Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cinco Ranch, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

The anticipated cold front is currently moving southwards through the Central Plains, and it will be moving through SE Texas through the day on Saturday. Before this front pushes through, the mild and humid conditions will persist with breezy southerly winds.
Isolated streamer showers will be possible as early as this morning as moisture increases ahead of the approaching front, then we can expect increased chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight ahead of, along, and behind the frontal passage. FROPA is looking to occur in the Piney Woods/Brazos Valley between 9-11am, the I-10 Corridor between 1-4pm, and then off the coast between 5-7pm. Coverage of the showers and storms is expected to be isolated to scattered across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods region (although an isolated strong storm along the front cannot be ruled out), but then increase to scattered to widespread down to the coast as the front pushes through. High PWATs (near 1.8-2.0") will allow for locally heavy rainfall to occur with any thunderstorms that develop. Overall, most areas will see up to 0.5-1.0" of rainfall, but locally higher totals are expected. The previous two runs of the HRRR and REFS showed some isolated areas with rain totals of 3-5" from the thunderstorms that develop ahead of the front east of I-45 along the I-10 Corridor. The area with the highest totals will largely be dependent on where the isolated thunderstorms develop, so the area to watch may change as we get closer to FROPA. These heavy downpours may result in instances of minor flooding in urban, low-lying and poor drainage areas. WPC has placed portions of southeast Texas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall.

While the surface front will exit the coast Saturday evening, there will be lingering moisture behind the front that will persist until a reinforcing front of drier conditions moves in overnight into Sunday morning. So, expect scattered showers to persist through the night, especially along the coast. The passage of the cold front will also usher in breezy northerly winds (gusts to 20-25mph in land, up to 30mph at the coast) Saturday night into Sunday afternoon.

Cooler weather is on tap Saturday night through Monday with afternoon high temperatures only getting into the low 70s and overnight lows down into the 50s (maybe even upper 40s for portions of the Piney Woods). A gradual warming trend is expected through the remainder of the week with highs in the mid 70s by Tuesday, near 80 on Wednesday, and then mid-80s to end the work week.

After the cold front moves through Saturday night, the next chance of rain arrives Monday night into Tuesday as an upper-level low moves through the region. PWATs will rise to around 1.5-1.7" on Tuesday, so cannot out rule some isolated downpours.

Fowler

AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 708 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Southerly winds of 8-12kt will continue through Saturday morning/early afternoon with occasionally wind gusts to around 20kt. VFR conditions will continue through this evening with overcast skies around 3500-6000ft, but like the last few nights MVFR conditions will develop between 5-7z as the clouds lower to 1500-2500ft. These CIGs will generally prevail through Saturday night, though there may be a brief period of VFR conditions during Saturday afternoon.

A cold front will be pushing through the region Saturday afternoon/evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of and along the front. Will start to see coastal showers and storms develop as early as the early afternoon, then increase in coverage through the evening as the front moves through the region. Winds will be gusty and variable near any thunderstorms that develop. FROPA is expected to occur at CLL between 15-18z, at IAH between 19-21z, and off the coast around 00z. Gusty northerly winds will develop Saturday night into Sunday following the front's passage. Lingering moisture behind the cold front will allow for showers to persist into Saturday night across much of the region until they push off the coast Sunday morning.

Fowler

MARINE
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

While light to moderate onshore flow will continue through Saturday afternoon, a drastic change in conditions is expected Saturday night into Sunday following the passage of a cold front.
This front is expected to push through the coastal waters Saturday evening into Saturday night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop Saturday afternoon/evening ahead of the front with showers lingering through early Sunday morning due to lingering moisture behind the front. Isolated downpours and gusty winds will be possible with any thunderstorms that develop.

Strong north to northeasterly winds are expected to develop behind the passage of the cold front. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Bays Saturday evening into early Sunday afternoon due to expected wind speeds of 20-30kt with frequent gusts to gale (around 35kt) during the late night/early morning hours. The highest wind gusts will likely occur near the Bay entrances. A Gale Watch has been issued for the same timeframe for the coastal waters where winds of 25-30kt with frequent gusts to 35-40kt possible. Very rough bay waters and seas of 5-8ft in the nearshore waters and 7-10ft in the offshore waters are expected. While the Gale Watch ends early Sunday afternoon, there will be elevated winds and seas through late Sunday. Winds veer through Monday with onshore flow expected by Monday night.

Beach Forecast: There is a high risk of strong rip currents along Gulf-facing beaches through Saturday. There will also be increased wave run-up and elevated tides through Saturday (high tides running around 3-3.3ft above MLLW). Elevated tides are expected to return early next week as the onshore flow returns.

Fowler

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 66 75 52 73 / 10 50 70 0 Houston (IAH) 70 82 55 72 / 10 70 90 10 Galveston (GLS) 73 79 61 72 / 20 40 80 20

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 1 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ330-335.

Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for GMZ350-355-370-375.