Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Anahuac, TX

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Anahuac, TX

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Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 081729 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

A rather complex atmospheric setup has been bestowed upon southeast Texas today. Mid/upper subtropical ridge will build further north over Texas. However, there will only be a modest increase in mid/upper level pressure heights. In addition, NW flow aloft will be increasing as the aforementioned increased ridging tightens the mid/upper level pressure gradient resulting in about 20-30 knots of 0-6KM bulk shear. Instability will also be plentiful in part thanks to the heat and humidity that will greet you when you step outside today. Widespread afternoon highs in the low-90s with dew points around 70F are expected. This will translate to heat index values in the upper-90s for many locations. Going back to the instability, HRRR MUCAPE ensemble means are showing widespread values of 2000- 2500 J/kg with forecast soundings showing potential for CAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. We also will have to contend with the prospect of low-level mesoscale boundaries thanks to the sea breeze as well as potential outflow boundaries from overnight MCS's in central and southern Texas. All these aforementioned factors are leading to an increasing chance of thunderstorms, especially this afternoon. PoPs for most of the CWA have been increased to the 40-50 percent range.
Given the high instability and sufficient shear, a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. The Storm Prediction Center currently has most of our region in a Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms. It is not out of the question that they could upgrade the risk to a 2 out of 5 for portions of the CWA. The primary concern will be damaging winds gusts. Worth mentioning that this complex setup results in some heightened uncertainty. This can be seen via the wide ranging solutions of the current CAMs. Most of the CAMs are indicating convective development over our CWA. It's the exact location of these thunderstorms that one will see the most disagreement in the convection model guidance.

Ridging will build even more on Friday resulting in lower PoPs and higher temps. Still, some weak shortwave action embedded in the synoptic flow could spark off a few isolated thunderstorms. But the bigger story will be the temperatures. Friday's highs are expected to average in the mid-90s. Couldn't rule out a few locations reaching the upper-90s. Upper-80s to low-90s are expected near the beaches. Once the humidity is factored into the equation, many of you will have heat index values reaching the low-100s. Tis the season to drink plenty of water! If you do not need to be outside, stay indoors during the hottest hours of the day. Remember to LOOK before you LOCK. Also, if you think it is hot outside then so do your pets!

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

I have precisely one (1) day with PoPs that rise into at least the slight chance category, and that is right on the front end on Saturday. Ridging will be coming to command the region, but not before we squeeze one more day with isolated to scattered showers and storms out. With the beefy, subtropical ridge building in from the southwest, it's surely no surprise that the best rain chances will be to the northeast, generally beyond Lake Livingston and towards the Pineywoods, were PoPs peak out at 30-40 percent.
Things dip down to around 20 percent near the I-45 corridor, and dwindle to 5 percent or less pretty quickly once you head southwest of the Colorado River. The last lingering storms should wrap up in the early evening, mainly north of Houston.

Okay, with that first day out of the way, let's focus on the real star of the long term forecast, the heat. Our big ensemble systems remain highly confident in unseasonably hot temps, using 850 mb temperatures as a proxy signal. Both the NAEFS and EPS ensemble mean 850 temps begin to exceed the 90th percentile as early as Saturday afternoon, and just crank up into the new week. 97th percentile temps show up on Sunday, and 99th percentile temps arrive Monday. By mid-week, 850 temps exceeding the 99th percentile are widespread, and the hot spots begin to max out the climo. The Euro ensemble mean goes so far as to suggest record 850 temps area-wide later next week, with the only saving grace being that this occurs overnight Wednesday into Thursday.

Now, this is all very interesting, but other than perhaps reinforcing the high confidence in some hot days ahead, it doesn't reveal a whole lot of new information we weren't looking at the past couple of nights. Where the uncertainty comes in, as it so often does, is how this hot 850 mb temperature translates to surface temperatures, where we're living. And, unfortunately, I don't necessarily have a lot to report there. The EPS Extreme Forecast Index is really suggesting higher confidence in extreme heat well to our west, but remains coy in our area. The EFI for max temps through next Wednesday flit above 0.5 in isolated spots, but there's not really a strong signal here. Ensemble cluster analysis of max temps suggests that there is not a lot of variation from the multi-model mean in the most prominent scenarios. If anything, there may be a little bust potential for things to come in a bit cooler than progged, but the difference here is still small and probably too much of a stretch to do anything but plant some anxiety about my forecast.

All in all, this idea of having unseasonably hot temperatures but with a signal for extreme heat relatively lacking, I'm comfortable mostly running with a blend of the deterministic NBM and the NBM median for temps, to give me a slight hedge towards heat.
Widespread inland highs in the middle to upper 90s are here as early as Sunday, and especially Tuesday through Thursday. As we push into the back half of the week, upper 90s become the norm inland, while highs reaching 100 degrees begin to emerge. Of course, onshore flow helps keep things slightly cooler at the coast, but even there, look for highs around and above 90 degrees.

Taking a look at the NBM distribution, 90 degree highs are basically certain except right on the Gulf the whole period. This is not really a surprise, as this time of year, a 90 degree high is right around average, give or take a degree or two. Stepping it up to triple digits, and we see some more nuance. The probability of reaching 100 degrees starts to sneak in from the west as early as even Saturday - those that have the least chance for rain could see their odds of hitting the century mark up as high as 8-12 percent. The first isolated spots of 50 percent probability show up Monday, mainly around the Brazos Valley in our climatological hot spot west of the Houston metro.

Things get more interesting later in the week, as the probabilities for hitting 100 continue to increase. The absolute numbers seem to top out around 75 percent in the second half of the week, but the area of 50 percent or higher probability grows to cover nearly all of the area from I-10 northward. With a large swath of our forecast area seeing a 50-75 percent chance of reaching 100 degrees at their specific point, I've got to think we are basically certain to see someone, somewhere in the area make the mark later next week. To get otherwise would require a whole lot of coin flips going in one particular way.

AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Starting to see thunderstorms develop between UTS and CLL. The atmosphere will be very unstable this afternoon, so expecting at least SCT TSRA in a couple of hours, some strong and/or severe TSRA are possible, especially near CLL. Will have a TEMPO to TSRA this aft for inland TAF sites. Convection will propagate to the SE and last until early eve.

Wood



MARINE
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Generally light, westerly to southwesterly winds are expected today, shifting to southerly and strengthening to become more moderate to late Friday into the weekend. To go along with that, seas will be pretty flat to begin with and gradually make their way up to a 2 to 4 foot range. Moderate to gusty south winds should prevail in the first half of next week, and look to increase enough that we will have to evaluate the need for caution flags and perhaps even a brief small craft advisory at times next week.

Rain chances dwindle this weekend, with scattered shower and storm coverage today decreasing each day into the weekend. From then on, dry weather prevails deep into next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 92 69 95 73 / 30 20 10 10 Houston (IAH) 92 72 95 72 / 30 20 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 88 77 90 79 / 20 20 10 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for Morgans Point, TX

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Airport Reports

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Wind History from EFD (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Point Barrow, Trinity Bay, Texas

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