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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 326 Am Cst Tue Dec 5 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Wednesday morning...
Today..North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest this afternoon. Waves around 2 feet this morning, then 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming north 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Waves around 2 feet, building to 3 to 4 feet after midnight.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots, diminishing to around 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Friday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Friday night..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers, mainly in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 326 Am Cst Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
high pressure will continue to build into the area with light northerly winds expected. A reinforcing cold front will sweep through the waters late tonight, and this will push northerly winds increase to small craft advisory thresholds from late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. Winds will then relax back to around 10 to 15 knots and shift to the east and then southeast Thursday afternoon as high pressure passes to the north. By Friday, the high will be east of the waters and a moderate onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots is expected.

FXUS64 KLIX 050955 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 355 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Relatively benign conditions continue today before a weak cold front moves through the area. This frontal passage is expected to be dry due to the low moisture in the area. Only real impacts on the weather would be to bring a shot of some cooler air and slightly stronger winds. The temperatures will be slightly below the average especially Wed morning with some frost possible north of I-12. Other than that, high pressure roughly over the ArkLaTex region will continue to build. This will remain over the area through most of the work week with the wind speeds still light.



LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 328 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023 The temperatures will generally moderate through the rest of the work week. As the high pressure continues to move eastward winds will eventually shift to out of the south/southeast. This will allow moisture to pump back into the area. A more robust cold front will then through the area Saturday into Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected through Saturday and early Sunday but should be drying out by late Sunday. The best environmental conditions for this event currently appear to remain to the east and north in Louisiana and SPC currently has a slight risk outlooked for that area Day 5. However, it is close enough that we could possibly see impacts in SE Louisiana so it will have to be continued to be monitored closely as it gets closer. Once the front moves through, the rest of Sunday into Monday will be dry and cooler again.



AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 328 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

VFR conditions are expected through the entire forecast. Only concerns is the potential for some low level wind shear due to a cold front traversing the area late tonight into tomorrow morning.
In addition, some slightly stronger northerly winds are possible in the wake of the weak cold front with NEW the most likely to see some higher winds in the 15 kt range with gusts up to 20 kt.
The rest of the terminals will be closer to the 10 knot range.

MARINE
Issued at 328 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Weak offshore flow currently will hold through the rest of today, but going into the late Tuesday night into early Wednesday hours, the winds will switch to onshore along with stronger winds due to a cold front. This will be most pronounced near the tidal lakes/sounds and south of the MS sound so a small craft advisory has been issued for those areas. Outside of that, there may a small craft exercise caution headline or an expansion of the current small craft advisory. The winds will begin to slack again Wednesday evening and then transition back to light offshore flow through Thursday. The weekend will be the next chance of stronger winds as another more potent cold front moves through the area.



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 65 37 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 68 42 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 66 41 60 34 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 64 49 58 44 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 65 42 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 66 40 61 32 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-555-557-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday for GMZ532-534-536-538-555-557-577.

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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:40 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:11 AM CST     0.78 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:43 PM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:59 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:46 PM CST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Shell Beach
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Tue -- 06:24 AM CST     0.91 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:39 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:41 PM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:58 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:48 PM CST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana, Tide feet

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