Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hunters Creek Village, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Several showers and storms are ongoing over the Gulf this afternoon, tracking with the passing shortwave moving over the area. Any additional convection should track eastward with this shortwave trough, resulting in rain chances decreasing from west to east later this evening. However, there is still some modest instability present, broadly higher inland and lower closer to the coast/over the gulf waters. The apex of bulk shear is progged to trail behind the main region of lift, but there's still a modest 25-40 knots that will overlap with some of our convection this afternoon. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of Severe Storms this afternoon with damaging winds and large hail being the primary concerns. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible too in some of these storms too. Severe threat is isolated, and convection overall is looking fairly sparse inland, though that may change as skies are beginning to scatter out.

Should see a lull in rains tonight into portions of Sunday as the shortwave aloft continues east. Onshore flow should be back in place, but still only for a brief time, as a cold front should push into SE Texas late Sunday night. A positive tilt midlevel shortwave trough will also be moving over the northern half of the state at this time, helping supply additional lift with the FROPA. In addition, a small area of diffluence also appears to form in the upper levels between the shortwave trough and the subtropical jet, around portions of central/eastern Texas, which may further enhance lift. Instability looks broadly better across the board, some areas progged to get around 2000-3000 ML CAPE with even higher values of MU CAPE possible. Midlevel lapse rates are still generally favorable too, around 7-7.8 J/KG early in the evening with TEI values near 26. Bulk shear near 35 knots, cloud layer shear around 80 knots, and modest DCAPE ~900 J/KG will also be present as well. CAP weakens in the afternoon, so some convection ahead of the front will be possible, though the main bulk of storms should come in the late evening as the front pushes into the Brazos Valley and eventually off the coast by Monday morning.

SPC has our northern tier of counties under a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Weather for Sunday/early Monday morning with a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) extending southward past the I-10 corridor. Damaging winds and hail remain the primary hazards with these storms. The severe weather threat begins Sunday afternoon with a few isolated pop-up storms possible, then reaches it's apex during the evening hours as the front pushes into the Brazos Valley. After midnight, the chances of severe weather should be declining as the front pushes south, fully coming to an end later in the morning on Monday as storms push out of the area.

Monday should see breezy, cooler and drier weather as high pressure fills over the area in the wake of the cold front. A mid to upper level ridge will also build across the Four Corners region, ushering in a period of benign weather through the next several days. This ridge aloft should shift easterly, along with surface high pressure, allowing onshore winds to return around Tuesday night. This will allow moisture to rebuild as temperatures rise through mid week.
Highs should be in the upper 70s/80s (isolated 90s possible) with lows in the 60s/70s. Around Thursday, the ridge aloft will weaken slightly as vorticity impulses & a shortwave trough push in from the Great Basin. The ridge itself will also shift east of the area on Friday, weakening it's influence over the area. Still, onshore flow and warm wx should remain in place with slim rain chances through the end of the work week.

03

AVIATION
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Mix of LIFR to MVFR conditions for much of SE Texas this morning due to lower cigs and areas of patchy to dense fog reducing vis.
Fog will burn off and cigs will gradually lift after 15Z, scattering out in the afternoon. IAH and sites northward could see some iso showers for the rest of the morning, although impacts should be minimal. A larger area of showers is currently moving into the Matagorda Bay region and could affect sites in and south of HOU through the mid morning hours. Another round of showers and storms are possible during the late afternoon to early evening hours.

Winds will remain light and variable for much of the day, becoming SE at 5-10 KTS later in the afternoon. Model guidance is suggesting MVFR cigs returning during the overnight to early Sun morning hours, along with areas of patchy fog.

Cotto

MARINE
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Showers and thunderstorms continue over the Gulf waters this afternoon. Cannot rule out some additional storms developing near or over the coastline this afternoon either. These thunderstorms could produce higher winds, seas and lower visibility from heavier rainfall. Anticipate a lull rainfall this evening through Sunday afternoon. A cold front should push off the coast late Sunday night through early Monday morning, bringing another round of showers and storms across the bays and waters. Light to moderate northeast winds are expected after the front, shifting southeasterly Tuesday night.

03

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 69 86 67 79 / 0 0 80 10 Houston (IAH) 72 88 71 83 / 0 10 70 10 Galveston (GLS) 76 83 74 84 / 0 0 50 20

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.