Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Barataria, LA

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Areas of patchy dense fog seem likely this morning as moisture pools ahead of a stalling front this morning. Main hesitation with issuing a dense fog advisory at this time is that forecast soundings as well as HDC and TMSY VAD wind profiles show that 10-15kt winds will remain right above the surface at only a few hundred feet up. So, turbulent mixing could promote any sort of wind to transfer to the surface and disrupt fog formation as this current setup favors more of a radiational type fog regime.
Therefore, confidence is lower at the time for widespread dense fog this morning, but will keep an eye on trends and those winds to see if a dense fog advisory is needed.

As far as the daytime goes, the second upper- level currently traversing the Yellowstone River Valley in Montana is expected to dig southeastward across the Central Plains today. That specific piece of energy is expected to transition and eject across the mid-MS River Valley later today, keeping us in zonal flow throughout the day today and allows it's associated cold front to stall out north of the area today. This will promote slight warm air advection ahead of it as well as some compressional warming, so temps were slightly bumped up from NBM to account for that. We remain slightly above the median PW for this time of year, but with fairly dry boundary layer conditions and an inversion at 700mb, expect at most isolated showers throughout the day today.

The next piece of energy behind the one ejecting across the mid-MS River Valley is expected to dig deeper across the central and southern plains on Sunday. This will bring a strong arctic front to the area by mid-morning on Sunday. The strongest of its cold air advection looks to start Sunday evening, so highs looks like it will be cooler, but still in the upper 60s and low 70s on Sunday. The strongest of the winds also look like it will take place shortly after midday on Sunday as winds look to gust up to 20-25mph across the area, which is not Wind Advisory criteria, but definitely breezy. The cold air advection will continue into Sunday night, and decided to stick with the NBM's mid 30s to low 40s lows for Sunday night/Monday morning since the guidance was already at the 25th percentile.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

The previously mentioned cold air advection looks to still be continuing behind the front and on the backside of the upper-level trough on Monday. Therefore, highs were bumped down slightly to the low to mid 50s across the area on Monday. Due to the strong advection, winds will still be elevated and gusting in the 15-20mph range. However, as we get into Monday night and Tuesday morning, shortwave ridging across the central plains looks to develop a surface high across the northern Gulf coast. This high will promote effective radiational cooling on top of the arctic airmass that was advected in the previous days. Therefore, the combination of those things will likely lead to widespread freeze conditions along and north of the I-10/12 corridor Tuesday morning. The NBM was hovering around the 75th percentile, so the 50th was blended in to account for the radiative cooling which brought freezing temps down to the I-10/12 corridor north of the lake. The Pearl and Pascagoula River Basins were lowered slightly more than that, which brought in a very small area close to a low of 25 near Bogalusa.

On Tuesday, models agree the the shortwave ridging will traverse eastward across the SE CONUS and move the surface high over us to the east as well. This will promote warm and moist air advection into the area on Tuesday, causing our highs to rebound in the upper 50s and low 60s. We will continue to warm up throughout the end of the week as that surface high remains to our east and another stronger ridge makes its way across the Central Plains as highs look to top out in the mid to upper 70s Thursday through Saturday.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 450 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Vis is the biggest issue this morning. Vis will bounce through sunrise as patchy cloud cover at around SCT-BKN025 moves through but some terminals could see these values move to 1/4sm or less for a short duration at or just after sunrise. The cloud cover has been the issue with dense fog not being able to set up this morning. Cigs will also be in and out this morning reaching MVFR for most sites while those with patchy fog will see cigs in the IFR or even LIFR ranges. Cigs and vis will rise after sunrise.

MARINE
Issued at 1146 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Light southwesterly winds will remain in place across the waters today as the Mid Atlantic surface high shifts offshore to the east.
By Sunday, a strong cold front will push across the coastal waters, bringing strong northerly/offshore winds of 20-25 knots behind it.
The strongest of the winds looks like it will be from midday Sunday through Monday night. These winds will also promote 9-11 feet waves in our outer waters during that same timeframe. Needless to say, at least Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for Sunday through Monday night. A surface high starts filtering into the area on Tuesday and light winds and calmer seas return with it.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 81 54 65 32 / 10 20 0 0 BTR 85 59 69 36 / 10 20 0 0 ASD 82 59 71 35 / 0 20 0 0 MSY 85 64 74 43 / 0 10 0 0 GPT 80 63 72 39 / 0 20 0 0 PQL 81 60 73 35 / 0 10 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.