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GMZ435 Vermilion And West Cote Blanche Bays- 616 Am Cst Fri Dec 1 2023
.dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am cst Saturday...
Today..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Patchy fog. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms this morning. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early this afternoon, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms early.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers with Thunderstorms likely after midnight. Patchy fog.
Saturday..Southwest winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers. Patchy fog.
Saturday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Patchy fog.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Monday night..Northeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Tuesday..East winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 616 Am Cst Fri Dec 1 2023
Synopsis..
winds and high seas will continue to diminish this morning, becoming light and variable by late morning through tonight. Areas of dense fog expected to expand eastward across the near shore waters, lakes and bays later this morning, and continue through Saturday morning as the warm moist air resides over the cooler sea surface. Another round of showers and Thunderstorms is expected to develop late Friday into Saturday as another upper level disturbance crosses the region. By Saturday afternoon, a weak cold front will slide very slowly across the coastal waters, with a light offshore flow expected in its wake. Winds will eventually become light and variable by Sunday as the weak surface high pressure moves over the area.

FXUS64 KLCH 011517 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 917 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 909 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

The dense fog advisory has been allowed to expire on time this morning, however reduced vis will still linger into late morning, especially along the cost of Acadiana.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday night)

Wx map shows 1003 mb surface low over MO, lifting northeast, with a decreasing pressure gradient over our region, diminishing our winds significantly across inland areas. Offshore, winds and seas are slowly diminishing as well. Radar showing line of strong to severe thunderstorms over Acadiana. Already had wind gusts to 61 mph at the Lafayette airport and 54 mph at the New Iberia airport with this severe cell.

This line of thunderstorms is expected to slowly move southeast for the next several hours and gradually weaken by daybreak.
Another slightly weaker upper level disturbance expected to bring another round of showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening, likely lingering across South Central Louisiana once again during the early morning hours Saturday.

For Severe Weather potential, SPC has the area along and south of the I-10 corridor in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms possible. Wind gusts over 50 mph the most likely severe weather parameter. However, cannot rule out a brief spin up tornado.

The other threat will be excessive heavy rainfall, as the I-10 corridor from Lake Charles to Lafayette has already had around 5 to 8 inches of rainfall. In fact, this is the heaviest rainfall this region has received since April 6th-7th earlier this year.
Thus, most of this has been soaked up in the exceptionally dry and parched ground from this past summer and fall, with the exception of the urban areas that saw brief flooding of streets. This area remains under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall through 6 AM Saturday. Most of the area north of I-10 will likely see around 1 inch of additional rainfall or less with the next disturbance later this afternoon and overnight. Areas south of I-10 across Southwest Louisiana, and most of Acadiana region of South Central Louisiana will likely receive another 1 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts through early Saturday morning.

For the remainder of the day Saturday and Saturday night, the mid to upper level flow aloft will remain from the southwest as the longwave trough axis remains to our west. This will keep lingering moisture and weak lift for the chances of showers and a few thunderstorms to continue.

For Sunday, the longwave mid to upper level trough axis from the Midwest southward to Texas/Louisiana will be moving slowly eastward.
Chances of showers expected to be ending over Lower Acadiana before daybreak Sunday, and ending across the eastern coastal waters by late morning.

08/DML

LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday)

A longwave trough centers over the western Great Lakes and central Plains Monday morning with a broad surface high extending over the southern Plains and Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile a modest low pressure downstream will continue to shift east over the Gulf of Maine / NW Atlantic waters. Stronger low level and surface CAA will remain northeast of SETX/SWLA area through Tuesday as the high pressure continues to broaden over the southern states. Locally, subsidence aloft should keep the area precipitation free as another shortwave trough develops over Alberta and shifts across the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley into Tuesday evening. While no POPS develop from the associated surface low, southern Louisiana will be clipped by the tail of the cold front as the system skirts off the Delmarva Peninsula by Wednesday morning. Highs will stay in the lower to mid 60’s during the midweek before surface high pressure descending from the Rockies to the lower Tennessee Valley Thursday evening allows flow to shift onshore.

Hereafter, the pattern becomes less resolved as a weak trough attempts to deepen over northern Mexico with deterministic model analysis remaining on the dry side while Ensemble and NBM approaches are wetter. With these more vigorous solutions, surface troughing would allow precip to develop across western and northern portions of the Gulf of Mexico. At this time, not enough support is there to put POPs in at the end of the forecast period, however, given the El Nino pattern, this is a signal to watch for as guidance comes into better alignment. Otherwise, SETX / SWLA will be on the western periphery of the surface high allowing gentle WAA with a southeasterly regime to resume and persist through the end the upcoming work week.

Kowalski/30

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)

Intermittent LIFR visibility/ceiling due to areas of dense fog expected at BPT/LCH through 14-15z. IFR to occasional LIFR ceilings expected to prevail at all sites for today and tonight.
The next round of SHRA/TSRA expected to impact the area by late this afternoon and most of the evening hours, slowly diminishing.
After 06z, the lingering SHRA/TSRA expected over SC LA affecting ARA/LFT. Further north and west, areas of dense fog possible once again as ceilings/visibilities lower to LIFR.

08/DML

MARINE

For the marine dense fog. Most visibility guidance shows fog expanding eastward after 9 AM CST and remain for most of the day through Saturday morning until the weak northerly flow hopefully clears it out some. Seems reasonable with light and variable winds along with the mid/upper dewpoints continuing over the water temperatures in the lower 60s. While we may have brief improvement with the next wave of SHRA/TSRA, visibilities will likely plummet once again tonight after the precipitation tapers off. Thus, will keep all of the the 0-20 nm & inland lakes/bays zones in a Dense Fog Advisory through 9 AM CST Saturday. Otherwise, another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop late Friday into Saturday as another upper level disturbance crosses the region. By Saturday afternoon, a weak cold front will slide very slowly across the coastal waters, with a light offshore flow expected in its wake. Winds will eventually become light and variable by Sunday as the weak surface high pressure moves over the area.

08/DML

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 74 57 70 51 / 20 90 40 10 LCH 74 63 72 53 / 30 90 40 10 LFT 76 66 73 59 / 50 90 70 30 BPT 74 62 72 53 / 50 80 20 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ430-432-435- 436-450-452-455.

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Cypremort Point
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Fri -- 01:54 AM CST     1.61 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:47 AM CST     1.51 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:44 AM CST     1.52 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:45 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:42 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:55 PM CST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:07 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:04 PM CST     Moonrise
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Cypremort Point, Louisiana, Tide feet

Southwest Pass
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Fri -- 06:45 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:43 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 12:03 PM CST     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:08 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:05 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:49 PM CST     1.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Southwest Pass, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet

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