Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 7:35 PM Moonrise 9:34 PM   Moonset 6:49 AM

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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 227 Pm Cdt Fri Apr 26 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday morning - .
Tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Saturday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Saturday night - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves 4 to 5 feet. Sunday - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 5 feet. Sunday night - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Monday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots, diminishing to around 10 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 227 Pm Cdt Fri Apr 26 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
with high pressure well to our northeast and a deepening surface low along the lee side of the rockies is helping build winds across the local waters. A second surface low will develop Saturday and deepen as it moves across the plains and into the upper mississippi valley on Sunday. Additionally, the high over the western portions of the atlantic will slide south and become centered east of the carolinas. This should maintain or even strengthen the gradient across the area leading to additional strong southerly winds. This alone will keep small craft advisory conditions in place through the weekend. Furthermore, the prolonged or persistent southeast or southerly flow will produce a large fetch across the gulf with seas likely higher than typical as a swell begins to develop. It will also lead to some minor coastal flooding concerns.

FXUS64 KLIX 261923 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 223 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Gusty winds reside across the region this afternoon as a strong onshore flow has developed between a low (or what will be a series of lows across the plains this weekend) and high pressure over the western portions of the Atlantic. This will keep pushing warmer and more moist flow across the region. Within this rich flow, think globals and some meso models may be picking up on some very low topped streamer showers at times this weekend. But with the isolated and light nature most will remain dry. A silent 10 once again applied. Breezy conditions will remain through the short term period, but at this juncture should remain below advisory criteria.

A cold front should stall upstream as the front begins to become parallel to the mean flow. However, at this point the location seems to be just too far for an appreciable uptick in rain chances for our region. Temps remain above average with most locations today and Saturday warming into the middle and upper 80s...especially away from the coast. (Frye)



LONG TERM
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Going into the start of the new week, another fairly robust H5 short wave will finally grab the front and bring it closer to our CWFA, especially Monday and into Tuesday. However, the feature moves downstream pretty rapidly and again the front becomes parallel to the mean flow and slows to a stop. The front begins to become more east to west oriented in time as a more progressive zonal flow develops with very little to push it along at least a southward push. Tuesday and into Wednesday ridging begins to take shape across our CWFA and the lower MS River Valley, which may push the surface front further away (to the north) and eventually limiting it's influence on POPs/QPF across our region. Globals never bring the front through bust just close enough to keep rain chances areawide Monday and Tuesday. Best rain chances look to be northwest tier parishes/counties with perhaps two waves of rainfall/convection. With very lackluster upper levels, no optimistic there will be much if any severe weather support...at least looking at synoptically favorable within this range. (Frye)



AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Mostly VFR conditions anticipated this afternoon and into early evening. GPT has had stubborn low stratus this morning, but that will likely break a bit in time. Most terminals overnight will drop with stratus build down/low stratus similar to this morning.
This cloudiness will scatter and lift in time once again leading to VFR conditions to finish up the cycle. Winds will also be a concern with gusty/moderate southerly winds for all terminals.
Winds overnight may become less gusty, but shortly after sunrise on Saturday, expect gusts to pick back up. (Frye)

MARINE
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Southerly onshore flow will continue to gradually strengthen tonight and into the upcoming weekend. With surface low pressure upstream and surface high over the western Atlantic not really budging through the weekend, the pressure gradient will promote moderate and potentially hazardous winds and seas. Seas will also build with a developing swell as a prolonged southerly fetch develops. This may also cause minor flooding as water gradually piles up against the MS Gulf Coast and tidal lake areas. SCA headlines are up through the weekend and may need to be extended if the surface pattern doesn't evolve going into early next week.
(Frye)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 65 84 63 83 / 0 10 0 10 BTR 70 88 69 88 / 0 0 0 10 ASD 68 84 67 83 / 0 10 0 10 MSY 71 84 70 84 / 0 10 0 10 GPT 69 81 68 80 / 0 10 0 10 PQL 66 83 66 82 / 0 10 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ058-070-076-078-080-082-084.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-555-557-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ550-552-570- 572.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-555-557-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ552-570-572.

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Paris Road Bridge
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Fri -- 03:56 AM CDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:20 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:48 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:39 PM CDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:34 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:32 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Shell Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:58 AM CDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:20 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:48 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:52 PM CDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:33 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:31 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana, Tide feet

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