Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hastings, FL

SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

A pretty persistent pattern will continue to end the weekend on Sunday, with a modest onshore flow persisting chances for showers and perhaps some very isolated thunder, especially for the coasts and eastern of about HWY 301 in northeast FL. Onshore flow and plenty of clouds will keep high temps in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Showers diminish and confine mainly to waters Sunday Night, with a noticeable decrease in cloud cover as well for interior areas north and east. Moisture boundary aloft drops further southward Sunday Night and into Monday and builds a surface ridge further south into northeast FL as well, which is expected to confine rain chances to mainly for southern portions of the area as well as coastal northeast FL into Monday. Instability will be limited once again Monday, and therefore expected primarily scattered showers with very isolated thunder possible. The moisture gradient will also influence the temperature gradient Monday, with more clouds than sun and lower 80s south and partly to mostly sunny and low to mid 80s north into interior southeast GA.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

First half of this period will of course be heavily influenced by potential impacts from Tropical Storm Milton, as the system progresses east/northeast across the eastern Gulf to start the week and approaches/moves across the central or southern FL peninsula some time around mid week. Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system, the passage of low pressure to the south and aforementioned ridging north of the boundary definitely promotes blustery onshore flow winds, resulting in building hazardous marine conditions as well as coastal flooding/tidal flooding potential for the Atlantic Coast and St. Johns River.
With a frontal boundary across the area, this setup will also promote periods of heavy rainfall and flooding potential during the mid week period, with exact totals dependent on exactly where the front settles and where Milton ends up tracking. With already weakened trees and limbs from Helene's impacts, the strengthening NE winds and gusts of at least near 30 mph at times for coastal areas and NE FL could produce additional tree damage. Be sure to stay up to date with the latest forecasts at hurricanes.gov, and maintain tropical readiness.

Milton's departure brings a cooler and drier northerly flow into the region by late in the week, with fall-like conditions (at least for Florida standards) working their way into the area.
Breezy conditions will likely continue through the rest of the long term post Milton however, persisting coastal, marine, and tidal flooding hazards. High temperatures will trend near to below normal mid-week, then falling below normal for late week, especially across inland SE GA and the Suwannee River Valley where driest air will intrude.

MARINE
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Have bumped up the east-northeast winds a bit in the marine forecast into tonight though may be trending a bit lower based on the latest guidance. Model guidance seas compared to observations look on track at this time. Have placed in exercise caution headline for the time being. Additional exercise caution headlines for seas possible on Sunday. Small craft advy may be necessary for offshore waters Monday, with more widespread advisory conditions early Tuesday. Tropical headlines could begin by mid to late Tuesday and continue through Thursday. It is worth noting that forerunner swells from distant hurricane Kirk look to start later tonight and during the day on Sunday with swell initial wave periods of 16-18 seconds. Latest buoys suggest a very faint signal of >16 seconds so far.

Rip Currents: High Risk Today through at least Sunday. The risk will likely remain high throughout the upcoming week.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Rivers: Major river flooding is forecast to impact the Alapaha River in Statenville by Monday. Minor river flooding continues on the Altamaha River basin. The Satilla is forecast to rise into Minor stage at Atkinson early next week. As flood waters travel down the Suwannee River, backwater flooding up the Santa Fe including at Three Rivers Estates is this weekend.

Tidal Flooding: The combination of persistent onshore flow and the approach of the annual high Spring Tides mid-month will continue to elevate local water level departures for tidal locations this weekend and next week. Most locations will rise into Action stage today, then will approach minor tidal flooding for the evening high tides within the St. Johns River basin. A coastal flood advisory remains in effect beginning this evening. Tides will becoming further trapped with increasing water levels this upcoming week, with the greater tidal flooding impacts JAX to Welaka. Stronger onshore flow next week will likely raise tidal flooding levels further, with levels dependent on the northeast flow and the eventual track and intensity of Milton.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 70 79 64 84 / 30 30 0 0 SSI 72 80 73 82 / 60 50 20 10 JAX 73 80 71 83 / 70 70 40 30 SGJ 73 81 72 82 / 70 70 50 50 GNV 72 78 70 81 / 40 60 20 30 OCF 73 81 72 82 / 20 60 30 40

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ033-038-132- 137-325.

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ124-125-133- 138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for GAZ154-166.

AM...None.