Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Steinhatchee, FL

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Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 8:09PM Sunday August 25, 2019 12:07 PM EDT (16:07 UTC) Moonrise 12:55AMMoonset 3:09PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ765 Expires:201908252030;;187375 Fzus52 Ktae 251424 Cwftae Coastal Waters Forecast For Florida Big Bend And Eastern Panhandle National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl 1024 Am Edt Sun Aug 25 2019 Gulf Coastal Waters From The Mouth Of The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-252030- Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1024 Am Edt Sun Aug 25 2019 /924 Am Cdt Sun Aug 25 2019/
Rest of today..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light to moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light to moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light to moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Wednesday night..North winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light to moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 1024 Am Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
Synopsis.. Southwesterly winds will become westerly by Tuesday. Winds will become northerly late in the week as a cool front moves through. Winds will be 15 knots or less this week. A wet pattern will be in place this week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Steinhatchee, FL
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location: 29.73, -83.53     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 251427
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
1027 am edt Sun aug 25 2019

Update
Another active day is expected across the CWA this afternoon and
into tonight. Hi-res models continue to show above normal activity
across the area and thus have continued with the 50-70% pops for
this afternoon. Storms over the land areas should begin in the
12-2pm range.

Prev discussion [333 am edt]
Near term [through today]
Light showers in SE al continue to dissipate and it should be dry by
4am et. With the clouds starting to clear out, low stratus clouds
are already forming in parts of SW ga, including in albany. Parts of
walton bay county are also starting to see some low clouds. These
will lift shortly after sunrise.

Synoptically, an upper trough will dig into the midwest today with a
weak upper ridge over the local area. Wpc shows a stationary front
over SE al SW ga counties remaining today but I can't really find
much evidence of a boundary. It looks more like the sea breeze will
start to kick in after about 17 18z and move northward, with hires
guidance in very good agreement. A weak shortwave will move
southwest to northeast along the ridge, aiding in moving the line of
storms north. Would expect some very efficient lightning producers
once again but with less dry air in the mid levels, storms shouldn't
be as strong, although they will be deep. Pw values remain over 2
inches so heavy rain is likely but the storms should have some
movement once winds shift from easterly to southerly behind the sea
breeze.

Highs are all over the place model wise and it seems like it all
depends on when the line of storms moves through. For tlh as an
example, the high is forecast anywhere from 85 to 95. Have generally
trended towards the middle with highs in the mid 80s to around 90
since we should get the storms late enough to have sufficient
heating before.

Short term [tonight through Tuesday]
In the upper levels a trough will be over the southeast. At the
surface a weak low near mississippi will move through the southeast.

Not expecting a frontal passage but winds will become more westerly
on Tuesday. A wet pattern will be in place due to the aforementioned
trough and surface feature. Pops will be 60 to 80 percent in most
locations. Heavy downpours are likely with the stronger
thunderstorms. Pwat values will be around 2 inches or higher. Highs
will be in the upper 80s and near 90. Lows will be in the lower 70s.

Long term [Tuesday night through Sunday]
In the upper levels the trough over the southeast will retreat by
late this week. At the surface a cool front will move through on
Wednesday. Northerly low level winds will become easterly by Friday.

The best chance for thunderstorms and rain will be on Wednesday with
widespread pops of 50 to 65 percent. Highs will be in the lower 90s.

Lows will be in the lower 70s.

Aviation
[through 06z Monday]
600ft CIGS have settled into aby already and these lower CIGS are
starting to spread across the area as the mid level clouds clear
out. Highest chances are still at dhn, aby and vld but there are
some 2500ft CIGS around ecp and they could go back down at any time.

Went ahead and included tsra at all terminals given our pops of 60-
70% except aby where confidence is lower and included a prob30.

Timing of these storms may be off an hour or two earlier or later
than forecast.

Marine
Southwesterly winds will become westerly by Tuesday. Winds will
become northerly late in the week as a cool front moves through.

Winds will be 15 knots or less this week. A wet pattern will be in
place this week.

Fire weather
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible once again today as a
sea breeze moves south to north late this morning into the early
afternoon. Winds will be easterly ahead of the line, shifting to
southerly behind it. Light easterly winds return after sunset.

Patchy fog is possible this morning but otherwise, no fire weather
concerns.

Hydrology
The flood warning for the steinhatchee river has been cancelled.

Local rivers are mostly steady or falling slowly. Rainfall
accumulations from scattered thunderstorms over the next week is
expected to be around 2-3", with locally higher values. Widespread
flooding is not anticipated, but isolated heavy rainfall could lead
to local flooding.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 90 74 90 74 91 60 40 50 30 60
panama city 89 76 86 76 87 50 40 50 50 50
dothan 88 72 85 72 88 60 60 70 40 70
albany 86 74 88 74 88 50 50 70 50 70
valdosta 88 72 88 72 89 60 50 60 40 70
cross city 91 74 90 75 89 50 40 50 40 50
apalachicola 87 77 87 76 87 50 40 40 30 50

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Update... Fieux
near term... Ln
short term... Mcd
long term... Mcd
aviation... Ln
marine... Mcd
fire weather... Ln
hydrology... Mcd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 7 mi67 min E 8 G 9.9 83°F 1016.3 hPa (+1.2)76°F
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 46 mi133 min ENE 4.1 G 9.9 81°F 50°F1015.2 hPa
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 49 mi67 min ENE 8 G 8.9 84°F 1016 hPa (+1.2)75°F

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Perry-Foley, Perry-Foley Airport, FL24 mi92 minENE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F78°F84%1016.6 hPa
Cross City Airport, FL24 mi92 minE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F76°F72%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCTY

Wind History from CTY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6NE9NE8N8SE3E7E5CalmCalmE4Calm--NE4----------NE3NE4NE5E6E6NE5
1 day agoN5E4E5NE5E3E4CalmNW4NW4NW4----Calm--CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmE3N4NE7
2 days agoCalmE5E4E5W7SW6SW5SW4W5Calm------CalmE3--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4E4SE3

Tide / Current Tables for Fishermans Rest, Florida
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Fishermans Rest
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:24 AM EDT     1.77 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:59 AM EDT     3.13 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:19 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:57 PM EDT     2.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.21.91.81.822.42.833.132.82.421.510.70.50.50.81.31.92.42.7

Tide / Current Tables for Steinhatchee River ent., Deadman Bay, Florida
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Steinhatchee River ent.
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:23 AM EDT     1.87 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:58 AM EDT     3.13 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:18 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:56 PM EDT     2.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.321.91.92.12.52.833.132.82.421.510.70.50.60.81.31.92.42.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.