Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
World Golf Village, FL

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 8:01PM Friday August 23, 2019 6:00 PM EDT (22:00 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:01PM Illumination 41% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Expires:201908240415;;098707 Fzus52 Kjax 232010 Cwfjax Coastal Waters Forecast For Northeast Florida/southeast Georgia National Weather Service Jacksonville Fl 410 Pm Edt Fri Aug 23 2019 Atlantic Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Amz450-452-454-240415- Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 410 Pm Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
Tonight..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Northeast winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..North winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..North winds 15 knots, becoming east northeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday night..South winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South southwest winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 410 Pm Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
Synopsis.. An organizing tropical low pressure center along the southeast florida coast will pivot northeastward by late Saturday and will then accelerate northeastward along the gulf stream waters on Sunday as the system strengthens. Easterly winds will strengthen on Saturday and will shift to northeasterly on Sunday and then northerly by Sunday night as this developing cyclone moves east of our offshore waters. Meanwhile, strengthening high pressure over new england will drive a cold front southward over the georgia waters by Sunday morning, with this boundary then stalling near the florida border by late Sunday and Monday. Atlantic ridging will then build over the florida peninsula early next week, resulting in light prevailing southwest winds beginning on Monday night.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of aug 22, 2019 at 1200 utc... 61 nautical miles east southeast of flagler beach. 72 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 84 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 92 nautical miles east of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near World Golf Village, FL
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location: 29.86, -81.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 232122
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
522 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019

Developing tropical low pressure expected to remain offshore
late this weekend...

Breezy onshore winds with an elevated rip current risk at area
beaches...

Currently
Late afternoon surface analysis depicts developing tropical low
pressure (1013 millibars), labeled as invest 98l, situated along
the southeast fl coast. Meanwhile, strong and cool high pressure
(1028 millibars) building southward from canada into the northern
great lakes region was pushing a summertime cold front southward
through the mid-atlantic states and the tennessee valley.

Aloft... Deep-layered atlantic ridging centered east of the
bahamas is extending its axis across our region as a potent
shortwave trough digs southward across the eastern great lakes.

Latest goes-east derived total precipitable water vapor imagery
depicts below average pwats for late august (1.5 to 1.7 inches)
persisting over much of our region, while values closer to late
august climatology are in place along the interstate 4 corridor in
central fl and also over the far western suwannee valley and near
the altamaha ocmulgee rivers. An outer convective band associated
with strengthening convergence on the northern periphery of 98l's
circulation moved onshore into flagler county earlier this
afternoon and has since weakened as it encounters a dry and
subsident air mass that persists over our region. Isolated and
mostly transient, low-topped convection is also developing over
the western suwannee valley and near the altamaha ocmulgee rivers
where higher pwat values prevail. Ridging aloft again allowed
highs to soar to the low and mid 90s at inland locations, with the
afternoon sea breeze cooling temperatures back to the upper 80s
at coastal locations. The persistently dry air mass in place over
our region again resulted in dewpoints mixing down to the mid and
upper 60s inland, while values in the mid and upper 70s are found
at coastal locations, where breezy onshore winds prevailed.

Near term (this evening through Saturday)
Invest 98l is expected to meander across south fl overnight and
will gradually pivot northeastward over the fl treasure coast to
the south of CAPE canaveral by Saturday evening. Convergence
overnight will remain strongest over the atlantic coastal waters,
with a gradually tightening pressure gradient possibly driving a
few showers onshore towards the predawn and early morning.

Otherwise, isolated evening convection over the western suwannee
valley and inland southeast ga will quickly fade by sunset, with
patches of locally dense fog again possible overnight at inland
locations as strong subsidence prevails. Fair skies will prevail
through the evening and overnight hours, with increasing cumulus
coverage advecting westward towards coastal locations by the
predawn hours. Onshore winds will keep lows in the upper 70s at
area beaches, with low to mid 70s expected elsewhere.

Our local pressure gradient will continue to gradually tighten on
Saturday, resulting in breezy onshore winds developing at coastal
locations by early afternoon, where highs will reach the upper
80s. The ribbon of dry and subsident air will be slow to erode on
Saturday as 98l meanders over south fl, but strengthening
convergence should develop a few bands of low-topped convection
initially along the i-95 corridor by early afternoon, with this
activity spreading westward by late afternoon. Deeper tropical
moisture will arrive over north central fl by late afternoon,
where a few rounds of tropical downpours are expected on Saturday
and likely pops were placed in the forecast grids. Widely
scattered convection will likely not develop until the late
afternoon hours over inland portions of southeast ga, where highs
will again soar to the mid 90s and heat index values will MAX out
in the 100-105 range. Highs elsewhere for inland northeast and
north central fl should climb to the lower 90s before convection
and cloud cover increase during the mid to late afternoon hours.

Short term (Saturday night through Monday night)
Invest 98l will pivot northeastward and will begin to gradually
accelerate over the gulf stream waters adjacent to east central fl
by late Saturday night. Meanwhile, strengthening and cool high
pressure over northern new england will continue to push a
summertime cold front through ga, with this boundary approaching
the altamaha river on Sunday morning and then stalling near the
fl ga border by Sunday evening. Breezy onshore winds will keep a
threat of widely scattered coastal showers in place on Saturday
night and Sunday morning for locations along and east of i-95,
while convection associated with the approaching cold front
potentially lingers or redevelops on Saturday night for locations
north of alma in southeast ga. Lows Saturday night will range from
the mid 70s inland to around 80 at coastal locations.

Invest 98l will likely intensify on Sunday as it accelerates
northeastward along the gulf stream waters off the southeast u.S.

Coast, keeping breezy north-northeast winds in place at coastal
locations through Monday. Convective coverage should increase from
north to south on Sunday and Sunday evening as the cold front
drops southward and deeper moisture continues to pool along this
boundary. Categorical pops were placed in the forecast grids on
Sunday afternoon for much of inland southeast ga, with likely pops
for inland northeast and north central fl. Highs on Sunday will
likely cool back towards late august climo, with upper 80s to
lower 90s for most locations. Convection should return to a mostly
diurnal pattern early next week despite the presence of the
stalled frontal boundary, with numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected nearly area-wide on Monday afternoon and evening. Model
soundings continue to indicate mild mid-level temperatures
throughout our region this weekend and early next week, so
convection will require mesoscale boundary collisions or cell
mergers in order to pulse and possibly produce wet microbursts.

Temperatures on Monday will again remain near climo with
increased convective coverage throughout our area.

Long term (Tuesday through Friday night)
Shortwave troughing currently positioned over the northern
rockies will progress southeastward this weekend and will then
pivot eastward by Monday as it reaches the tennessee valley. This
feature will likely steer a strengthening invest 98l northward,
but this tropical cyclone should remain well to the east of new
england by late next week. Southwesterly flow will deepen
somewhat locally in advance of this trough, and deep tropical
moisture will continue to pool along a stalled frontal boundary
that should remain near the fl ga border, resulting in numerous
showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

Convection may develop by the late morning hours at inland
locations, which should keep highs near late august climo, with
upper 80s to lower 90s forecast for most locations. Lows should
remain in the 70s inland to around 80 at area beaches. A drier air
mass may begin to advect into southeast georgia by Thursday as
weak high pressure builds into the southeastern states in the wake
of the dissipating frontal boundary. Model blends keep scattered
diurnal convection over northeast and north central fl late in the
week, as the frontal boundary will likely remain stalled along the
fl ga border.

Aviation
Vfr conditions this afternoon and evening with low level cloud
bases now above 3.5 kft thanks to daytime heating. East coast sea
breeze was inland of ssi, crg and sgj where easterly winds of 8-12
kts are expected through early evening. Low chance of late
afternoon or early evening shower near gnv, but confidence very
low so continued to refrain for inclusion in the taf. Winds will
relax at the coast after sunset and back ssw as land breeze
develops overnight < 5 kts with winds going near calm inland.

Clouds will rotate northward around the south fl low, bringing an
increased potential for brief MVFR ceilings and a shower near sgj
fri morning. Pre-dawn low stratus and shallow ground fog possible
at inland terminals and based MVFR to ifr restrictions on
persistence at vqq and jax.

Marine
An organizing tropical low pressure center along the southeast
florida coast will pivot northeastward by late Saturday and will
then accelerate northeastward along the gulf stream waters on
Sunday as the system strengthens. Easterly winds will strengthen
on Saturday as our local pressure gradient tightens, with winds
then shifting to northeasterly on Sunday and northerly by Sunday
night as this developing cyclone moves east of our offshore
waters. Winds and seas should remain just below caution levels
offshore, where 3-5 foot seas will prevail this weekend through
early next week. Meanwhile, strengthening high pressure over new
england will drive a cold front southward over the georgia waters
by Sunday morning, with this boundary then stalling near the
florida border by late Sunday and Monday. Our local pressure
gradient will loosen quickly by late Monday, with light prevailing
southwesterly winds expected through midweek as atlantic ridging
builds across the florida peninsula. Seas will subside to 2-4 feet
offshore by early Tuesday.

Rip currents: moderate risk expected throughout the weekend and
into early next week as onshore winds become breezy this weekend
and then shift to northerly by Monday.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 73 93 74 89 20 40 30 80
ssi 78 88 79 88 20 30 30 50
jax 74 93 75 91 20 30 20 60
sgj 77 88 78 89 30 40 30 50
gnv 73 91 73 92 10 50 10 70
ocf 73 91 74 92 10 60 20 60

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... None.

Nelson enyedi bricker


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 15 mi60 min E 7 G 8 81°F 84°F1015.6 hPa (-1.5)
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 22 mi75 min ENE 7 83°F 1017 hPa83°F
41117 27 mi30 min 83°F2 ft
JXUF1 34 mi42 min 86°F
DMSF1 36 mi42 min 85°F
LTJF1 36 mi42 min 87°F
BLIF1 37 mi42 min E 8.9 G 12 88°F 1016.5 hPa77°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 38 mi42 min E 8.9 G 12 85°F 82°F1016 hPa
NFDF1 38 mi42 min E 9.9 G 12 86°F 1017.3 hPa

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Northeast Florida Regional Airport, FL14 mi64 minENE 1010.00 miFair87°F78°F75%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSGJ

Wind History from SGJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9E10SE9E9------Calm--Calm----CalmCalmCalm--NE6NE8NE9NE10NE10NE10NE11NE10
1 day agoE10SE10SE7SE7SE6--SE5----CalmCalm--Calm----W43W4E10E9E10E13E11E10
2 days ago--E6SE4SE3SE3----------SW3--CalmCalm--------SE8SE9E11E9--E12

Tide / Current Tables for East Tocoi, St. Johns River, Florida (4)
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East Tocoi
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Fri -- 12:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:03 AM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:10 AM EDT     0.91 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 02:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:15 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:48 PM EDT     1.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.70.60.60.60.70.80.90.90.90.80.80.70.50.50.40.40.50.70.91110.9

Tide / Current Tables for Palmetto Bluff, St. Johns River, Florida (6)
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Palmetto Bluff
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:20 AM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:37 AM EDT     1.04 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 02:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:32 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:15 PM EDT     1.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.80.70.60.60.70.80.91110.90.80.60.50.40.40.50.70.91.11.11.11.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.