Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bell, FL

SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 249 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025

Broad, negatively-tilted troughing extending from the northern Rockies eastward across the northern Plains, the Upper Midwest, and the Great Lakes will flatten and suppress riding aloft from the Gulf southward to the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Fast westerly flow in between these two features will drive a 100-knot jet streak at 250 millibars (around 35,000 feet) across the Tennessee Valley and the Deep South on Wednesday. This jet streak will help propel a cold front across southeast GA on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Troughing aloft will then become reinforced over the Great Lakes states on Wednesday night and Thursday, with the front decelerating as it crosses northeast FL on Wednesday night. This boundary will then slowly crawl across north central FL on Thursday and will sink southward across the FL Peninsula on Thursday night as another potent jet streak (120 knots at 250 millibars) traverses the southern Appalachians and the Carolinas.

Strengthening low level westerly flow should advect low stratus ceilings and possibly some patches of fog eastward from Apalachee Bay across the Suwannee Valley and north central FL early on Wednesday morning, with these lower clouds possibly approaching the I-95 corridor in northeast FL around or just after sunrise.
Meanwhile, a ribbon of deeper moisture pooling along the cold front will approach the Altamaha, Ocmulgee, and Alapaha Rivers shortly after sunrise. A squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms that will be ongoing on Tuesday night ahead of this frontal boundary will weaken as it approaches inland southeast GA early on Wednesday morning, with scattered showers possible early in the morning, mainly for locations north and west of Waycross.
Otherwise, low stratus ceilings for locations along and south of I-10 will dissipate by the mid-morning hours as breezy west-southwesterly winds develop shortly after sunrise, with another hot and humid day unfolding across our region as the front begins to slow its southward progress. Highs will soar to the 90-95 degree range as breaks in the cumulus field develop during the mid to late afternoon hours, with breezy offshore winds throughout the day preventing the development of the Atlantic sea breeze. Highs at coastal locations will likely reach the mid 90s, with heat index values topping out around 100 degrees at most locations.

Widely scattered thunderstorms should begin to develop across southeast GA during the late morning and early afternoon hours as ML CAPE values rise to the 1,500 - 2,000 j/kg range. Bulk westerly shear values will only increase to the 30-40 knot range, likely keeping the threat for severe thunderstorms isolated for locations along and north of the I-10 corridor, with downburst wind gusts of 40-60 mph and occasional lightning strikes being the primary threats. The front will continue to lose its forward momentum on Wednesday night, with scattered showers and thunderstorms quickly decreasing in coverage early in the evening as activity crosses the I-10 corridor. Low stratus ceilings may advect off the eastern Gulf and progress eastward across north central FL overnight just ahead of the frontal boundary, while a cooler and drier air mass advects into southeast GA overnight on the heels of a light northwesterly breeze. Lows will fall to the low and mid 60s across inland southeast GA, with upper 60s for inland locations along the I-10 corridor, while lower 70s prevail elsewhere along and south of the frontal boundary.

Widely scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may impact north central FL on Thursday as the front limps through the region. A much drier air mass will otherwise overspread our area on the heels of a northwesterly breeze during the morning hours that will shift to westerly by afternoon. Dewpoints will fall to the 50s at inland locations during the afternoon hours. Our local pressure gradient will continue to loosen throughout the day, allowing for the Atlantic sea breeze boundary to develop during the afternoon hours at coastal locations. Some cirrus cloud cover may persist across our area, but the dry air mass and filtered sunshine will still allow highs to climb to the upper 80s and lower 90s, with the afternoon sea breeze cooling coastal locations back through the low and mid 80s during the mid to late afternoon hours.

Cooler and drier air will filter across the rest of our region on Thursday night as skies clear and a light west-northwesterly breeze resumes. Lows will fall to the 60-65 range inland, ranging to the upper 60s at coastal locations.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 249 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025

Troughing aloft will dig from the Great Lakes to New England on Friday and Saturday, creating a dry northwesterly flow pattern across our area. Surface high pressure centered over the Mississippi Valley on Friday morning will progress southeastward as the Holiday weekend commences, with this feature emerging off the Carolina coast by Saturday evening. Full sunshine and a dry air mass will continue to boost highs to the 90-95 degree range for inland locations along and south of I-10, with mid to upper 80s prevailing elsewhere. Dewpoints crashing through the 50s and lower 60s inland will keep heat index values in check, and radiational cooling at night may allow for some upper 50s across inland southeast GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley, with 60s forecast elsewhere on Friday night. Lows on Saturday night may remain in the low and mid 60s inland as heights aloft begin to climb, with a light onshore breeze developing at coastal locations keeping lows closer to 70.

Troughing over New England will begin to lift northward late in the Holiday weekend, with ridging aloft becoming re-established over the Gulf that will nose northeastward towards our region on Sunday night and Monday. Atlantic surface ridging will build westward towards the FL Peninsula on Sunday, with developing southwesterly flow beginning to advect some moisture into our area. Dewpoints will still crash through the 60s on Sunday afternoon inland, and the air mass will likely still be too subsident for any convective activity along inland moving sea breeze boundaries. Enough moisture should be in place by Memorial Day afternoon for at least isolated convective development along mesoscale boundaries. Highs on Sunday and Monday will soar to the low and mid 90s inland, with the afternoon sea breeze keeping coastal highs generally in the upper 80s. Heat index values may approach 100 on Monday afternoon as dewpoints begin to climb well in advance of a frontal boundary that will be entering the southeastern states.
Thunderstorm coverage should increase by next Tuesday as this front moves into our region, with hot and humid weather expected area-wide.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025

Patchy fog is possible this morning, which may cause restrictions. The greatest chance for restrictions in fog this morning will be at KGNV. Otherwise, prevailing VFR conditions at most area TAF sites this period.

MARINE
Issued at 249 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025

High pressure will move away to the south southeast through Tonight.
A cold front will move southeast across area Wednesday afternoon and evening with a few strong storms possible. A secondary front will move southeast through region Thursday night. High pressure will build to the east over the weekend.

Rip Currents: Moderate Today, Low Wednesday

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 249 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025

Light westerly transport winds early this morning will shift to southwesterly, with breezy speeds this afternoon combining with elevated mixing heights to create high to very high daytime dispersion values inland, with good values forecast at coastal locations, where surface winds will shift to southeasterly this afternoon behind the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary. Breezy westerly surface and transport winds will prevail on Wednesday, again creating high to very high daytime dispersion values that will extend to coastal locations, as breezy offshore winds prevent the development of the Atlantic sea breeze. A much drier air mass will then plunge into our area on Thursday, dropping minimum humidity values to near critical thresholds at inland locations during the afternoon hours.
Northwesterly surface and transport winds on Thursday morning will shift to westerly during the afternoon hours, with surface speeds forecast to remain below Red Flag criteria. Elevated mixing heights will create good daytime dispersion values at inland locations, with pockets of high values possible on Thursday afternoon across portions of inland southeast GA.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 93 70 90 64 / 0 10 40 0 SSI 91 74 91 70 / 10 0 30 10 JAX 96 71 96 67 / 10 0 30 10 SGJ 94 71 95 71 / 10 0 20 10 GNV 95 69 93 69 / 0 0 20 10 OCF 94 70 92 71 / 0 0 10 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.