will continue through the next several days bringing in rich amounts of Gulf moisture. Afternoon MinRH values will be around 70 percent or greater each day through the weekend. High chances for daily showers and storms are expected through the week into early next week as a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level disturbances provide waves of precipitation each day. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.