Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Berwick, LA

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

At the surface, a stationary boundary is located along the coast.
This stalled boundary produced significant rainfall and thunderstorms yesterday, but dry continental air has made its way into the region. This dry air will lead to pleasant conditions and mostly clear skies, except along the coast. Aloft winds are mainly zonal with weak ridging to our west that will limit active weather in the short-term forecast.

As the boundary remains offshore, we could see some showers and thunderstorms forming along our coastal locations. Otherwise, we are looking at a pleasant day with highs in the upper 80s.

Starting on Friday the front will begin to move northward, which will lead to dew points in the 70s and temperatures remaining in the high 80s to low 90s. During this time, daily driven showers and thunderstorms will be possible but PoPs will remain low, only around 10%.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Quiet weather will give way to a more active pattern as a series of shortwave troughs and fronts will begin to impact the region.
The main concern about these systems will be widespread heavy rain and a flash flooding threat. The flooding threat will begin on Monday and last through the middle of the week.

The synoptic set up for the event is a combination of a surface ridging in the Gulf and a surface low that will track across the southern plains. These two features will work together to create robust moisture transport into southwest Louisiana with ensemble tables showing WV transport jumping into the 90th percentile on Sunday with regional PWATs responding by jumping into the 90th to 99th percentile on Monday and Tuesday. Rainfall will begin on Sunday with the heavy rain threat continuing for the first half of the week. The most active day looks like it will be on Tuesday as the front moves into the region. Similar to the previous front this system will stall along the coast where it will continue to cause widespread rainfall.

While it is still early to nail down rainfall totals when looking at the 72 hours totals for Monday - Wednesday we can see widespread 50 to 60% probabilities for at least 1 inch of rainfall with the reasonable worst case scenario showing a 10% chance for 5 plus inches of rain, during the same timeframe. This event is several days away and we will continue to refine the forecast and keep you informed about possible impacts.

The WPC has placed us under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for flash flooding on Sunday.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Winds will be light and from east for the first half of the day before becoming southernly after sunset. A high cloud deck will keep skies overcast but ceilings will stay VFR.

MARINE
Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Showers and thunderstorms along the coast will be the main concern this morning as they could cause dangerous conditions for Mariners.

ASCAT analysis and observations shows winds below 10 knots across the northern Gulf. Winds will remain light through the weekend, below 10 knots and variable, but will start to increase on Sunday.
Similarly, waves will remain below 3 feet through the weekend before they begin to build in response to the winds on Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 90 69 91 70 / 0 0 10 0 LCH 89 73 88 74 / 10 0 10 0 LFT 86 72 89 73 / 20 10 20 0 BPT 90 74 90 75 / 0 0 10 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.