LONG TERM
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Omega blocking aloft will keep ridging in place over Texas through the end of the week. This puts 500mb heights around 590-592 dam over SE Texas, with 850mb temperatures ranging between 17-21C. Hot, above normal conditions should continue Friday into portions of the weekend, with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Rain chances will be slim, though isolated, diurnally driven showers over the coast and Gulf waters cannot be ruled out during this period.

An upper level low over the Four corners is progged to push towards the northeast this weekend, flattening the upper ridge and shifting it's center over SE Texas. PWs see a brief, noticeable drop of 1.0- 1.4" with increased subsidence bringing robust capping between 800- 700mb. This should still suppress rain chances for inland areas, though isolated coastal showers underneath this cap remain possible, with PoPs gradually increasing into the upcoming week. A slight drop in 850mb temperatures and decreasing thickness 1000-500mb should ease surface temperatures down for next week. This means highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and lows largely in the 70s. The Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area could see lows drop below the 70 degree mark.

Global deterministic models suggest that ridging aloft will break down on Monday/Tuesday. On the other hand, Grand Ensemble clusters lean towards a zonal flow regime over SE Texas during this period.
In either case, both seem to allude to a more active weather pattern than the current status quo.

03

AVIATION
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

VFR conditions and light winds should mainly persist. Exception might be between 9-14z Thurs morning when some terminals, probably non-metro, will see a bit of patchy fog and potential lower ceilings in the vicinity. 47

MARINE
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Light onshore winds and low seas of 1 to 3 feet can be expected over the next several days. Isolated showers and storms will be possible over the Gulf waters, especially this weekend and early next week.

03

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 97 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 95 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 90 80 90 80 / 10 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.