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Marine Weather and Tides Bell, FL Version 3.4

NOTICE 8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it. 8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue. 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 7:20AM

Sunset 7:18PM

Tuesday September 29, 2020 12:48 AM EDT (04:48 UTC)

Moonrise 5:35PM

Moonset 4:17AM

Illumination 90%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bell, FL

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Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 290157 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 957 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020

. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY . . STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO OUR AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY .

UPDATE.

Late evening surface analysis depicts a strong cold front extending from the eastern Great Lakes region southward through the Ohio, Tennessee and lower Mississippi River Valleys. Aloft . deep troughing extends from the western Great Lakes to the southern Plains, with an embedded potent shortwave trough diving south-southeastward from the Upper Midwest towards the Mid- Mississippi Valley. This weather pattern was resulting in gradually deepening west-southwesterly flow aloft over our region, with lighter south-southeast flow in the low levels per the evening sounding at Jacksonville. Light showers were migrating quickly east-northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico across locations south of I-10 this evening, with mostly mid and high altitude cloud cover gradually thinning to the west of our region as convection moves further offshore from the northeast FL coast. Temperatures and dewpoints remain in the 70s area-wide as of 02Z.

We expect light showers to occasionally stream across north central and portions of northeast FL through around midnight, with thinning mid and high altitude cloud cover overnight leading to low stratus development during the predawn and early morning hours. Convection igniting over the northeast Gulf waters towards sunrise could send a few showers into western portions of the Suwannee Valley towards dawn, but most locations will remain dry from about midnight through the early morning hours on Tuesday. Lows will remain in the low to mid 70s area-wide.

The potent shortwave trough diving south-southeastward from the upper Midwest tonight will pivot eastward through the Ohio Valley on Tuesday afternoon, aiding in the sharpening of a deep trough that will be progressing into the southeastern states. Flow will become south-southwesterly throughout the troposphere ahead of this trough, with bulk speed shear increasing to 35-45 knots locally on Tuesday afternoon. A few waves of convection will traverse our region on Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of the approaching strong cold front, with strong thunderstorms and heavy downpours expected to develop. Stronger activity will be capable of producing wind gusts of 40-50 mph and briefly heavy downpours as activity races east-northeastward. Given that additional downpours fell over most of St. Johns and Flagler Counties again today, we will keep the Flood Watch for these counties going through Tuesday. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are possible on Tuesday afternoon and evening, with locally higher totals possible. A few peaks of filtered sunshine on Tuesday morning and breezy south-southwesterly winds will likely boost highs to the mid and upper 80s along the I-95 corridor, with low to mid 80s elsewhere as convection begins by early afternoon well inland.

MARINE.

A strong cold front will cross our local waters towards sunset on Tuesday. A southerly evening wind surge has brought southerly winds up to near 15 knots, but winds will become southwesterly and will subside after midnight. Showers and a few strong thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the cold front on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Seas of 3-5 feet will prevail offshore during the next several days, with 3-4 foot seas near shore dropping back to 2-3 feet by midweek. Northwesterly winds will surge in the wake of the cold frontal passage on Tuesday night, with Caution level speeds of 15-20 knots expected through Wednesday morning. A dry cold front will then cross our region on Thursday night, followed by northerly winds increasing on Friday night as high pressure builds to the north of our area. High pressure will then wedge down the southeastern seaboard on Saturday, resulting in strengthening northeasterly winds and building seas.

Rip Currents: Low risk expected on Tuesday and Wednesday as offshore winds prevail.

HYDROLOGY.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible across already saturated locations in St. Johns and Flagler Counties on Tuesday, with locally higher totals possible. Urban and low lying areas may experience additional flooding during the afternoon and early evening hours.

PREV DISCUSSION [833 PM EDT].

Near Term. /through Wednesday/ .

Surface high pressure will remain to the east northeast of the region through Tonight, continuing a moist generally southerly flow. At 500mb the region will on the east side of a broad trough. Weak short waves will move northeast through this trough through Tonight. The combination of diurnal heating along with ample moisture and instability from upper energy will provide for continued convective activity Today. The loss of daytime heating will decrease chances Tonight, but passing showers still expected. Potential for strong storms with locally heavy rainfall will continue Today. Continuing the flood watch for St Johns and Flagler, where heavy rains fell yesterday, and again this afternoon.

For Tuesday, a strong cold front will move into SE GA Tuesday morning, then sweep into NE FL Tuesday afternoon, pushing to the southeast of forecast area Tuesday evening. A round of strong to possibly severe storms is expected to lead this frontal passage. Gusty winds along with locally heavy rainfall anticipated with these storms. The core of the upper low will trail the front by about 12 hours, with this energy coming through late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Most moisture will be southeast of the region though, so not expecting much more than a few lingering showers into Wednesday with the upper feature. Clouds will decrease through the day Wednesday as surface high pressure builds from the west. With the upper energy trailing well behind the frontal system, this could limit severe storm potential Tuesday.

A significant change will follow the frontal passage, with dewpoints falling about 20 degrees in the 24 hour period from Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday afternoon. That will lead to a noticeably drier and cooler feeling airmass.

Temperatures will be above normal through Tuesday, then below normal for Wednesday.

Short Term. /Wednesday night through Saturday/ .

High pressure will stretch across the region Wednesday night through Thursday. This is expected to be a dry period with mainly clear skies. A trough of low pressure will move southeast across the area Thursday night, but is expected to be a dry passage, with only a few extra clouds. Strong high pressure will build from the northwest Friday, then to the north Friday night through Saturday. The position of this high will lead to an onshore flow pattern. Most of the area will be dry through Saturday, but a few coastal showers can not be ruled out.

Highs will trend near normal this period, but with the lower dewpoints in place, overnight lows will trend below normal.

Long Term. /Saturday night through Monday/ .

High pressure will be north of the region this period, continuing onshore flow pattern. A good bit of uncertainty does exist in forecast late this weekend into early next week, based on potential tropical moisture that could move north into area. At minimum, expect mainly coastal showers in the onshore flow pattern, but if tropical system develops moisture would increase leading to a greater chance for showers. Given uncertainty at this point, trending this forecast toward coastal showers from onshore flow.

Temperatures will trend near to a little below normal this period.

AVIATION. [Through 00Z Wednesday]

VFR conditions will prevail through at least 06Z. Isolated brief showers or sprinkles will be possible through around 05Z at the northeast FL terminals, with ceilings generally from 4,000 - 7,000 feet prevailing. MVFR conditions will likely develop at VQQ towards 07Z and GNV towards 09Z, with ceilings then expected to quickly lower to IFR and then LIFR by 11Z. MVFR conditions will likely begin at JAX and CRG towards 11Z. MVFR ceilings will likely prevail after 13Z as surface winds become southwesterly and sustained at 5-10 knots. Thunderstorms will move across the regional terminals after 15Z. We added PROB30 groups to each terminal for gusty winds up to 30 knots and IFR visibilities after 16Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

AMG 70 81 55 76 54 / 10 90 50 0 0 SSI 74 84 60 77 60 / 30 90 80 0 0 JAX 72 86 59 78 58 / 40 90 70 0 0 SGJ 73 89 63 78 62 / 40 90 60 0 0 GNV 72 85 60 79 56 / 20 90 60 0 0 OCF 72 86 61 79 57 / 20 80 50 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for Coastal Flagler-Coastal St. Johns-Inland Flagler-Inland St. Johns.

GA . None. AM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL	39 mi	48 min	ESE 5.1 G 6	75°F			1012.7 hPa (+0.3)	74°F
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL	44 mi	48 min	S 6 G 7	79°F			1012.8 hPa (+0.0)	75°F
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL	78 mi	114 min	Calm G 1	79°F			1011.7 hPa

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Cross City Airport, FL	16 mi	53 min	NW 3	10.00 mi	Fair	73°F	72°F	98%	1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCTY

Wind History from CTY (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Steinhatchee River ent., Deadman Bay, Florida

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Tide / Current Tables for Pepperfish Keys, Florida

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL

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Gulf Stream Current

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