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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 324 Am Cdt Sat Sep 23 2023
Today..East winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast late. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less, then 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Monday..North winds around 5 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 324 Am Cdt Sat Sep 23 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
benign conditions are generally expected across the coastal waters outside of any impacts from Thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered showers and Thunderstorms are expected each day, mainly across the open gulf waters, with the best chances Monday and beyond.

FXUS64 KLIX 230818 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 318 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Tropical Storm Ophelia near the Carolina coast early this morning.
Upper ridging over northern Mexico with strong shortwaves over Wyoming and just off the Washington coast. A shortwave was moving off the southeast Louisiana coast early this morning as well. At the surface, an old frontal boundary appears to be near Interstate 10. Mid and high clouds, the remnants of earlier convection to our northwest were moving southeast across the area early this morning. Early morning temperatures were generally in the 70s across the area.

The shortwave over Wyoming this morning will move to Minnesota on Sunday, while the shortwave moving off the Louisiana coast this morning will try to close off a weak mid level circulation near the Yucatan Sunday. Forecast soundings indicate some drying will occur across western portions of the area today as compared to Friday afternoon, and only starting to recover late Sunday afternoon. Expect that any precipitation today or Sunday should remain fairly isolated, with the possible exception of the far lower portions of the Atchafalaya River Basin this afternoon...and even there, probably not much more than 30 percent.

NBM high temperatures seem to be doing fairly well, even though the global MOS guidance is a few degrees lower in many cases.
Don't see much reason to track very far from low temperature guidance either.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

The troughing over Wyoming this morning that moves into Minnesota tomorrow may not have as much of an impact on the area as earlier thought. Both the GFS and ECMWF operational runs keep that system over the Upper Mississippi River Valley through at least mid week before shifting it eastward across the Great Lakes. While a reinforcement of the current stationary boundary is expected, a clean frontal passage looks like it may not happen, or if it does, it may be as late as Wednesday or Thursday. If there's going to be anything more than isolated precipitation, it would probably be on Monday, and mainly to the north of Interstate 10. Beyond that point, the NBM PoPs and temperatures are much closer to the drier/warmer GFS based numbers. Considering the sparsity of rainfall over the past couple months, don't see a whole lot of reason to fight those trends.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Have convective blowoff from SH/TS west of the I-55 corridor but VCs are not warranted for nearby terminals for this package. VFR conditions with generally light easterly winds will prevail through the period. Could see inclusion of VCs at BTR, MCB, HDC, or HUM this afternoon but chances of impacts to terminals are too marginal to include at this range.

MARINE
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Don't see much reason to expect large changes from previous trends/forecasts. Areal coverage of overnight convection over the open waters may increase a bit beyond Monday, but outside of thunderstorms, winds are likely to remain below 15 knots and seas not much more than 2-3 feet.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 93 68 94 69 / 10 0 10 10 BTR 95 73 95 74 / 20 10 20 10 ASD 91 71 92 70 / 20 0 10 0 MSY 91 75 92 75 / 20 0 10 0 GPT 89 71 89 72 / 10 0 10 0 PQL 91 66 93 67 / 10 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Paris Road Bridge
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Sat -- 12:01 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:48 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:14 AM CDT     1.66 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:03 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:55 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:04 PM CDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Shell Beach
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Sat -- 12:01 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:27 AM CDT     1.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:02 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:54 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:06 PM CDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana, Tide feet

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