Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Steinhatchee, FL

SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 100 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

The main concern over the next 24 hours is the potential for fog again tonight, as well as a low chance of light showers late tonight into Wednesday. A favorable environment for fog is expected to persist for tonight with warm, moist air flowing over the cooler waters of the NE Gulf. This pattern typically causes fog to start along the coastline and push inland throughout the overnight period, persisting into the mid to late morning.
Guidance is a mixed bag on fog potential, but persistence from last night tips the scale in favor of at least some fog occurring again tonight across the region. Given the uncertainty, we'll defer any dense fog issuance to later shifts.

A weak cold front will also slide southward on Wednesday, bringing a low chance of showers to the region. Overnight lows tonight are expected to range from the upper 40s to upper 50s across the region with daytime highs on Wednesday mostly in the 70s.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 100 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Mainly dry weather will continue through the remainder of the week.
For this weekend, models are honing in on the next meaningful frontal system to approach the area on Sunday. There remains fairly consistent run to run consistency showing a low level jet of 40-50 knots, so we'll have to see if any meaningful instability manages to push inland to provide us with a high shear, low CAPE severe weather scenario. The 13z NBM currently has a medium chance (30-50%) of CAPE > 500 j/kg across the western half of the area on Sunday. In addition, ensemble probabilities for 850 mb winds > 45 knots are 30- 40%. Stay tuned over the few days for updates.
Conceptually, if any severe weather occurs, then it's more likely to occur across the western half of the area compared to the eastern half given the cooler shelf waters of Apalachee Bay from the recent cold air outbreaks. The rainfall with this system is badly needed with somewhere between 1 and 3 inches currently expected for most locations.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Guidance is less bullish on fog overnight tonight, likely due to approach of mid-level disturbance along with a few showers by morning. Have included those showers in the forecasts with less pessimistic vsby, especially at northern terminals.

MARINE
Issued at 100 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Low winds and seas will continue over the northeastern Gulf this week. Some sea fog is possible near the coast over the next couple of days, most likely during the overnight and morning hours. Winds and seas will increase this weekend ahead of a strong cold front with small craft advisory conditions likely.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 100 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

A weak frontal boundary will bring a low chance of light showers (10- 30 percent) to the area on Wednesday. A drier airmass temporarily arrives Thursday before moisture increases again ahead of the next significant cold front this weekend.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 100 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

For the upcoming system this weekend, 1-3 inches of rain is forecast at this time. This would be beneficial rainfall if it occurs given the ongoing drought. Currently, there are no flooding concerns.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 56 77 53 72 / 0 10 10 0 Panama City 58 72 55 71 / 10 20 10 0 Dothan 59 77 50 69 / 20 30 10 0 Albany 58 77 46 69 / 40 30 10 0 Valdosta 54 77 50 71 / 10 20 20 0 Cross City 48 73 53 75 / 0 10 10 10 Apalachicola 56 68 55 66 / 0 20 10 10

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.