Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oak Island, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A southwesterly flow pattern aloft remains prevalent across the region between an upper level ridge over the Gulf and an upper level trough lifting across the vicinity of the Four Corners. A persistent southerly to southeasterly surface flow also continues between ridging over the southeastern U.S. and adjacent Gulf and a trough of low pressure over the Plains. A resultant warm and muggy pattern continues with partly to mostly cloudy skies and temperatures mostly in the lower to mid 80s this afternoon. Very weak lift associated with the persistent southerly to southeasterly flow could result in a few sprinkles or a light rain shower this afternoon into early this evening, but the overall chance of measurable rainfall remains less than 10% through tonight.

The upper level trough will move across the central Plains on Wednesday. The bulk of moisture and lift within the southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this system will remain to our northwest and north over central and northern portions of the state of Texas, where better chances of showers and thunderstorms will be favored Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday evening. An isolated shower or thunderstorm may develop as far south as the Brazos Valley or Piney Woods Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, but coverage looks to remain less than 20%. The warm and humid weather pattern will continue through the middle to latter part of the week underneath the persistent southwesterly flow aloft, along with continued southeasterly to southerly surface flow. The probability for measurable rainfall remains around 10% or less through Friday.

The next large scale trough is still forecast to translate over the central and northern CONUS on Saturday. A potent shortwave rounding the base of this feature will quickly clip across the central Plains into the Upper Midwest Friday through Saturday afternoon. An associated cold front is forecast to push through Southeast Texas Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing a wind shift to the north.
Increased ascent with shortwave impulses embedded with west- southwest flow aloft and also along the cold front will bring an increasing chance (up to 40-60%) of showers and thunderstorms to our forecast area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Rain chances currently look to diminish going into Sunday morning, though a few showers could persist along our southern and southwestern zones.
Temperatures will trend cooler behind the front with lows on Saturday night forecast to range in the 50s over our central and northern counties and in the lower 60s along the coast. Highs on Sunday look to range in the lower to mid 70s. Another shortwave impulse embedded within zonal flow aloft may bring another low (20- 30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms to portions of our area on Monday. The relatively cooler temperatures otherwise look to continue Sunday night into Monday with overnight lows in the 50s inland to 60s along the coast, with highs on Monday afternoon forecast to range from around 70 degrees to the mid 70s.

AVIATION
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

MVFR and few pockets of IFR CIGs should scatter & lift later this morning/early in the afternoon. Gusty south to southeast winds are expected throughout the day, diminishing once again this evening.
Expect another round of MVFR CIGs overnight with pockets of IFR CIGs possible early Wednesday morning.

03

MARINE
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A moderate onshore flow will generally continue through the week and small craft operators will need to exercise caution at times.
The persistent onshore flow will keep water levels elevated through the week with values up to 2.5-3.0 ft above MLLW around times of high tide. The onshore flow and increased water levels may result in wave run-up along Gulf facing beaches as well as an increased risk of rip currents. A cold front with an associated chance of showers and thunderstorms will push offshore late Saturday into early Sunday. Strong offshore winds and increased seas will likely prompt the issuance of Small Craft Advisories by late this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 68 84 69 88 / 0 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 70 84 70 88 / 0 10 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 73 79 72 80 / 0 10 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Wednesday morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.