Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carrabelle, FL

SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 231 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Showers and storms should be more miss than hit Wednesday and Thursday, or more isolated in nature. Highs reach into the lower to middle 90s each afternoon with lows in the middle 70s. Heat indices will make a run at the 100 to 105 degree range, especially across out Florida counties, both afternoons.

This thanks to a 592dm H5 ridge nudging in from the Atlantic, helping to squash rain chances in the afternoon. However, there's still enough moisture in the lower levels between 1000-700mb that some isolated showers and storms are expected both afternoons with the best chance across our Florida counties. A bit more southwesterly flow is anticipated Thursday afternoon, helping to nudge rain chances up ever so slightly compared to Wednesday. Any showers and storms that are able to develop Wednesday afternoon will be capable of producing very gusty winds thanks to DCAPE values around 1000-1100 J/kg. A bit more moisture works into the region Thursday afternoon, reducing the chance for very gusty winds a bit thanks to DCAPE values closer to 600-800 J/kg.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 231 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A cold front will be nearing our Georgia and Alabama counties during the day Friday. However, the H5 trough pushing the front south will be in the process of lifting out Friday, so the front is expected to stall out somewhere across the Southeast. The ultimate location of the stalling front will be the focal point for the best chance for showers and storms Friday into Friday night. The front washes out over the weekend as a big ole H5 ridge begins to take over the Mid- Atlantic. The sprawling nature of this ridge means we'll be under its influence over the weekend into early next week as we see temperatures surge into the middle to upper 90s. Heat indices will approach 105 across a large chunk of the area with a few spots likely to exceed 108 degrees, or our criteria for issuing Heat Advisories, which would be the first of the year for us.

As far as rain chances are concerned, they're still there each afternoon, primarily along the seabreeze later in the afternoon into the evening. Interestingly, there will be a few vorticity maxima rotating from east to west underneath the ridge over our area.
Combine this with a surface high off the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas and the East Coast seabreeze may have a bit more oomph to it near the end of the forecast period. This is something we'll watch as the mean 1000-700mb flow is predominantly out of the east with a few surges of low-level relative humidity expected to move through. This has kept rain chances somewhat elevated in the extended forecast.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A patch of MVFR stratus is moving through DHN and now. DHN and ABY will have the best chances of MVFR cigs this morning with VFR conditions likely elsewhere. However, have kept a SCT020 deck in the TAFs elsewhere for the possibility of some transient lower cigs. Otherwise, less coverage of TSRA today outside of DHN. Thus, have PROB30s at all sites this after with a prevailing VCTS this afternoon at DHN. Winds will generally be southerly around 5-10 kt with some gusts near 20 kt at ECP this afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 231 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Light to gentle southerly to southwesterly breezes remain over the northeastern Gulf through the middle of the week thanks to a sprawling surface high in the western Atlantic. The high gets pushed south Friday into the weekend, allowing more westerly breezes to take over. Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms continue, especially during the overnight and morning hours each day.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 231 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Widespread wetting rains the last several days preclude any fire weather concerns. High dispersions are possible across the area today with southerly transport winds around 10-15 mph. The winds become lighter toward the end of the week, but mixing heights will increase, resulting in good to excellent dispersions.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 231 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Despite somewhat lower rain chances the next few days, locally heavy downpours remain a concern thanks to precipitable water values exceeding the 50th percentile for mid-late June. Some quick ponding on the roads and minor flooding of low-lying areas is possible due to the slow movement of the showers and storms.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 92 73 92 74 / 30 0 50 10 Panama City 89 78 89 78 / 30 10 50 20 Dothan 91 73 92 73 / 50 0 40 10 Albany 93 73 93 74 / 30 10 30 10 Valdosta 94 73 94 73 / 20 10 40 10 Cross City 93 72 93 73 / 30 10 40 10 Apalachicola 87 78 88 78 / 20 10 40 20

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.