Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Panacea, FL

SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(Today through next Saturday)
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

The Bermuda ridge becomes established and strengthens into mid week. Southeasterly flow will become entrenched through the southeast states through the week into next weekend. This will keep the train of moisture going with PWATs increasing through the period (1.3-1.7 inches; lower end Monday and Tuesday when rain chances are mainly slight chance). Today, models are in good agreement that the east coast seabreeze will be active beginning this afternoon with convection developing along the I-75 corridor then moving westward. Point soundings show a few inverted-V soundings in the eastern Florida Big Bend with CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and DCAPE of 1000-1300 J/kg northward into southern Georgia.
A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible and the main concerns with the storms will be strong to damaging winds (40-60 mph), small hail, and locally heavy rainfall with slow storm motions. SPC added a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms in this region for today and tonight. Monday and Tuesday any convection that does develop appears to be from the GCSB in the eastern Florida panhandle and any convection creeping towards the I- 75 corridor and eastern Big Bend in the late afternoon from the ECSB.

Mid-late week into next Saturday, a cold front moves through the midwest and mid south and into the Tennessee Valley then turns stationary as it encounters the Bermuda ridge. This will hold the front to the north and west and shunt the supporting upper low well into Canada. Better rain chances during this time frame will be positioned around the tri-state region (the cold front and the ECSB will be the primary focus mechanisms with the GCSB a lesser extent). Rain chances will be on the order of 20-40% though an increase in these chances may occur depending on if the front gets a little closer or the blocking pattern isn't as strong as advertised.

Highs will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A few locales hit 90+ degrees on Saturday and I reckon a few more locations will be added to that list over the next few days.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail outside brief MVFR/IFR conditions in any thunderstorm activity that develops today. Most TSRA should affect VLD/ABY but some low probabilities exist at TLH/ECP. Any activity that develops will likely be from 19z to 00z. Light easterly winds move in overnight for most TAF sites with VFR conditions likely prevailing overnight, but patchy fog can't be ruled out. However, confidence was too low at any site to warrant mention in the TAFs.

MARINE
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue through the week with high pressure off the southeast United States. A slight uptick in winds will occur in the overnight hours each night as easterly surges work offshore but should remain below cautionary thresholds.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

A ridge of high pressure will be in place through the upcoming week.
Southeasterly flow will keep moisture flowing into the area with afternoon humidities in the 40-50% range. High mixing heights and breezy transport winds will lead to high dispersions through Monday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms generally favor the I-75 corridor today with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall as the main concerns. The Gulf Coast seabreeze will also generate isolated showers and thunderstorms into this week favoring the eastern Florida panhandle.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Rainfall today east of the Flint and Apalachicola rivers east to I-75 will range between 0.25-0.5 inches with locally heavy rainfall in excess of 1 inch in slower moving or training of storms. Monday and Tuesday drier air works back into the region with perhaps a few storms in the Florida panhandle. Mid to late week a front moves into the southeast but will stay north and west of the region. Therefore, heavier rainfall amounts will also remain west of the tri-state region. Generally, less than 0.5 inches expected rainfall Wednesday through Saturday.

Extreme to exceptional drought continues across the area as long- term rainfall deficits and low streamflows continue. For more information on local drought impacts, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 69 91 69 92 / 10 10 0 10 Panama City 71 86 70 86 / 0 20 0 10 Dothan 66 89 67 89 / 10 30 10 10 Albany 67 89 66 90 / 30 0 0 0 Valdosta 67 91 66 92 / 40 0 0 10 Cross City 67 94 68 94 / 20 10 0 20 Apalachicola 73 83 73 83 / 0 10 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.