Tuesday, July16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Crescent Beach, FL

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Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 8:27PM Tuesday July 16, 2019 5:15 PM EDT (21:15 UTC) Moonrise 7:31PMMoonset 5:14AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Expires:201907170300;;739971 Fzus52 Kjax 161804 Cwfjax Coastal Waters Forecast For Northeast Florida/southeast Georgia National Weather Service Jacksonville Fl 204 Pm Edt Tue Jul 16 2019 Atlantic Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Amz450-452-454-170300- Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 204 Pm Edt Tue Jul 16 2019
Tonight..South southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 204 Pm Edt Tue Jul 16 2019
Synopsis.. High pressure will extend across the florida peninsula with weak troughs lingering across georgia through the weekend. An extended period of prevailing offshore flow is expected, with winds becoming onshore near the coast in the afternoon with the east coast sea breeze.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of jul 16, 2019 at 1200 utc... 63 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 70 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 82 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 97 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crescent Beach, FL
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location: 29.72, -81.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 161903
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
303 pm edt Tue jul 16 2019

Hot with afternoon heat indices near 105 degrees this week...

Near term rest of this afternoon-tonight
High pressure ridge in place has provided plenty of subsidence
with very hot temps into the mid to upper 90s and heat indices
around 105 degrees area-wide. Enough atmospheric moisture around
with precipitable water amounts (pwats) just under 2 inches and
expect scattered showers and storms to slowly break out over
inland areas and along the east coast sea breeze as it pushes
slowly inland. Storm motion still very slow at 10 mph or less
today and expect main impact to be locally heavy rainfall, but as
suggested before some mid level instability with 500mb temps in
the -6c to -8c range will allow for some localized wet microburst
winds of 40-60 mph and a few isolated strong severe storms
expected late this afternoon and early this evening over inland
areas with storm mergers. Convection still on track to come
together over inland NE fl this evening then weaken after sunset
and basically end by midnight with fair skies with a few high
clouds tonight. Lows still mainly in the 70s overnight.

Short term Wednesday-Thursday
Not much change in the weather pattern as high pressure ridge in
place will maybe weaken and drift NW towards ga al region, but
this may be enough to allow for slightly better rainfall chances
in the afternoon early evening as storm coverage increases to
40-70% range as pwats remain close enough to 2 inches to support
better coverage and the subsidence from the ridge may weaken just
ever so much. Still expect above normal temps to continue with
highs in the mid upper 90s and heat indices peaking in the 104-108
degree range both days and will be just shy of heat advisory
criteria. Storm motion will continue to slow at 10 mph or less but
some increase in westerly flow aloft will slow down the movement
of the east coast sea breeze, and while most of the storm activity
will remain over inland areas, some isolated storms will be
possible near the beaches during early day development along the
sea breeze front. Lows remain warm and muggy in the 70s with
convection continuing to fade by sunset and end by midnight each
day.

Long term Friday-Tuesday
Long-range models continue to show a few mixed signals as some
show a weakening frontal boundary with moisture over the SE us
drifting into SE ga, while others push some dry air aloft with
lower pwats from the western atlc into portions of NE fl and
possibly SE ga. So this could lead to a reduction of rainfall
chances back towards near normal levels in the 30-50% range each
afternoon and evening hours. Overall above normal temps will
continue at least into the middle 90s inland with some upper 90s
possible at times depending on rainfall coverage along with lower
90s at the coast, combine this with late july humidity and expect
heat indices to continue to push close to 105 degrees each
afternoon. The usual storm impacts of locally heavy rainfall,
strong gusty winds to 40-60 mph and frequent lightning will
continue.

Aviation
Tempo afternoon and early evening restrictions potential due
scattered inland showers and tstorms, with drier conditions
expected along the coast where east coast sea breeze will set up
within the next couple of hours and move inland. Advertised vcts
at jax with tempo groups due to TS at vqq and gnv 20z-24z.

Convection will fade inland after sunset and was expected to
remain west of coastal terminals. SE winds at the coast will veer
wsw overnight with land breeze development while inland gnv and
vqq winds will become near calm. Potential for shallow ground fog
and low stratus early Wed morning especially near vqq and gnv
where best rainfall potential exists today, but confidence low at
this time so just indicated 6sm br after 07z.

Marine
Bermuda high pressure ridge axis will remain near or just south of
the local waters and this will continue a south to southwest flow
into the weekend at 10-15 knots with local southeast sea breeze at
the coast. Seas will generally be in the 1-3ft range with some 3-4
ft values well offshore closer to the gulf stream.

Rip currents: low risk continues in the mainly southerly flow
along the coast and surf breakers in the 1-2 ft range. Enough
upwelling at the local beaches to continue some sea surface temps
in the upper 70s similar to what's being reported at the st.

Augustine pier (sauf1) at 77f at 2pm.

Climate
Another day with highs in the upper 90s or higher (max temp>=97f)
at jax airport, marks the 20th time so far this year through july
16th, which is tied for 2nd place with 1981, behind only 1998
which had 24 days in the upper 90s or higher through this date.

Normally jax airport would only have had 4 days >= 97f.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 75 98 75 97 10 40 10 40
ssi 79 91 78 92 0 30 10 30
jax 76 96 75 96 10 60 10 40
sgj 76 92 75 92 10 30 0 40
gnv 74 95 74 94 30 70 20 60
ocf 74 94 74 94 30 60 20 50

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... None.

Hess peterson corless nelson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 4 mi90 min SE 6 89°F 1021 hPa89°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 10 mi75 min SSE 9.9 G 11 82°F 81°F1019.4 hPa (-1.4)82°F
RCYF1 17 mi45 min 88°F
41117 21 mi45 min 81°F1 ft
LTJF1 47 mi45 min 90°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 48 mi45 min ESE 8.9 G 12 89°F 85°F1019.1 hPa
BLIF1 49 mi45 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 92°F 1019.7 hPa74°F
DMSF1 49 mi45 min 87°F

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Northeast Florida Regional Airport, FL18 mi19 minSSE 69.00 miThunderstorm91°F75°F61%1019 hPa

Wind History from SGJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE5SE6SW4SW4SW3SW5W5W5SW3SW3CalmSW3SW4SW6W5W6W6633E9SE12S6
1 day agoSE7SE6SE4CalmCalmSW3SW3SW4SW4SW5SW5W4W4W4W5W865NW6NE6NE8E8E7E4
2 days agoSE9S8SE6S4S7S4S3SW3S4SW5SW5SW3SW4SW4W3W46SW7Calm6CalmSE7NW14S4

Tide / Current Tables for St. Augustine Beach, Florida (2)
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St. Augustine Beach
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Tue -- 02:38 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:27 AM EDT     4.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:33 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:39 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:03 PM EDT     5.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.61.40.60.51.12.13.24.14.64.64.13.22.11.10.50.41.12.13.34.45.25.55.34.5

Tide / Current Tables for St. Augustine Beach, Florida
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St. Augustine Beach
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Tue -- 02:32 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:30 AM EDT     4.02 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:21 PM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:39 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:52 PM EDT     5.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.80.70.10.10.61.42.43.33.93.93.32.41.30.4-0.1-00.71.72.94.14.95.24.83.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.