Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oak Island, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A shortwave trough is currently moving eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR. A mid-level shear axis/area of broadly cyclonic flow extends southward to South Texas with an upper-level jet streak also present. Mid and high level clouds are streaming northward ahead of this feature along with some weak vorticity maxima from convection over the southwest Gulf. HRRR guidance continues to indicate the highest probabilities for convection this afternoon over northern/western portions of the area, mainly the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods. High (2-2.2") PWATs remain in place, resulting in a continued risk for isolated high rainfall rates/street flooding, with a Level 1 out of 4 (marginal) risk of excessive rainfall from WPC. Thankfully this risk appears to be northwest of Houston. Storms in this area may also produce gusty winds with a little more dry air aloft/DCAPE than previous days.
Closer to the coast, showers should be more isolated with some light rain/sprinkles also being possible at times continuing through tonight due to some mid-level moisture/lift.

On Monday the weak shear axis aloft will be weakening as ridging builds westward from the Gulf with rising heights. PWATs begin to drop to around 1.8-1.9". Convection should be more isolated than previous days, but still present, mainly for inland areas.
Temperatures will begin their warming trend, with values in the lower 90s in inland areas and heat indices around 100.

Subtropical ridging will gradually retrograde westward from the Gulf to West Texas through the week, while a deep trough moves through the Northern Plains and the Upper Midwest. The ridge and drier air aloft will limit convective coverage, but still expect that hot and humid conditions and the sea breeze will result in isolated to widely scattered activity at times. Temperatures warm into the lower to mid 90s by the end of the week. HeatRisk will mainly be in the moderate category with a few pockets of major.
Probabilities of reaching advisory criteria (108F) will be low, with NBM dew points likely running a bit high, but heat will especially be a concern for those visiting the area who are not accustomed to the heat.

JDavis

AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 554 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Showers are expected along the coast this evening with coverage generally decreasing overnight. MVFR CIGS are also anticipated to fill in during this overnight period with brief IFR FLs possible early Monday morning. Gusty S/SE winds pick up mid morning with VFR conditions returning by the afternoon. Showers/isolated storms are possible during the afternoon, mainly north of I-10, though coverage and rain chances are currently too low to warrant mention with this TAF cycle. Winds should ease down again Monday evening.

03

MARINE
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Onshore winds will continue for the the next week. Winds currently are around small craft exercise caution criteria, so flags have been issued through tomorrow morning. Additionally, the winds will oscillate in and out of small craft exercise caution criteria during the week. Isolated showers and storms will be possible early this week but chances decrease as the week goes on.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 76 91 74 91 / 0 20 0 10 Houston (IAH) 78 89 76 91 / 20 10 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 83 86 82 87 / 20 10 0 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Monday morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.