Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carrabelle, FL

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Drier air is still hanging out over the eastern half of the region with a bit of low-level moisture returning to our Florida Panhandle and southeastern Alabama counties. This trend will continue throughout the day and should lead to better shower and thunderstorm chances across our Florida and southeastern Alabama counties. Temperatures will manage the middle 90s across much of the region this afternoon. Lows will only be able to dip into the middle to upper 70s later tonight.

SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Ridging is forecast to persist over the eastern CONUS with our local area on the southern periphery with easterly flow.
Subsidence from the ridging will keep the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms fairly low across the northern half of the area, with the best chance on Sunday across the Apalachicola National Forest in association with the convergent afternoon seabreezes.
Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees above average with highs reaching well into the mid 90s with overnight lows mainly in the mid 70s. Peak heat index values may approach the local heat advisory criteria of 108F across portions of the Florida panhandle, although most areas will generally range from 100-107.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025

A fairly stagnant pattern is expected with strong upper level ridging centered across the Mid-Atlantic states. This will provide deep layer easterly flow across our area with temperatures remaining above average, generally in the mid to upper 90s for highs and mid 70s for lows. Mid-level dry air and subsidence are expected to keep rain chances on the low side overall with the best chance during the afternoon across the Florida panhandle with some enhancement from the seabreeze. Peak heat index values are mainly expected to be in the 103-107 range each afternoon with some higher values possible at times across the Florida panhandle.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail through the TAF period with a light to moderate easterly breeze; a southerly breeze develops this afternoon for KECP and KTLH thanks to the seabreeze. Shower and thunderstorm chances are marginally better this afternoon with the highest chances near KECP, KDHN, and KTLH Have maintained the PROB30s for those sites for later today. Skies clear tonight as a calm wind takes over. Fog is a concern near the end of the TAF period if any of the aerodromes experiences heavy rain later this afternoon. However, confidence wasn't high enough to include in the TAFs at this time.

MARINE
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025

For this weekend, the Bermuda High over the western Atlantic and Gulf will shift northward a bit, bringing more of a light southeasterly flow. Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms continue, especially during the overnight and morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Fire weather concerns remain low the next couple of days. The best chances for rain today will be across our Florida and Alabama districts with lower dispersions anticipated across our Georgia districts. Temperatures will be in the middle to upper 90s the next several days. Relative humidity is forecast to drop to around 40 percent across much of the region today.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Storm coverage is expected to be fairly low for the next few days across the northern portions of the area with the greatest coverage of storms across the Florida panhandle. Some localized heavy downpours are possible in storms, which can result in quick ponding or localized flash flooding in poor drainage or low-lying areas.
However, widespread flooding concerns are not anticipated.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 95 74 93 75 / 40 20 60 20 Panama City 93 77 92 76 / 40 20 60 30 Dothan 92 74 93 74 / 40 10 40 10 Albany 94 74 94 74 / 20 10 30 10 Valdosta 96 74 95 73 / 20 10 30 10 Cross City 95 72 95 71 / 40 20 60 20 Apalachicola 90 78 89 78 / 30 20 50 50

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.