Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Apalachicola, FL

SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(This Afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1148 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

A fairly benign weather pattern over the next several days, which looks more like meteorological summer, with diurnal showers and thunderstorms and record high temperatures possible. The most impactful aspect of this looks to be the potential for fog each morning. This pattern will be compliments of a strong subtropical ridge over the Southwest Atlantic with the westerlies displaced further to the north.

Cannot rule out a thunderstorm with wind gusts around 40 mph today, mainly west of the Apalachicola and Flint Rivers, with ML CAPE around 1k J/kg and DCAPE > 1k J/kg. While DCAPE is more questionable Friday into this weekend, deep layer winds are slightly stronger, maintaining the potential for isolated 40 mph wind gusts with storms.

As mentioned in the key messages, recurring rounds of nighttime and morning fog will continue through this weekend. For tonight into Friday morning, a Medium (30-70 percent) chance of dense fog mainly in the FL Big Bend, Eastern Panhandle, and Southeast Alabama. If confidence increases further, a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed.

Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through the first half of next week with highs well into the 80s away from the cooler waters of the Gulf coast. As such, there is a low to medium chance of reaching record high temperatures late in the week and this weekend.

Looking ahead, rain chances will start to increase next Wednesday, particularly NW of a PAM-ABY line, as low pressure starts to move east along or inland of the Gulf Coast.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

By this afternoon, cigs will top out above 030 this afternoon, though low clouds will cling to the Panhandle coast, not far from ECP. A few disorganized showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two are expected this afternoon, especially near DHN, ABY, and VLD. Fog will be a threat tonight at all terminals. Earliest development may occur at ECP, where sea fog will be a contributor.
Friday morning will feature typical timing for lifting cigs and vsbys, though scattering will struggle given the moistness of the air mass.

MARINE
Issued at 1148 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Over the next several days, the coastal waters will be under the influence of a subtropical ridge of high pressure over the Southwest Atlantic, with mainly dry weather expected. The ridge will maintain southeast winds around 10 to 15 knots through the period.
Daily afternoon seabreezes will prevail over the nearshore waters. Sea fog will also be a concern through this weekend due to the warm and moist air mass over winter-chilled waters.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1148 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

A very warm and moist pattern over the next several days, with much above normal temperatures, and near-record temperatures possible.
Brief wetting rains are possible generally northwest of the FL Big Bend mainly during the afternoons each day, but coverage will be limited, with an isolated thunderstorm possible. Any storms may have erratic and gusty winds. Mostly fair dispersion away from the Gulf coast on Friday with the potential for high dispersion on both Saturday and Sunday.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 1148 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

The latest US Drought Monitor depicts areas of severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought across much of the region. Over the next week, rainfall will be limited to mainly scattered convection, and will be largely inconsequential. Amounts are forecast to generally range up to a half an inch in the FL Big Bend, and around a half and inch to an inch northwest of there into Southeastern AL.

For local drought info & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 63 82 63 82 / 10 20 0 10 Panama City 63 78 63 79 / 10 10 0 10 Dothan 61 83 62 84 / 20 50 0 20 Albany 62 84 63 84 / 20 30 10 20 Valdosta 63 86 63 86 / 20 30 20 10 Cross City 62 86 62 87 / 20 20 10 10 Apalachicola 63 72 62 72 / 10 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.