Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Apalachicola, FL

SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

An upper level ridge over the Atlantic will continue to control the weather pattern through the upcoming week and next weekend as light low-level southerly flow remains in place. This ridge will likely be strongest Tuesday through Thursday and this should lead to a noticeable reduction in rain chances as drier mid-level air rotates around the southern portion of the ridge and into the southeast. This is seen in current ensemble precipitable waters dropping to around 1.5 to 1.75 inches during the middle of the week compared to the 1.8 to 2.1 inches we've seen recently.
Additionally, the weak upper level support we've seen over the last few days will be lifting off to the north with only remnant support remaining over our southeast Alabama counties. Even with the ridge in place, adequate low-level moisture and plenty of instability thanks to warmer temperatures should allow isolated to scattered showers and storms during this drier stretch. Given climatological norms for rain chances as PWATS drop, did lower POPs 10 to 20% compared to current NBM guidance which is likely overdone in the upcoming pattern.

Guidance begins to diverge somewhat into the latter part of the week and weekend, but ensemble means suggest the warmer and drier conditions will likely continue along with temperatures possibly jumping back into the mid to upper 90s. With moist southeasterly flow still in place, it's possible we'll begin to see increasing heat-related concerns as low level moisture and hot temperatures begin to elevate our heat indices into the low 100s, nearing heat- advisory criteria.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 711 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Shower and thunderstorms will continue to diminish over the next couple of hours. A quiet night is expected, with a small chance for patchy fog and/or periods of MVFR ceilings overnight. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected tomorrow.

MARINE
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

High pressure over the western Atlantic extending into the Gulf will result in a light south to southwest flow for the next several days. Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms continue, especially during the overnight and morning hours each day.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Widespread wetting rains will continue over the next several days, precluding any fire weather concerns. Lightning and erratic gusty winds can be expected in thunderstorms. Fair to moderate dispersions are expected through the period, with high dispersions possible over our southwestern Georgia districts for Tuesday and across the wiregrass regions for Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Locally heavy downpours in storms will lead to a low-end threat of localized nuisance-type flooding (ponding on roads and minor flooding of poor-drainage areas) over the next several days. Given how wet it has been, it will only take about 2.5 to 3 inches of rain within an hour to cause flash flooding or about 3 to 4 inches within 3 hours. Thus, very localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out, but the Weather Prediction Center does not have our area outlined in any formal risks for excessive rainfall. No river flooding is anticipated given the scattered nature of rainfall.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 72 89 74 92 / 30 60 10 50 Panama City 78 89 78 89 / 50 60 40 60 Dothan 72 90 73 90 / 30 60 10 60 Albany 72 91 74 92 / 20 50 10 50 Valdosta 73 92 73 94 / 20 50 10 40 Cross City 73 91 72 92 / 30 50 10 40 Apalachicola 77 87 78 87 / 40 60 30 40

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.