Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port St. Joe, FL

SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

The ridge flattens over the weekend as a couple weak shortwaves move across the Tennessee Valley. This could bring some isolated showers and thunderstorms to the northern fringes of the forecast area, mainly north of a Dothan to Fitzgerald line. Rain chances are around 15-20% at most. We'll have to see how upstream complexes of storms evolve if they can make it this far south. The environment on Saturday is characterized by ample instability and quite a bit of DCAPE given mid-level dry air. There's also sufficient deep-layer shear on the order of 40-50 kt. Thus, if storms can make it to our area late Saturday afternoon and evening, some strong gusty winds are possible in the strongest storms. Could be a sneaky setup, and SPC does have our far northern row of Georgia counties clipped by a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. A similar environment remains in place for Sunday as well. Temperatures remain toasty with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Ridging returns again for Monday and Tuesday with heat remaining the main concern. Highs remain in the mid-90s through Tuesday.
More substantial troughing begins to dig over the eastern US by the middle of the week, bringing some reprieve in temperatures. A cold will move across the southeast, bringing some scattered showers and thunderstorms to the forecast with rain chances around 30-40%. The heat, as a result, will be less oppressive with temperatures returning back to the mid to upper 80s by late week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Some low stratus is beginning to develop near ECP and DHN, which will gradually spread eastward through the night. IFR to LIFR cigs are expected through about 13z, gradually lifting back to VFR after 15-16z. Some fog is possible with the greatest potential of categorical restrictions at VLD, TLH, and ECP. Some gusty SW winds are possible at ECP and DHN after 17-18z up to 20 kt. Light SW winds are expected elsewhere.

MARINE
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

High pressure over the western Atlantic nosing into the eastern Gulf will result in predominantly light southwesterly winds for the next several days. Seas will be around 2 to 3 feet each day with no significant marine impacts anticipated.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

High dispersions are expected across inland areas over the next couple of days thanks to southwesterly transport winds around 10-15 mph and high mixing heights near 5,000 feet each afternoon.
Closer to the coast, dispersions will still be good each day. The main concern will be the heat with temperatures in the mid-90s during the afternoon with heat index values in the upper 90s to near 100. A few isolated storms are possible Saturday and Sunday afternoons, mainly north of a line from Dothan to Albany.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

No flooding is expected over the next couple of days. Some locally heavy downpours are possible in some storms this weekend, but these should be quick moving and should not result in flood concerns.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 95 69 96 70 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 85 73 85 72 / 0 0 0 10 Dothan 93 71 93 71 / 0 0 10 10 Albany 95 70 94 71 / 0 0 10 10 Valdosta 96 69 96 71 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 90 67 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 84 72 84 72 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GMZ735.