Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carrabelle, FL

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(This Evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Ridging remains situated over the southeast US with some dry air remaining in place through this weekend. Meanwhile, a surge of moisture will move northward along the western periphery of the ridge. This will mostly affect the western and central Gulf Coast, but may scrape our western Panhandle and Alabama counties. Thus, through the weekend, our rain chances are low (20-40%) along and west of a line from Dothan to Mexico Beach, mainly for Saturday afternoon. PWATs will range from 1.7 to 1.9 inches over the westernmost communities to less than an inch farther east. Some gusty wind and locally heavy downpour risk exists if a stronger storm were to develop.

Drier air remains over the area Sunday and Monday as ridging remains overhead. This will also allow temperatures to heat up a good bit.
Highs by Monday will be in the low to mid 90s areawide. Lows will similarly warm from the upper 60s tonight to the mid 70s by Monday night. Given the hot daytime temperatures and the very warm low temperatures, the chances for major heat impacts will increase.
Those without adequate cooling or hydration or those who are sensitive to heat impacts will have a higher chance of being affected by this level of heat.

Ridging will weaken mid to late week, which will allow for a return to slightly less hot temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s, but the humidity will be on the increase. So our heat index values will climb to the upper 90s and low 100s. Additionally, we'll see a gradual increase in our daily shower and storm chances through the week.

LONG TERM

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period, with light winds generally 5-10kts.

MARINE
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Cautionary conditions continue this evening over the Gulf waters west of Apalachicola with moderate southeasterly winds.
Prevailing surface high pressure to the north will foster moderate southeast breezes this weekend with weakening nocturnal surges.
Daily afternoon seabreezes will dominate once again early next week against a background of mainly east to southeast breezes.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Warm and dry weather continues for the next couple of days with a gradual warming trend continuing into next week. Only isolated showers and storms are expected this weekend over the FL Panhandle and southeast AL. Transport winds this weekend will primarily be out of the south to southeast around 10-15 mph, though becoming more south to southwest behind the sea breeze each afternoon. By Monday, with high pressure overhead, winds will be more variable.
Dispersions will remain good area-wide. Min RH values will remain in the mid 30s to mid 40s over the next 3 days.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Rainfall will be rather sparse over the next week with only isolated to scattered showers and storms in the forecast. Thus, while localized nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out, flooding concerns are low. All area rivers have fallen below action stage as well.

Severe to exceptional drought continues for areas generally east of the Apalachicola and Flint Rivers as these areas missed out on the most beneficial recent rains and rivers are struggling to recover.
For more information on local drought impacts, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 89 67 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 88 69 88 72 / 0 0 10 0 Dothan 86 64 89 69 / 0 0 10 10 Albany 87 66 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 89 65 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 91 66 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 83 74 85 73 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.