Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oak Island, TX
October 4, 2023 9:17 PM CDT (02:17 UTC)
Sunrise 7:13AM Sunset 7:03PM Moonrise 9:54PM Moonset 11:50AM
GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 343 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 4 2023
Tonight..Southeast winds around 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots this evening, then becoming south around 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming choppy this evening, then becoming slightly choppy after midnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South winds around 10 knots, becoming east in the late morning and afternoon. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..North winds around 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots late. Bay waters smooth, becoming slightly choppy late. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers.
Friday night..North winds around 15 knots, becoming northeast 20 to 25 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming rough. A chance of showers early in the evening.
Saturday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming north around 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters rough, becoming choppy in the afternoon.
Saturday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northeast around 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy after midnight.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Sunday night..Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Bay waters smooth.
Monday..East winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southeast winds around 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots this evening, then becoming south around 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming choppy this evening, then becoming slightly choppy after midnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South winds around 10 knots, becoming east in the late morning and afternoon. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..North winds around 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots late. Bay waters smooth, becoming slightly choppy late. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers.
Friday night..North winds around 15 knots, becoming northeast 20 to 25 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming rough. A chance of showers early in the evening.
Saturday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming north around 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters rough, becoming choppy in the afternoon.
Saturday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northeast around 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy after midnight.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Sunday night..Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Bay waters smooth.
Monday..East winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 343 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 4 2023
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
another messy day on the waters and coastal areas today with moderate onshore winds continuing into tonight along with elevated seas and tides and periods of showers and Thunderstorms. This general setup can be expected for a portion of Thursday as well. A cold front is forecast to push off the coast Thursday, and is expected to be followed by moderate to strong offshore winds Friday night as cooler air moves over the warmer water.
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
another messy day on the waters and coastal areas today with moderate onshore winds continuing into tonight along with elevated seas and tides and periods of showers and Thunderstorms. This general setup can be expected for a portion of Thursday as well. A cold front is forecast to push off the coast Thursday, and is expected to be followed by moderate to strong offshore winds Friday night as cooler air moves over the warmer water.
Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KHGX 042337 AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 637 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023
Scattered thunderstorms continue to move across the area this afternoon, although a combination of slightly lower instability and faster storm motions have so far resulted in slightly lower rainfall totals compared to yesterday for many locations. That being said, given the more moist soil conditions present in the wake of yesterday's heavy rainfall along the coast, there remains an isolated flash flooding threat for locations to the south of I-10 and west of I-45 for the remainder of the afternoon as storms continue to move onshore. If you have any travel plans in these locations, remain weather aware and cognizant of local road conditions before heading out.
There will be a brief lull in rainfall activity overnight before a more organized line of thunderstorms moves in from the north ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Latest high resolution models currently place the line of storms in the Brazos Valley at around 4- 5 AM, the Houston Metro area around 7-8AM, and the coast by around 9- 10AM. While relatively limited instability and shear will not present a major severe weather threat, it's still possible that we will see some gusty winds along the line (although unlikely posing a significant damage threat). Additionally, with abundant low-level moisture remaining in place, some locally heavy downpours are possible. In general, 1-2" of new rainfall are expected across most of the area although some locally higher totals depending on the exact location of any stronger storms that develop. As the line of storms moves offshore by mid-morning, lingering showers will continue to move through the area through late tomorrow afternoon before conditions begin to clear in the evening.
Widespread cloud cover and rainfall will bring slightly cooler high temperatures tomorrow, with most locations in the low to mid 80s. A shift to north winds overnight will begin a cooling trend that will arrive in full force as a reinforcing boundary crosses the area this weekend. Lows tomorrow night look to drop into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with dew points lowering concurrently.
Cady
LONG TERM
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023
Based on the trends of the 12Z CAMs, Friday's forecast looks quite a bit drier than previously anticipated. With what looks to be an MCS pushing through the area on Thursday morning along the first cold front, that should stabilize things for Friday. PW values will still remain elevated for at least the morning hours across our southern areas (around 1.6" to 2.0"+ south of I-10), so some lingering stratiform rain will be likely through the morning and early afternoon.
Drier air will filter in throughout the day as a reinforcement cold front (cold front 2: electric boogaloo) pushes through leading to PW values decreasing to 0.7"-1.0" by Friday night. Dew points will also be on a sharp decline down to the 40s/50s by Friday night as well. Strong surface high pressure building in behind the front will tighten the pressure gradient leading to breezy northerly winds in the wake of the front Friday night to Saturday morning. We haven't issued a Wind Advisory since late April, but that may change as the barrier islands may see sustained winds around 25 mph with higher gusts possible. So, be advised if you have any loose Halloween decorations...although flying ghosts do fit the mood of spooky season.
With drier air in place and plentiful cold air advection, an absolutely pleasant weekend is in store for us...and after the summer we've had, we definitely deserve it. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s with lows mainly in the 50s. Some areas around the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods may see upper 40s for lows on Saturday night! Enjoy it while you can though, because things change once again going into early next week. You'll be as disappointed as I was when I found out National Taco Day isn't on a Tuesday for some reason.
With surface high pressure pushing off to our east early next week, onshore flow returns by Monday along with subtle mid-level ridging. This will lead to an upward temperature trend with highs going back into the mid to upper 80s along with increasing rain chances as well along the coast. We're still monitoring for the potential for the remnants of an East Pacific system to bring increased moisture and maybe even a coastal low in western Gulf of Mexico early next week, but uncertainty remains rather high for this. Something to keep an eye on though for sure!
Batiste
AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023
SHRA activity should continue to decrease early this evening, but could have some lingering MVFR ceilings and/or visibilities. SHRA/TSRA currently found across N TX return to the area late tonight through the day tomorrow associated with a cold front. Current timing (give or take an hour)
has activity moving into the CLL/UTS areas 08Z-09Z, the CXO/IAH/HOU/SGR areas 10Z-12Z and the LBX/GLS areas 11Z-13Z. Expecting MVFR and possible IFR ceilings/visibilities, and some spots could see some gusty winds with the initial line of storms. SHRA/RA and MVFR conditions (clouds and maybe some fog too) could linger into the late morning through afternoon hours with improving conditions eventually developing from north to south as the afternoon progresses. SE to S winds ahead of the storm complex will shift to the N and NE behind the front. 42
MARINE
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023
Chances for showers and thunderstorms remain over the next few days, especially on Thursday late morning to the afternoon as a line of storms accompany a cold front pushing through. There may be some lingering showers behind that front that persist into Friday morning before drier air pushes in and clears things out. Keep in mind that winds and waves will be higher in and around thunderstorms. Caution flags remain in effect for the Gulf waters through tonight before winds begin to relax ahead of the first cold front early Thursday morning. Additional hazards that are in place are a Coastal Flood Statement due to tide levels nearing 3.5 feet MLLW around high tide early Friday morning along with a high risk of rip currents.
Moderate to strong northeasterly winds will prevail in the wake of the front with advisory level conditions expected. It's not entirely out of the question for a few gusts to approach gale force on Friday night/early Saturday morning. Onshore flow returns early next week along with increasing moisture and rain chances off the coast.
Batiste
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023
A Flood Watch remains in effect until 7pm CDT Wednesday evening for Wharton, Matagorda, Fort Bend, Brazoria, and Galveston Counties.
Brazoria County was the hotspot for excessive rainfall once again today with an additional 3 to 6 inches of rain falling just east of Angleton. The fire department in the city of Freeport (southern Brazoria County) reported widespread street flooding earlier in the day, which prompted the issuance of a Flash Flood Warning. Towards the mid-afternoon hours, a few slow-moving and backbuilding thunderstorms prompted the issuance of Flood Advisories in Matagorda and parts of Jackson/Wharton counties due to high rainfall rates being experienced for a prolonged period of time over one area. As of right now, there are no river flooding issues and no significant issues are expected.
Batiste
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 72 82 68 83 / 80 90 20 10 Houston (IAH) 75 84 70 85 / 30 90 40 20 Galveston (GLS) 80 86 75 85 / 20 80 60 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ226-227-236>238- 336>338.
High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ350-355-370-375.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 637 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023
Scattered thunderstorms continue to move across the area this afternoon, although a combination of slightly lower instability and faster storm motions have so far resulted in slightly lower rainfall totals compared to yesterday for many locations. That being said, given the more moist soil conditions present in the wake of yesterday's heavy rainfall along the coast, there remains an isolated flash flooding threat for locations to the south of I-10 and west of I-45 for the remainder of the afternoon as storms continue to move onshore. If you have any travel plans in these locations, remain weather aware and cognizant of local road conditions before heading out.
There will be a brief lull in rainfall activity overnight before a more organized line of thunderstorms moves in from the north ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Latest high resolution models currently place the line of storms in the Brazos Valley at around 4- 5 AM, the Houston Metro area around 7-8AM, and the coast by around 9- 10AM. While relatively limited instability and shear will not present a major severe weather threat, it's still possible that we will see some gusty winds along the line (although unlikely posing a significant damage threat). Additionally, with abundant low-level moisture remaining in place, some locally heavy downpours are possible. In general, 1-2" of new rainfall are expected across most of the area although some locally higher totals depending on the exact location of any stronger storms that develop. As the line of storms moves offshore by mid-morning, lingering showers will continue to move through the area through late tomorrow afternoon before conditions begin to clear in the evening.
Widespread cloud cover and rainfall will bring slightly cooler high temperatures tomorrow, with most locations in the low to mid 80s. A shift to north winds overnight will begin a cooling trend that will arrive in full force as a reinforcing boundary crosses the area this weekend. Lows tomorrow night look to drop into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with dew points lowering concurrently.
Cady
LONG TERM
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023
Based on the trends of the 12Z CAMs, Friday's forecast looks quite a bit drier than previously anticipated. With what looks to be an MCS pushing through the area on Thursday morning along the first cold front, that should stabilize things for Friday. PW values will still remain elevated for at least the morning hours across our southern areas (around 1.6" to 2.0"+ south of I-10), so some lingering stratiform rain will be likely through the morning and early afternoon.
Drier air will filter in throughout the day as a reinforcement cold front (cold front 2: electric boogaloo) pushes through leading to PW values decreasing to 0.7"-1.0" by Friday night. Dew points will also be on a sharp decline down to the 40s/50s by Friday night as well. Strong surface high pressure building in behind the front will tighten the pressure gradient leading to breezy northerly winds in the wake of the front Friday night to Saturday morning. We haven't issued a Wind Advisory since late April, but that may change as the barrier islands may see sustained winds around 25 mph with higher gusts possible. So, be advised if you have any loose Halloween decorations...although flying ghosts do fit the mood of spooky season.
With drier air in place and plentiful cold air advection, an absolutely pleasant weekend is in store for us...and after the summer we've had, we definitely deserve it. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s with lows mainly in the 50s. Some areas around the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods may see upper 40s for lows on Saturday night! Enjoy it while you can though, because things change once again going into early next week. You'll be as disappointed as I was when I found out National Taco Day isn't on a Tuesday for some reason.
With surface high pressure pushing off to our east early next week, onshore flow returns by Monday along with subtle mid-level ridging. This will lead to an upward temperature trend with highs going back into the mid to upper 80s along with increasing rain chances as well along the coast. We're still monitoring for the potential for the remnants of an East Pacific system to bring increased moisture and maybe even a coastal low in western Gulf of Mexico early next week, but uncertainty remains rather high for this. Something to keep an eye on though for sure!
Batiste
AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023
SHRA activity should continue to decrease early this evening, but could have some lingering MVFR ceilings and/or visibilities. SHRA/TSRA currently found across N TX return to the area late tonight through the day tomorrow associated with a cold front. Current timing (give or take an hour)
has activity moving into the CLL/UTS areas 08Z-09Z, the CXO/IAH/HOU/SGR areas 10Z-12Z and the LBX/GLS areas 11Z-13Z. Expecting MVFR and possible IFR ceilings/visibilities, and some spots could see some gusty winds with the initial line of storms. SHRA/RA and MVFR conditions (clouds and maybe some fog too) could linger into the late morning through afternoon hours with improving conditions eventually developing from north to south as the afternoon progresses. SE to S winds ahead of the storm complex will shift to the N and NE behind the front. 42
MARINE
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023
Chances for showers and thunderstorms remain over the next few days, especially on Thursday late morning to the afternoon as a line of storms accompany a cold front pushing through. There may be some lingering showers behind that front that persist into Friday morning before drier air pushes in and clears things out. Keep in mind that winds and waves will be higher in and around thunderstorms. Caution flags remain in effect for the Gulf waters through tonight before winds begin to relax ahead of the first cold front early Thursday morning. Additional hazards that are in place are a Coastal Flood Statement due to tide levels nearing 3.5 feet MLLW around high tide early Friday morning along with a high risk of rip currents.
Moderate to strong northeasterly winds will prevail in the wake of the front with advisory level conditions expected. It's not entirely out of the question for a few gusts to approach gale force on Friday night/early Saturday morning. Onshore flow returns early next week along with increasing moisture and rain chances off the coast.
Batiste
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023
A Flood Watch remains in effect until 7pm CDT Wednesday evening for Wharton, Matagorda, Fort Bend, Brazoria, and Galveston Counties.
Brazoria County was the hotspot for excessive rainfall once again today with an additional 3 to 6 inches of rain falling just east of Angleton. The fire department in the city of Freeport (southern Brazoria County) reported widespread street flooding earlier in the day, which prompted the issuance of a Flash Flood Warning. Towards the mid-afternoon hours, a few slow-moving and backbuilding thunderstorms prompted the issuance of Flood Advisories in Matagorda and parts of Jackson/Wharton counties due to high rainfall rates being experienced for a prolonged period of time over one area. As of right now, there are no river flooding issues and no significant issues are expected.
Batiste
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 72 82 68 83 / 80 90 20 10 Houston (IAH) 75 84 70 85 / 30 90 40 20 Galveston (GLS) 80 86 75 85 / 20 80 60 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ226-227-236>238- 336>338.
High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ350-355-370-375.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX | 16 mi | 47 min | ESE 8G | 82°F | 29.86 | |||
| RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX | 16 mi | 47 min | SSE 14G | 82°F | 83°F | 29.88 | ||
| HIST2 | 18 mi | 47 min | SSE 7G | 83°F | 87°F | 29.89 | ||
| EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX | 20 mi | 47 min | SSE 14G | 84°F | 82°F | 29.87 | ||
| GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX | 24 mi | 47 min | SSE 19G | 84°F | 83°F | 29.85 | ||
| GTOT2 | 28 mi | 47 min | SSE 8G | 84°F | 84°F | 29.87 | ||
| GRRT2 | 30 mi | 47 min | SE 13G | 83°F | 81°F | 29.84 | ||
| NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX | 31 mi | 47 min | SSE 5.1G | 81°F | 85°F | 29.84 | ||
| SRST2 - Sabine Pass, TX | 35 mi | 77 min | SE 16G | 83°F | 29.90 | |||
| 42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX | 36 mi | 37 min | SE 19G | 84°F | 84°F | 29.86 | 76°F | |
| PORT2 - 8770475 - Port Arthur, TX | 42 mi | 47 min | ESE 8G | 82°F | 83°F | 29.87 | ||
| TXPT2 | 45 mi | 47 min | SE 18G | 82°F | 83°F | 29.85 | ||
| LUIT2 | 49 mi | 47 min | SE 12G | 84°F | 82°F | 29.85 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Wind History from EFD
(wind in knots)Point Barrow
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:38 AM CDT 1.46 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM CDT Sunrise
Wed -- 12:50 PM CDT Moonset
Wed -- 07:01 PM CDT Sunset
Wed -- 07:20 PM CDT 0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:54 PM CDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:38 AM CDT 1.46 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM CDT Sunrise
Wed -- 12:50 PM CDT Moonset
Wed -- 07:01 PM CDT Sunset
Wed -- 07:20 PM CDT 0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:54 PM CDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Point Barrow, Trinity Bay, Texas, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.9 |
| 1 am |
| 1.1 |
| 2 am |
| 1.3 |
| 3 am |
| 1.4 |
| 4 am |
| 1.4 |
| 5 am |
| 1.5 |
| 6 am |
| 1.4 |
| 7 am |
| 1.4 |
| 8 am |
| 1.4 |
| 9 am |
| 1.4 |
| 10 am |
| 1.4 |
| 11 am |
| 1.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 1 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.5 |
Gilchrist
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:06 AM CDT 1.58 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:12 AM CDT Sunrise
Wed -- 12:48 PM CDT Moonset
Wed -- 06:55 PM CDT 0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:00 PM CDT Sunset
Wed -- 10:53 PM CDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:06 AM CDT 1.58 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:12 AM CDT Sunrise
Wed -- 12:48 PM CDT Moonset
Wed -- 06:55 PM CDT 0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:00 PM CDT Sunset
Wed -- 10:53 PM CDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Gilchrist, East Bay, Texas, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.4 |
| 1 am |
| 1.5 |
| 2 am |
| 1.6 |
| 3 am |
| 1.6 |
| 4 am |
| 1.6 |
| 5 am |
| 1.5 |
| 6 am |
| 1.5 |
| 7 am |
| 1.5 |
| 8 am |
| 1.5 |
| 9 am |
| 1.5 |
| 10 am |
| 1.4 |
| 11 am |
| 1.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.8 |
Houston/Galveston, TX,
Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE