Tuesday, January28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Carrabelle, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 6:10PM Tuesday January 28, 2020 8:37 PM EST (01:37 UTC) Moonrise 10:00AMMoonset 9:43PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ755 Expires:202001290815;;658307 Fzus52 Ktae 281944 Cwftae Coastal Waters Forecast For Florida Big Bend And Eastern Panhandle National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl 244 Pm Est Tue Jan 28 2020 Gulf Coastal Waters From The Mouth Of The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-290815- Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 244 Pm Est Tue Jan 28 2020 /144 Pm Cst Tue Jan 28 2020/
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of rain in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Rain likely in the afternoon.
Wednesday night through Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers in the evening.
Thursday night..East winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers through the night.
Friday through Friday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of rain showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Saturday through Saturday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds in the afternoon. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Sunday..West winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 244 Pm Est Tue Jan 28 2020
Synopsis.. Winds and seas at or just below cautionary levels should be expected through the week. Showers and isolated storms are forecast Wednesday afternoon through the night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carrabelle, FL
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location: 29.85, -84.67     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 282325 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 625 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

AVIATION. [Through 00Z Thursday]

VFR conditions and light winds expected through Wednesday morning. An area of rain will then move in west to east by late morning with CIGS slowly falling throughout the afternoon, eventually landing near 1500-2000ft by the end of the TAF period. They look to fall into the IFR range after 00z. Timing of the category changes may be off by an hour or two in either directions and updates/amendments will be needed.

PREV DISCUSSION [315 PM EST].

NEAR TERM [Tonight Through Tomorrow].

A fairly progressive upper level shortwave trough is currently over SW Texas, and is expected to move into the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday morning. A weak surface low pressure system has developed across the Oklahoma Texas border in conjunction with the aforementioned upper level shortwave trough, and is expected to quickly dive south into the northern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday through Wednesday night. This surface low pressure system is expected to remain weak as the upper level trough quickly becomes vertically stacked across our region. With the warm sector generally remaining south of our region over the Gulf of Mexico, severe weather is not expected. The immediate coastline may have the potential for a storm or two to produce gusty winds; however forecast temperatures inland and along the coastline remain stable enough for any surface based storms coming onshore to quickly become decoupled. Widespread rain is mainly expected across the region tomorrow. Highs will generally remain in the upper 50s to low 60s across the region, with lows tonight bottoming out into the low 40s.

SHORT TERM [Tomorrow Night Through Thursday Night].

Any lingering showers across the region will quickly be exiting our eastern zones as the upper level trough and associated surface low pressure system quickly exit off the Florida east coast early Thursday morning. Clouds may linger through the day on Thursday; however, mostly zonal flow and weak high pressure building across the region may provide enough subsidence to provide some breaks ahead of the next system on Friday and Saturday. Highs will generally peak in the mid 60s across the region, and lows Wednesday night will fall into the mid 40s.

LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday].

An extremely complicated upper level pattern is expected to produce an active weather period Friday through Saturday, and over the early to mid part of the next work week. This weekends system currently is expected to produce more widespread rainfall compared to this weeks mid-week system; however, it will once again be progressive. The warm sector of low pressure system over the weekend will likely remain offshore preventing any development of severe storms. Expect isentropic lift across the entire region to produce a large rain shield responsible for widespread rain Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Tuesday's system is something to watch; however, at this time predictability is too low to determine the extent of any possible severe threat.

MARINE.

Winds and seas at or just below Cautionary levels should be expected through the week. Showers and isolated storms are forecast Wednesday afternoon through the night.

FIRE WEATHER.

Precipitation chance increases tomorrow afternoon. A drying trend will follow on Thursday. No fire weather concerns over the next two days.

HYDROLOGY.

The next two systems (Wednesday and Friday/Saturday) will bring some rain to the region, but with both of these systems anticipated to be fairly weak and quick movers, rainfall amounts should only be an inch or so. This will have little more no impact on area river levels. The next substantial system does not look to affect our region until the middle of next week. Thus, there are no flood concerns through the next several days.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 41 61 45 65 48 / 0 70 30 0 30 Panama City 48 63 47 64 52 / 0 80 10 0 40 Dothan 42 57 42 62 47 / 0 80 20 0 30 Albany 40 59 43 62 46 / 0 80 30 0 20 Valdosta 39 61 45 64 48 / 0 60 40 0 20 Cross City 41 66 47 67 50 / 0 60 50 0 10 Apalachicola 48 62 48 63 52 / 0 80 20 0 40

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AL . None. GM . None.

NEAR TERM . Bunker SHORT TERM . Bunker LONG TERM . Bunker AVIATION . LN MARINE . Bunker FIRE WEATHER . DiCatarina HYDROLOGY . Godsey


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 12 mi113 min Calm 1017 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 19 mi68 min 56°F 56°F1016.6 hPa
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 25 mi104 min Calm G 1 57°F 1015.5 hPa
SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL 32 mi98 min Calm G 0 60°F 1016.2 hPa (+1.1)38°F

Wind History for Apalachicola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Apalachicola, Apalachicola, FL21 mi45 minN 010.00 miFair49°F43°F80%1016.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAAF

Wind History from AAF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N6N5CalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE4NE5NE6NE4NE5NE6NE96SE8SE7S7S7S5SW4CalmCalm
1 day agoNE4SE7N3E6E5NE4NE5NE7NE9NE7E9E6E7E4E6E6NE6NE5NE4NE6NE4N7N5N5
2 days agoNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4N4N3NE5NE5NE4S5S7SW4SW3W3N3CalmSE4

Tide / Current Tables for Carrabelle, Carrabelle River, Florida
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Carrabelle
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:41 AM EST     1.92 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:30 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:59 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:58 AM EST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:37 PM EST     1.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:12 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:43 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:37 PM EST     0.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.41.71.91.91.81.410.60.1-0.2-0.3-0.20.10.50.81.11.31.31.210.80.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for Turkey Point, FSU Lab, Florida (2)
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Turkey Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:17 AM EST     2.41 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:30 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:49 AM EST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:59 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:11 PM EST     2.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:11 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:42 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:55 PM EST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.82.22.42.321.40.80.2-0.1-0.2-00.411.62.12.32.21.91.40.90.50.40.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.