Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Groves, TX

DISCUSSION
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

A wave of precipitation associated with an upper level disturbance continues to produce slow moving heavy rain across much of lower acadiana early this afternoon. High res guidance has been consistent in developing an additional wave of convection this afternoon which will generally move west to east across the region.
As has been the case over the last couple of days, this convection will be capable of heavy rainfall that will have the potential to create or exacerbate flash flooding. WPC has increased their day one excessive rainfall outlook to a slight risk across nearly all of south and central Louisiana and maintained a marginal risk across southeast Texas which has seen significantly less recent rain. In addition to the flood risk, a few storms will have the potential to become strong to severe with hail and damaging winds being the biggest threats (the environment is not particularly favorable for tornadoes).

Precipitation is expected to come to an end around or shortly after sunset this evening. While skies will remain overcast, winds are expected to calm and with the ground saturated in many spots from today's rains, areas of dense fog are once again expected to develop early Sunday morning.

Another round of convection is expected Sunday afternoon. This activity will initially be diurnally driven, but will eventually come under the influence of an approaching cold front that will push through the region late Sunday night into Monday morning. Guidance has backed off of PoPs Sunday afternoon compared to this time yesterday although storms will still be capable of heavy rain.
Convection is expected to increase late Sunday night into early Monday with the approach and passage of the front with activity coming to an end from north to south following the fropa.

A brief period of cooler and drier air will stream into the region in the wake of the front Monday and Tuesday with the coolest temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s occurring Tuesday morning. Southerly flow and warming temperatures will prevail Wednesday through the end of next week with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid 60s to near 70.

Jones

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Scattered convection occurring across the region with a stalled frontal boundary, latest upper level disturbance, and a moist air mass combining for the activity. Expect the activity to diminish between 10/02-04z with loss of daytime heating.

Overnight, expected low clouds to form with MVFR/IFR ceilings.
Places that received significant rainfall may also see patchy fog with visibility between 1 and 5 miles.

Ceilings will gradually lift to MVFR during the morning and to VFR at a majority of the terminals by early afternoon.

Scattered showers and a few storms also expected to develop after 10/18z.

07/Rua

MARINE
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue over the coastal waters and nearshore lakes and bays this afternoon before coming to an end around sunset this evening. Light onshore flow will prevail today into Sunday. Another round of thunderstorms are expected Sunday evening into Monday morning as a cold front pushes offshore. Breezy offshore flow will develop in the wake of the front Monday and continue through Wednesday before turning back onshore Wednesday night through the rest of the week. Seas will remain in the 1-3 foot range through the forecast period.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon before coming to an end around sunset this evening.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning with the approach and passage of a weak cold front. Somewhat cooler, drier air will filter into the region on light northerly winds Monday. This will drop afternoon RH values into the 40-50% range both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.
Southerly winds return Wednesday night through the end of the week increasing atmospheric moisture.

CLIMATE
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

In a quick turn of precipitable fortune the climate site at Lafayette has now reached 0.06 inches above normal precipitation year to date not including precipitation that has occurred this morning and additional rain expected later today. The four other climate sites (LCH, BPT, AEX and ARA) remain between 3 and 7 inches below normal year to date with LCH being the driest.

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.