Friday, November27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Crescent Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 5:27PM Friday November 27, 2020 5:19 PM EST (22:19 UTC) Moonrise 4:00PMMoonset 4:25AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Expires:202011281045;;492437 Fzus52 Kjax 272102 Cwfjax Coastal Waters Forecast For Northeast Florida/southeast Georgia National Weather Service Jacksonville Fl 402 Pm Est Fri Nov 27 2020 Atlantic Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Amz450-452-454-281045- Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 402 Pm Est Fri Nov 27 2020
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Smooth on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Monday night..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 402 Pm Est Fri Nov 27 2020
Synopsis..Light winds and low seas will continue through Saturday as chances for showers and isolated t-storms increase. The focus for showers and storms will be along a slow moving east- west oriented front across southern georgia. The stationary front will drift southward into northeast fl on Saturday before quickly lifting back to the north on Sunday as a warm front. On Monday a potent cold front associated with a strong low pressure will bring breezy offshore winds, elevating seas to near advisory levels through through at least Tuesday. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of nov 26, 2020 at 1200 utc... 42 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 46 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 56 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 85 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crescent Beach, FL
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location: 29.72, -81.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 272159 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 459 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT .

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

Scattered low-top showers have broken out this afternoon across southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley as a quasi-stationary front slowly advances southward across southern GA. Meager instability and a strong mid-level inversion will effectively limit any chance for thunderstorms through the rest of the afternoon and evening. The front will continue to drift south tonight as high pressure over central Florida breaks down amd builds into the Ohio River Valley.

After a brief break in shower activity this evening, another round is expected overnight across southeastern GA. An upper trough axis will pivot across the Mid Atlantic states and overtop the stationary front tonight, providing sufficient lift through early Saturday. Isolated areas of inland southeast Georgia could receive up to an 1" of rain by sunrise on Saturday.

In addition to the rain overnight, patchy fog will likely develop along the nearly stalled frontal zone but away from the shower activity. Best chances for fog development will be inland northeast Florida west of the I-95 corridor. Locally dense fog will be possible in area through Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night].

The quasi-stationary front will make more southward progress on Saturday as upper trough axis pivots into the western Atlantic and surface high pressure builds to the northwest. Scant instability and considerable cloudiness on Saturday should limit potential for widespread shower activity along the frontal zone. An upper cutoff low over west texas will spawn a surface cyclone in the northwestern GOMEX Sunday. This will lift the quasi-stationary frontal zone northward as a warm front, warm-sectoring the area. Mass response from deepening surface low to the west will increase bulk and low- level shear parameters, however very weak instability will be a limiting factor. If enough instability is generated and convection can initiate successfully, strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening ahead of the cold front. Run-to-run model consistency has fallen of a bit regarding the timing of the attendant cold front which now looks to pass through Monday morning/afternoon rater than late Sunday/early Monday. Temps will remain above average through the weekend.

LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday].

Potent cold front will track eastward across the region on Monday, bringing drier air, breezy conditions, and significant drop in temperatures through early next week.

As the front passes through Monday a squall line of showers and t- storms will precede it. Temperatures will drop substantially from Monday to Tuesday with highs on Tuesday forecast to stay in the 50s. Lows on Tuesday morning will dip into the mid 30s across southeast Georgia and Suwanee Valley while the upper 30s/low 40s are likely across along the coast and north-central Florida. As the post-frontal northerly breezes lighten morning lows will drop further Wednesday morning with readings at or below freezing inland and to the upper 30s along the coast. Temps will gradually rebound through the end of the week as surface high shifts offshore and another low pressure system and reinforcing cold front develops to our west. Rain chances will increase with the approach of the late week cold front.

AVIATION. [Through 18Z Saturday]

Prevailing VFR conditions this afternoon with a chance of MVFR ceilings near SSI, VQQ and possibly GNV with a few passing showers this afternoon, but probability too low to include in TAFs at this time. The sea breeze was developing along the coast and winds will become ESE at SSI, CRG and SGJ within the next 1-2 hrs. A weak surface front will settle southward across the area tonight and meander through Sat midday. This boundary will bring low stratus to the area again tonight with low ceilings persisting through midday Sat as light rain and showers develop along and ahead of the front. Trended all terminals down to IFR to LIFR after 06z tonight, with a slow ceiling increase through daybreak Sat with VCSH and SHRA through midday under light west winds.

MARINE.

Light winds and low seas will continue through Saturday as chances for showers and isolated t-storms increase. The focus for showers and storms will be along a slow moving east-west oriented front across southern Georgia. The stationary front will drift southward into northeast FL on Saturday before quickly lifting back to the north on Sunday as a warm front. On Monday a potent cold front associated with a strong low pressure will bring breezy offshore winds, elevating seas to near Advisory levels through through at least Tuesday.

Rip Currents: Low Risk at all area beaches.



HYDROLOGY.

Rainfall is expected through the weekend ahead of a developing low pressure system. However, rainfall will be short-lived and is not expected to result in any substantial hydrologic concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

AMG 59 68 56 69 56 / 50 60 30 60 70 SSI 62 69 61 72 62 / 50 70 20 50 50 JAX 62 72 61 74 62 / 50 60 30 40 40 SGJ 64 76 63 77 65 / 20 50 30 20 30 GNV 62 75 61 77 62 / 20 50 20 20 50 OCF 62 79 63 79 65 / 10 40 10 10 40

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 4 mi94 min ESE 4.1 76°F 1018 hPa64°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 10 mi79 min ENE 5.1 G 6 72°F 72°F1018 hPa (-0.7)68°F
41117 21 mi23 min 73°F2 ft
LTJF1 47 mi49 min 73°F 68°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 48 mi49 min E 7 G 8.9 71°F 71°F1018.1 hPa
BLIF1 49 mi49 min E 6 G 8 74°F 1018.7 hPa74°F
DMSF1 49 mi49 min 70°F

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Northeast Florida Regional Airport, FL18 mi23 minSE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F64°F76%1017.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSGJ

Wind History from SGJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S3--S7S4SW3CalmSW4SW5SW4SW5W5W4W4W4CalmW5W3E6E6E6E6E5SE3
1 day agoS11S11S7S3S3S5S6S5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S7SW7SW64SW6W7SW5SE7SE6
2 days agoN10N7SE6SE4CalmSE7SE9SE12
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G20
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Tide / Current Tables for St. Augustine Beach, Florida (2)
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St. Augustine Beach
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Fri -- 04:26 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:50 AM EST     4.78 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:15 PM EST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:08 PM EST     4.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.81.72.93.94.64.84.53.72.81.80.90.50.71.32.33.344.44.23.52.61.60.7

Tide / Current Tables for St. Augustine Beach, Florida
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St. Augustine Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:26 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:53 AM EST     5.07 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:09 PM EST     0.87 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:11 PM EST     4.44 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.32.23.24.14.85.14.73.92.921.20.911.62.43.34.14.44.33.62.61.70.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.