Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oak Island, TX

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Quiet weather will prevail through the weekend with a surface high becoming stationed to the east of SE Texas. This will continue the onshore flow pattern. An upper-level ridge will move overhead; however, it does not appear to be as amplified as what previous ridges have been. Late on Sunday a shortwave trough will move through and bring the potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms. Similar to the ridge this trough is not very amplified and will likely not amount to much on its own; however, it will set the stage for unsettled weather going into the work week.

Multiple low-amplitude shortwave troughs will move through the area during the week. Tuesday in particular features a medium chance of measurable rainfall across most of the area. This is due in part to a weak front that is expected to pass through the region and trigger convection as it does so. Ensembles continue to show PW values in the 90th percentile for Tuesday...will need to monitor over the next few days to see how this forecast evolves as far as the potential for a heavy rain event over the Piney Woods region.

Otherwise, for the week expect seasonable temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Afternoon cloud cover and several opportunities for scattered showers and thunderstorms may make temperatures locally cooler, but overall expect it to remain typical to spring/summer.

Adams

AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1134 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the remainder of the day (once we get rid of any lingering MVFR ceilings) and through the first part of the nighttime hours. Still a low chance for isolated showers to develop this afternoon along the seabreeze, but confidence on placement of these (if they even develop) is low so there is no mention of it in the TAFs. Additionally, there is a low chance of a decaying line of storms moving near the northern sites overnight, but the majority of model guidance dissipates the convection before it makes it to CLL. MVFR ceilings build in again overnight into Friday morning. As far as winds go, southeast winds around 7-10 kt will prevail through the day then become light/variable overnight. On Friday, expecting another round of southeast winds around 8-12 kt.

Batiste

MARINE
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Generally moderate onshore winds and seas of 4 to 6 feet are expected during the next few days. Caution flags will prevail through at least early Tuesday. Winds may reach 20 knots at times and seas may briefly rise to 7 feet over the offshore waters Monday into Tuesday and may required an Advisory. Winds relax Tuesday and become easterly late Tuesday night into Wednesday as a weak cold front moves into SE TX and stalls. Onshore winds return late Wednesday as the front moves northeastward as a warm front. Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds are expected to persist into the upcoming weekend. Persistent onshore winds may lead to strong rip currents along the Gulf facing beaches throughout the week and weekend.

Cotto - 24

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 96 73 94 74 / 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 95 75 93 76 / 20 0 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 87 80 87 81 / 10 0 10 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.