Sunrise 7:02 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 4:28 PM   Moonset 4:26 AM

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GMZ755 Expires:202404202115;;060545 Fzus52 Ktae 200811 Cwftae
coastal waters forecast for florida big bend and eastern panhandle national weather service tallahassee fl 411 am edt Sat apr 20 2024
gulf coastal waters from the mouth of the suwannee river to okaloosa-walton county line out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
gmz730-750-752-755-765-202115- apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from suwannee river to keaton beach fl out 20 nm- 411 am edt Sat apr 20 2024 /311 am cdt Sat apr 20 2024/
Today - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest late. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds this afternoon. Protected waters a light chop. Areas of fog this morning. Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 3 seconds in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop. Sunday - West winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet with a dominant period of 3 seconds in the afternoon. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming north 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 3 seconds. Protected waters choppy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Monday - North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 3 seconds. Protected waters choppy. A slight chance of showers in the morning. Monday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Tuesday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Tuesday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop. Wednesday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop. Wednesday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 411 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024
Synopsis -
boating conditions will become a little rough Sunday afternoon through Monday as scattered showers and Thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold front. Elevated winds and seas are likely with Thunderstorms and cautionary conditions may be possible following the cold front late Sunday evening through early Monday. Winds and seas will become favorable again heading into Tuesday, and should remain pleasant through the rest of the week.

FXUS62 KTAE 200810 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 410 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 403 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

This morning we are watching satellite for fog and stratus development which started primarily in the western FL Panhandle and far southeastern FL Big Bend and has slowly spread north and eastwards. At this time, only a handful of sites have fallen below one mile, bouncing down to a quarter of a mile at times. It's quite possible we get widespread reduced visibilities; however, satellite also shows high cloud racing in from the west. At this time, confidence is too low to go with a Dense Fog Advisory, but as we get closer to sunrise, we may need to issue one for a few hours. Should the sunrise surprise fog happen, in addition to any fog that developed before hand, it should quickly dissipate after a couple of hours.

The attention then turns to the shower and thunderstorm threat for today. A mid level a shortwave pushes in from the west, which will slowly push a cold front that is currently well to our north towards us. For this event, where favoring more of a high CAPE/low shear event, which should keep storm mode in the cellular nature.
Damaging winds look to be the most likely of hazards, as shear from 0-6km remains around 20-25kt. The SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather for SE AL and portions of SW GA. The WPC briefly touched our western edge of the AL counties with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall.
Current rainfall totals, for today and Sunday, max out around 0.5-1.0 inches for SE AL, 0.25- 0.75 across SW GA, 0.25-0.5" along and north of I-10, and south of I- 10 0.1-0.25". Those amounts in SE AL don't necessarily correspond with Excessive Rain or flash flooding, but it should be noted that PWATS look to be around 1.8 to 2.2 inches. Some hi-res guidance suggests the possibility of 3-5 inches of rain, should we be able to tap into that moisture and perhaps have some training cells in SE AL.

SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 403 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

The upper level pattern will begin to push a cold front through the region on Sunday, creating a more widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms than Saturday. Although, the instability for Sunday will be limited but more probable in the Florida Big Bend region, while shear values will be decent enough for the potential of an isolated strong to severe storm with damaging wind gusts and hail possible. PoPs for Sunday are about 60-70% for areas along and north of I-10 Sunday afternoon, and shift east towards the Big Bend during the evening and overnight hours, with PoPs decreasing to about 50%. Temperatures for our AL and northwestern GA counties will be cooler on Sunday due to cloud cover and rain, with highs expected to be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Elsewhere in the region, highs will be around 80. The cold front will make its passage during the evening and overnight hours, shifting the winds to the northwest and north. Temperatures will respond accordingly, with high temperatures on Monday forecast to be in the low to mid 70s. Potential radiational cooling is expected Monday night as we will have clearing skies and light northeasterly winds that will bring temperatures down to the upper 40s and low 50s Monday night.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 403 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Frontal passage will be completed by the start of the Long Term.
Cool temperatures to start in the 50s for Tuesday morning and warm to the mid to upper 70s by the afternoon. A surface high will be holding steady over the region for the next several days which will allow for a quick warmup back to the mid-80s for high temperatures, with overnight lows warming to the mid-60s. No measurable rain is expected for the long term.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 156 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Tricky aviation forecast this morning, with satellite starting to show fog on via the night fog product but it is not very well defined yet on the RGB advanced nighttime microphysics. KECP has been the only TAF site to drop ahead of the signal, with the latest METARS reporting either fog and smoke or mist and smoke.
This could be due to lingering smoke from nearby burns, which is some what modeled via the HRRR. Tried to account for that looking at the current observations, modeled threat for fog,and the LVORI.
But confidence is low as KECP has been bouncing around as we could vary from MVFR to VLIFR. Outside of that, confidence is highest that the FL counties have the best chance for fog, with confidence lowering as you go north to KVLD and KDHN and then KABY. Opted to generally keep the same trend of the forecast. Any fog and/or stratus that does develop this morning should erode a couple of hours after sunrise.

Then the next concern will be the chance for showers and thunderstorms, particularly over SE AL and SW GA this afternoon and evening. Guidance is a bit all over the place with how long these will last, with hi-res guidance showing a potential break during the overnight hours. Timing will likely be refined over the next two TAF cycles.

MARINE
Issued at 403 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Boating conditions will become a little rough Sunday afternoon through Monday as scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold front. Elevated winds and seas are likely with thunderstorms and cautionary conditions may be possible following the cold front late Sunday evening through early Monday. Winds and seas will become favorable again heading into Tuesday, and should remain pleasant through the rest of the week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 403 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

The main fire weather concerns over the period will be possible low dispersions in SE AL today and then high dispersions for SE AL, the FL Panhandle, and western FL Big Bend counties on Monday.
Outside of that, look for wetter weather is forecast today and tomorrow, with a front working its way through on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible today for areas north of I-10, particularly favoring the AL and GA counties. Tomorrow, as the front moves through, all of the service area has should see rain, with pockets of wetting rain possible. After that, expect a period of drier weather.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 403 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Rain chances begin to increase today through Sunday night. The systems will be moving somewhat quickly with rainfall accumulations not expected to exceed 1.0 inches, although isolated higher amounts may be possible.

In addition to the Apalachicola, St Marks, Withlacoochee, Aucilla, and Ochlockonee rivers remaining in flood, the Suwanee has now risen into flood at Rock Creek, Luraville, and Branford.
Expect possible rises to continue down the Suwannee with additional points possibly reaching flood in the days ahead.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 86 65 80 56 / 20 10 60 30 Panama City 80 66 76 54 / 10 10 60 20 Dothan 84 60 69 50 / 50 30 70 10 Albany 85 62 70 52 / 50 40 80 20 Valdosta 86 66 80 55 / 30 30 60 40 Cross City 84 62 82 58 / 0 0 30 40 Apalachicola 78 68 77 57 / 0 0 50 30

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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Carrabelle
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:14 AM EDT     1.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:38 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:02 PM EDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:51 PM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Carrabelle, Carrabelle River, Florida, Tide feet

Turkey Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:53 AM EDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:58 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:16 PM EDT     2.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:20 PM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Turkey Point, FSU Lab, Florida (2), Tide feet

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