Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hackberry, LA

UPDATE
Issued at 924 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Updated forecast to adjust pops for the remainder of the night based on latest radar trends and short term hi-res guidance.
Strong to severe storms possible for about another hour over east central Louisiana. Could be a brief break in overall shower activity after midnight before showers reform before daybreak along the front between the I-10 corridor the Louisiana coast.

Rua

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Afternoon surface analysis shows low pressure centered over Iowa/Missouri with a cold front draped S/SW across the Ark-La-Tex to the Rio Grande Valley. Across the forecast area, partly cloudy skies, temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and breezy southerly winds are once again ongoing this afternoon. Radar is quiet at the moment however, short term guidance depicts isolated cells should begin to fire off along a line from northeast LA to near Houston over the next couple of hours. These storms are eventually expected to move south and east, as the aforementioned cold front makes its way into the forecast area this evening.
Isolated/scattered showers and storms should continue past sunset, but will likely then gradually die off as we approach midnight.

A bulk of the forecast area including the majority of SE TX, central LA, and parts of SW LA including Lake Charles are outlined in today's Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather, with all modes of severe weather being possible. This threat will peak from the late afternoon through sunset, gradually diminishing thereafter. Although guidance is rather meager on convection coverage today severe parameters are decent today, with 3190 J/kg of CAPE present on the 18Z LCH sounding, so these discrete cells should have plenty to work with.

Overnight into tomorrow, the cool front will push through the forecast area and a drier airmass will filter down into the region in its wake. While highs will continue to warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s Wed and Thurs, drier air will make for more pleasant conditions, with min RH values bottoming in the upper 20s to mid 40s tomorrow afternoon, and in the mid 30s to low 50s on Thurs.
While most of the region can expect dry weather tomorrow, the exception will be lower Acadiana, where drier air will be slow to filter down and moisture will linger, likely resulting in some very isolated showers through tomorrow morning.

17

LONG TERM
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Friday morning brings more seasonal and dry weather, with a slow return of moisture on tap throughout the afternoon as winds return to the south. Highs top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s once again, while dewpoints slowly climb through the afternoon and overnight period.

A warm front lifts across the region early Saturday, opening the door for quicker/more significant moisture return through the weekend. Warm and humid conditions, with no precip, can be expected for Saturday, while the later half of the weekend into early next week brings a return of showers and thunderstorms.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely for Sunday, while Monday and Tuesday bring more widespread activity. In addition, widespread convection and mostly cloudy skies will bring cooler temps for Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s on tap.

17

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

A frontal system across east Texas and central Louisiana will continue to gradually move south toward the coast tonight.
Scattered showers and a few storms will be possible as the front slides south into Acadiana, and will mention VCSH at KLFT/KARA through daybreak.

Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will be possible at more southern terminals until the front passes through, then northerly winds and drier air will lift ceilings to VFR levels.

The front will hang up around the coast by daybreak into Wednesday. For now will leave any mention of showers out of the terminals, however some guidance is suggesting activity during the morning hours between I-10 and the coast that could affect the KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA terminals. Otherwise, expect wind to become more easterly during the day at around 10 knots with VFR conditions.

Rua

MARINE
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Overnight a cold front will move across the region bringing isolated showers and a few thunderstorms. Winds briefly turn north after midnight and then eventually easterly to southeasterly tomorrow afternoon/night. By Thursday PM onshore flow becomes well established and continues through the weekend into early next

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 63 89 64 92 / 40 0 0 0 LCH 70 90 70 91 / 10 10 0 0 LFT 72 90 71 91 / 20 20 0 10 BPT 70 91 72 92 / 20 10 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.