Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Apalachicola, FL

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

An MCS rolling across northern Mississippi and Alabama this morning will try to move southeastward through the morning, likely sending out an outflow boundary. This is in association with a shortwave riding along the northern side of our ridge. The outflow boundary that is left over across central Alabama and central Georgia this afternoon will provide a focus for isolated to scattered showers and storms to redevelop through the early evening hours. Given the presence of 35-40 kt of deep layer shear (unidirectional), ample instability, and mid-level dry air contributing to >1000 J/kg of DCAPE, some of these storms this afternoon and early evening could be strong to severe with strong wind gusts being the primary threat. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined areas along and north of a Abbeville to Tifton line in a Marginal Risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5).

Otherwise, it's going to be another hot day across the area. Highs in most places will be in the mid 90s with some upper 90s possible. Closer to the coast, highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Please use caution if outdoors today, especially those who are more sensitive to heat stress. Stay well hydrated, wear light clothing, and stay indoors or in the shade as much as possible. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s for most. Some patchy fog is possible late tonight into early Sunday morning.

Note that TLH's record high for today is 95, set in 1933. The current deterministic forecast calls for 97. The NBM gives about a 60-70% chance of exceeding 95.

SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

The ridge flattens more with another shortwave riding along the northern periphery. This will bring another complex of showers and storms to parts of central Georgia with our Georgia counties being on the southern edge of the storm potential. The storm threat is pretty similar to today's, though mainly focused over southern Georgia. The environment is also pretty similar with ample shear and instability as well as some mid-level dry air. Thus, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined areas from Fort Gaines to Tifton northward in a Marginal Risk of severe weather again for Sunday afternoon for the threat of strong, damaging wind gusts. Those that don't see the rain will once again reach the mid-90s with upper 80s to near 90 near the coast. Lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

The ridge builds back in again on Monday, so our rain chances go down, and our temperatures come back up. More widespread mid to perhaps upper 90s are expected Monday afternoon with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

The ridge begins to shift eastward Tuesday as troughing begins to dig across the eastern US for the latter half of the week. The heat will still be in play Tuesday with one more day in the mid-90s before a cold front approaches Wednesday. As the front arrives, scattered showers and storms will develop along the front. The environment will yet again be supportive of a few strong to maybe severe storms given ample shear, plentiful instability, and mid-level dry air increasing the DCAPE in forecast soundings. Thus, we'll have to watch for a strong wind gust or two in the storms Wednesday. The front clears the area by Thursday with drier and cooler air in its wake.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

IFR to MVFR cigs continue this morning with stratus still overspread across the area. However, some breaks are already appearing. All sites will return to VFR within the next 2-3 hours.
A complex of TSRA over central AL will move southeastward this morning while gradually weakening. Have maintained the PROB30 groups for TSRA for DHN and ABY, but moved timing up a few hours to generally 17-23z. Tonight, another round of stratus and patchy fog is expected tonight with IFR to MVFR cigs indicated for now with MVFR vsbys for all but ABY after 08z-09z.

MARINE
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

High pressure over the western Atlantic nosing into the eastern Gulf will result in predominantly light southwesterly winds for the next several days. Seas will be around 1 to 2 feet each day with no significant marine impacts anticipated through Tuesday. By mid- week, west to southwest winds will increase to near cautionary levels ahead of an approaching cold front.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

Southwesterly transport winds around 15 mph and mixing heights increasing to 5,000-6,000 feet each afternoon will result in high dispersions across inland areas with good dispersions near the coast. Isolated showers and storms will be possible across the AL and GA zones this afternoon and again Sunday afternoon, mainly north of a Dothan to Fitzgerald line. Gusty erratic winds and dangerous lightning will be the primary threats with stronger storms.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

Outside of locally heavy downpours from storms, significant rainfall is not anticipated. Thus, there are no widespread flood concerns at this time.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 96 71 95 70 / 0 0 10 0 Panama City 85 73 85 73 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 93 71 92 69 / 30 10 20 0 Albany 94 72 94 71 / 30 10 30 0 Valdosta 96 71 96 70 / 0 0 20 0 Cross City 90 68 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 84 72 84 72 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.