Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Panacea, FL

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 238 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

The upper level low which has brought a lot of unsettled weather to the region will finally begin to move eastward today. Given our proximity to the system and sufficient moisture and instability, we are still expecting isolated showers and thunderstorms to dot the landscape this afternoon with rain chances mainly 20-30 percent. The greatest chances for precip across the region will be in the afternoon and removed from coastal regions. Isolated convection will quickly diminish around sunset this evening. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows in the mid 60s.

SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 238 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

The upper level trough from this past weekend has lifted north of the region and upper level ridging is beginning to build in from the west as a surface high spreads over the Gulf. The beginning of benign conditions will continue through the rest of the week; however, there is a minimal chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop Wednesday afternoon for our northern tier of counties in Georgia. CAPE and shear are present for thunderstorms to develop but, the limiting factors are moisture and lift. If storms develop, they could produce gusty winds and hail. PoPs for Wednesday are around 10% and less.

Temperatures are expected to warm into the 90s with morning lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Rain chances will be minimal as the high pressure ridge remains steady over the region. As temperatures climb, our dew points will range from the 60s to around 70 degrees putting the relative humidity in the 40s percent. This will allow the heat index to reach the upper 90s and nearly 100 degrees in some inland locations by this weekend, as the sea breeze will be disrupted by westerly mid-level winds. A slight chance for showers and thunderstorms returns this weekend for areas north of I- 10 as shortwaves move along the upper-level pattern.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

Included a TEMPO group at VLD around sunrise with fog reducing vsby to 4 SM, otherwise VFR at the remainder of the terminals.
Southwest winds 5-10G15KT decrease to AOB 5 kts around sunset.

MARINE
Issued at 238 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

High pressure centered southeast of the waters will continue a prolonged period of southwest flow, which will be enhanced during the daytime hours near the coast due to the seabreeze. Seas remain elevated between 2 and 4 feet just offshore and especially near the inlets during the outgoing tide, with more tranquil seas possible by Friday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 238 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

Given the recent widespread rainfall, there are minimal fire weather concerns over the next few days other than pockets of high dispersions.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 238 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

After several inches have fallen over the past several days, we will finally enter a period with no significant rainfall expected.
With all the rain we've had, a few rivers have risen and are expected to crest into Action stage; such as the Choctawhatchee at Caryville, Shoal at Mossy Head, and Kinchafoonee Creek at Preston. However, no flooding is expected.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 84 64 89 68 / 10 0 0 0 Panama City 80 70 82 72 / 20 0 0 0 Dothan 82 64 87 67 / 10 0 0 0 Albany 83 64 89 67 / 10 10 10 0 Valdosta 84 65 90 67 / 20 10 0 0 Cross City 82 66 86 65 / 20 10 0 0 Apalachicola 80 70 81 72 / 20 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GMZ735.