Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Iberia, LA

DISCUSSION
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

A stalled stationary front offshore will serve as a broader convergence zone for moistures inland extending northward to the ARKLATEX region today. Upper level analysis shows a river of Pacific moisture feeding across the CWA and into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile weak sfc-800mb flow off the Gulf has saturated the lower column leading to observed PWATs of in excess of 2.00" per 09th/00Z LCH sounding. Cells developing across the area have shown the capacity to take hold of the elevated convection leading to ongoing hail and wind threat as noted by the Marginal(Level 1 out of 5) severe outlook by the SPC. Separately, flash flood concerns will remain throughout the day with a Marginal to Slight(Level 2 out of 4) per recent excessive rainfall outlook from WPC. While short term convection guidance has waffled quite a bit, one bit of agreement is the illustration of higher precipitation amounts toward the I-49 corridor and east ward- hence the Slight ERO risk along east central LA and Acadiana.

With flash flood guidance lower after multiple rounds of precipitation combined with atmosphere's shown ability to realize those high PWATs amid elevated instability, instances of flash flooding will be the main concern today. Outside of showers/storms, conditions will be mostly cloudy and muggy. Upper level flow is quite chaotic across the Southern Plains having multiple embedded perturbations within the shortwave extending over the region. Apart from scattered activity, an additional MCS like feature or clustered mass of convective showers/storms can be expected overnight into Monday as this piece of the wave ejects across the Mississippi River. Therefore, would not be surprised to see possible storm totals between today and Monday morning trend higher. QPF has been adjusted on broader scale to reflect most areas seeing 0.5-1.00" outside of training convection- which remains a strong possibility given antecedent radar trends in this pattern despite high corfidi vectors. Thus, it is not slow moving convection that prompts the hydro concerns, but rather up stream growth with efficient rainfall rates as most cells appear to be moving at a decent pace.

High pressure descends from the Midwest on Monday afternoon ushering the frontal boundary east of the Mississippi Delta with skies clearing of active weather by the evening. This new pattern of stabilizing subsidence will bring back mostly sunny conditions Tuesday. Temperatures begin a warming trend into the upper 80's by the upcoming midweek. High pressure will settle across the TX/LA coast through the remainder of the week which favors near zero chances of precipitation and a noticeable reduction in afternoon humidity.

Kowalski / 30

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

TAFs vary greatly by site wrt ceilings but overall will prevail MVFR/IFR conditions into dawn. LIFR conditions can be expected periodically in heavy RA or TS through the morning. Convection across north LA and NE TX expected to drift south through the mid day. Still some question of exact coverage, but 00z/09th sounding shows a highly saturated PWATs capable of heavy rain rates. Severe threat is Marginal today, however, periodic heavy rainfall expected through tonight.

MARINE
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Light southeast onshore winds and low seas will prevail through Sunday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop over the nearshore coastal waters Saturday as an upper level disturbance moves across the region. A dry cold front will push through the region Monday morning turning winds offshore between 15 and 20 knots Monday into Monday night. Onshore flow becomes reestablished Tuesday through the end of the week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop before today in response to another upper level disturbance moving across the region. A lull in activity is possible during the early evening.
Fewer storms are expected Sunday although scattered activity will likely develop Sunday afternoon ahead a frontal boundary. This dry cold front will push through the region Monday turning light winds out of the north and bringing precipitation chances to an end for the rest of the week.

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.