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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 338 Am Cst Mon Dec 4 2023
Today..West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots late this morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet.
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.

GMZ500 338 Am Cst Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
high pressure will continue to build into the area today and tomorrow with light northerly winds expected. A reinforcing cold front will sweep through the waters Tuesday night, and this will push northerly winds up into exercise caution range of 15 to 20 knots from late Tuesday night through Thursday morning. Winds will then relax back to around 10 to 15 knots and shift to the east and then southeast Thursday afternoon as high pressure passes to the north. By Friday, the high will be east of the waters and a moderate onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots is expected.

FXUS64 KLIX 040934 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 334 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 244 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

A broad longwave trough axis over the eastern third of the CONUS will be the primary feature impacting the forecast area through Wednesday. Initially, a more zonal flow regime in the mid and upper levels will be in place today and tomorrow. Pacific based moisture will continue to feed into the region on the back of the westerly flow, and this will keep a scattered to broken cirrus deck in place through tomorrow. At the surface, high pressure building in from the north and west will keep a light northerly flow in place. Conditions will remain very dry in the low levels of the atmosphere due to this ridging. The cirrus deck will inhibit radiational cooling tonight, and have stuck with the deterministic NBM output for temperatures as it is on the upper end of the model solutions for overnight lows. Temperatures will be near average with highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

A reinforcing shortwave trough axis and associated front will sweep through the region Tuesday night, and this will drive a cooler airmass into the area. The front will also serve to clear out any linger high level cloud cover as winds shift to the northwest in the mid and upper levels. Temperatures Tuesday night will be about the same as seen tonight, and this will be due to increased gradient flow keeping the boundary layer thermally mixed. However, the cooler air moving will push daytime highs down into the upper 50s on Wednesday. By Wednesday night, lighter winds and clear skies will allow for stronger radiational cooling to occur. Lows should dip into the lower to middle 30s over inland areas and the lower 40s on the Southshore and the immediate coast.
Once again, the NBM deterministic output was in the ballpark and have stuck with that.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 244 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

A shortwave ridge axis will be pushing across the area on Thursday and this will keep a highly subsident airmass with clear skies and low humidity in place. The thermal trough axis will also begin to pull to the east as winds begin to shift to a more onshore component in the afternoon hours on the southwest periphery of the departing surface high. This will allow for slightly warmer temperatures in the low to mid 60s Thursday afternoon. The onshore flow will gradually usher in more Gulf moisture and this will keep lows a good 10 degrees warmer on Thursday night with readings generally falling into the 40s and lower 50s. Once again, these values are in line with the deterministic NBM.

Friday will see onshore flow increase in the low levels and a more southwesterly flow regime develop in the mid and upper levels. A weak shortwave embedded within this southwest flow will pass through the northern Gulf, but a lack of instability and deeper moisture will prohibit much more than some cloud development from occurring on the Gulf coast. Temperatures will continue to modify with highs climbing into the upper 60s and lower 70s. These values are around 5 degrees above average for this time of year. The warmer values will translate into Friday night with lows only dipping into the upper 50s and lower 60s. As has been the case through the forecast period, have largely stuck with NBM deterministic values for the temperature forecast.

Conditions still look to be unsettled as we head into Saturday and Sunday as a strong northern stream trough digs into the Plains and then sweeps through the Deep South. In advance of this trough on Saturday, a surge of deeper moisture will feed into the area as onshore flow continues to intensify. This moisture surge will push precipitable water values up to around 1.5 inches which is well above normal for this time of year. Increasingly difluent flow aloft will support greater deep layer forcing, and expect to see scattered showers and a few thunderstorms develop as temperatures warm into the mid 70s. This convective activity will persist into Saturday night as the parent trough axis and an attendant cold front slide through the area. Have included likely PoP of 60 to 70 percent in the forecast from Saturday afternoon through Saturday night to reflect this convective risk. Additionally, there are some indications that a few strong to severe storms could develop, but this will be highly dependent on the amount of instability and shear that accompanies the system. Later forecasts will have a better handle on the severe potential with this next system.

By Sunday, strong negative vorticity and cold air advection will take hold of the region in the wake of the passing trough axis.
Strong northwest flow will develop over the area, and temperatures will be a good 15 degrees cooler with highs only warming into the upper 50s. The strong subsidence moving in with the departure of the trough axis will also rapidly clear skies out on Sunday.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 244 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

VFR conditions will be the rule at all of the terminals through the end of the forecast period as a dry and stable airmass dominates the region.

MARINE
Issued at 244 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

A surface high building over the waters from the north and west will keep northerly winds in place through tomorrow. As the high becomes more centered over the region, these winds will begin to decrease to around 5 to 10 knots by tomorrow. However, a reinforcing cold front will sweep through the waters tomorrow night, and this will push winds into exercise caution range of 15 to 20 knots from late Tuesday night through Thursday morning. The wind field will relax a bit on Thursday as high pressure passes to the north of the waters, and winds will also shift to the east and then southeast over this period. A fairly persistent onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots will then take hold on Friday and continue into Saturday in advance of another low pressure system moving into the Plains.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 65 37 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 66 42 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 67 40 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 67 49 63 48 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 68 43 64 43 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 68 40 64 41 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Paris Road Bridge
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Mon -- 06:40 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:44 AM CST     0.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:16 PM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:59 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:48 PM CST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:43 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:51 PM CST     Last Quarter
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Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Shell Beach
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Mon -- 05:57 AM CST     1.13 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:38 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:15 PM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:58 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:50 PM CST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:42 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:51 PM CST     Last Quarter
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Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana, Tide feet

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