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GMZ435 Vermilion And West Cote Blanche Bays- 325 Pm Cst Tue Nov 28 2023
Tonight..Northeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots. Bay waters rough. Showers likely in the morning, then showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Bay waters very rough. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming north after midnight. Bay waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..North winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Saturday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Bay waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..North winds around 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Bay waters light chop. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. A chance of showers.
Sunday night..Southwest winds around 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Bay waters light chop. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 325 Pm Cst Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis..
high pressure settling overhead will maintain a mostly light to occasionally moderate offshore flow into early Wednesday. By later in the day, the high is expected to have slid farther eastward, allowing winds to turn east and eventually southeast. Around that same time, winds will strengthen as lower pressures over the plains state tighten the gradient over the coastal waters...and another period of small craft advisory conditions are expected. Meanwhile, elevated rain chances return to the forecast with scattered to widespread convection expected to persist through the latter half of the week and into the weekend.

FXUS64 KLCH 282130 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 330 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 330 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows the area under the influence of high pressure currently centered over the ArkLaMiss which is allowing for a mainly light nerly low-level flow. Water vapor imagery shows troffing over the ern CONUS which is providing a nwrly mid/upper-level flow over the region. Meanwhile, a shortwave upstream over far wrn TX and the Desert Southwest is accompanied by a slug of deeper moisture. Visible imagery/sfc obs show skies have cleared over the forecast area. Observations also show seasonal temps in the 60s this afternoon. Regional 88Ds are PPINE.

Days 1 & 2 of the short term are pretty straight forward...dry, but with a change in the general pattern over the region. The ern CONUS trof is progged to gradually shift farther ewd, with the nwrly flow aloft getting replaced by a more wrly flow. Meanwhile, the sfc high is likewise expected to push ewd, allowing for a low-level return flow to set up through Wednesday. Skies should remain generally clear through tonight before cloud cover begins to encroach from the west tomorrow. Under decent radiating conditions, lows tonight are forecast to range from the lower 30s far nern zones to lower 40s along the I-10 corridor from KLCH west to KBMT (as usual, warmer near the coast). The chilly temps combined with nearly calm winds should allow for some frost formation over the nern 1/2 of the forecast area prior to daybreak and this is being handled by appropriate verbiage in the zones. In addition, with a pair of freezes now in the books for the season for that area, will allow the lower 30s temps to pass without any freeze warning issuance.
Wednesday temps look similar to today with seasonal 60s, although low-level moisture/RH values will run a little higher with the onset of the srly flow off the Gulf.

Of course the main story in the short term is the rainfall/possibly severe event for Thursday. As we move through Wednesday night, a strong disturbance crossing the srn Plains along with a deepening onshore flow will allow for rapid remoistening of the area airmass, with forecast soundings advertising mean RH values to 90 percent and PWAT values climbing to 1.4 inches by daybreak Thursday. As lift from the disturbance begins spreading over the region, widespread shower activity with a possible thunderstorm or two are expected to begin spreading into our TX zones, with showers possible across much of our LA area. With moisture further increasing during the day on Thursday (PWATs forecast to exceed the 90th percentile per SPC climo) while a warm front encroaches from the Gulf, rain chances and expected QPF amounts will increase across the entire area. Strong winds expected to develop from the sfc up through at least 700 millibars (potentially 50+ knots h8 to h7), especially over sern TX, along with reasonable lapse rates and shear could spell severe storms, mainly during the afternoon with heating/destabilization.
Thus, SPC has included all of our TX zones along with portions of our border/coastal parishes in a slight risk for Thursday/Thursday night, while the remainder of the forecast area is in a marginal risk. Interestingly, as has been the norm with recent systems, most guidance is advertising lesser QPFs with this system than they have over recent days...however, due to the still high moisture content and potentially heavy rains with this system, WPC has maintained a marginal risk for excessive rain for the entire area for Thursday/Thursday night.

LONG TERM
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

A dreary and unsettled pattern is expected to begin the long term at the end of the week.

The initial upper trough that will deliver higher rain chances in the short term will have shifted over the local area during Friday.
This will allow the bulk of the weather to be over the eastern half of the forecast area or exiting the area to the east to start the long term, however showers and perhaps a few thunderstorm may still be streaming across the region through mid day Friday into the afternoon.

The subtropical jet will remain active through the weekend with another short wave affecting the region. The break in the rainfall will be short lived as moisture will again be lifted into the area Friday night. The highest rain chances will be found along the coast and across Acadiana.

Rain chances will finally decrease into early next week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

VFR conditions are expected through the period per forecast soundings/time-height sections. Winds will remain slightly elevated through this afternoon, then decouple around sunset while gradually veering. After a shift to a more erly/serly direction by Wednesday morning as sfc high pressure slides east, winds will increase again as lower pressures develop over the wrn Gulf, somewhat tightening the gradient.

MARINE
Issued at 330 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Winds on the coastal waters, especially the wrn/cntl waters, will begin increasing Wednesday night as high pressure moves well east of the region and lower pressures begin developing over the srn Plains
SCA conditions seem fairly certain through Thursday
will have to watch for potential gale conditions as gusts to criteria look to be highly probable. Offshore flow behind the late week frontal passage doesn't appear at this time to be all that strong, with winds likely to remain below even caution criteria.

25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 32 65 43 66 / 0 0 40 90 LCH 40 65 51 69 / 0 0 50 90 LFT 39 66 49 71 / 0 0 20 80 BPT 44 67 56 73 / 0 0 50 90

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Weeks Bay
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Tue -- 06:42 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:05 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 12:49 PM CST     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:07 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:10 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:01 PM CST     1.78 feet High Tide
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Weeks Bay, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet

Cote Blanche Island
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Tue -- 06:42 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:05 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 12:33 PM CST     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:07 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:09 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:36 PM CST     1.66 feet High Tide
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Cote Blanche Island, West Cote Blanche Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet

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