Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Green Cove Springs, FL

NEAR TERM
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A deep south to southwest flow will continue today as a nearly vertically stacked low pressure system over the south MS Valley moves very slowly to the northeast. Numerous showers and some storms are expected in the morning and early afternoon before a dry slot begins to result in a drier pattern by the late aftn and evening.
Overall, lower rain chances expected in the afternoon due to the affects of dry air aloft. The threat of some strong to briefly severe storms remains today with a hail and wind threat. Have seen some brief rotation with storms early this morning but likely tied to the lifting warm front. With time, this threat of a brief tornado will diminish through the day. May see a brief line of showers and storms, oriented north to south, along the advancing cold front later in the aftn but guidance differs on how well this system remains intact. Rain chances should also decrease tonight as main dynamics and deep moisture lifts out to he northeast. High temperatures will be in the lower 80s, with lows tonight in the mid to upper 60s.
Can't rule out some light patchy fog late tonight given lighter winds and moist grounds.

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Showers and storms start easing up as the surface front continues to move east out into the Atlantic for Tuesday and Wednesday. An upper level trough will move from west to east across the area, providing some instability along with the afternoon sea-breeze, to support some scattered showers over the area. Rain chances will continue to diminish into Wednesday as high pressure and dry air fill in behind the passing front.

Daytime highs will steadily increase from near normal temperatures (low to mid 80s) Tuesday to above normal (mid to upper 80s) by Wednesday afternoon. Overnight lows continue to hold steady in the 60s.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Dry high pressure settles over the area Thursday as the upper level trough continues its trek east away from the area. Daytime highs will continue to increase above the seasonal average and into the 90s by the end of the week. Overnight lows will will be in the mid to upper 60s with some areas seeing temperatures in the low 70s at times.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 739 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

A brief break, allowing temporary VFR conditions along the I-95 corridor this morning, will quickly fill back in as convection lifts from south to north. A cold front gradually pushes west to east across the area through the TAF period and will generate rounds of rain through mid morning with periods of TSRA through the afternoon and evening which will impact all TAF sites. Anticipate visibility reductions to IFR with passing TSRA or +SHRA along with ceilings fluctuating between MVFR and IFR levels with passing convection.

The front will push east and off the coast tonight with improvements from west to east through 01-05z. Given all the recent rainfall and low level moisture in place, areas of fog and low stratus development will be possible, especially inland during the predawn hours Tuesday.

MARINE
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Winds have picked up over area waters and guidance shows marginal to low-end small craft advisory conditions for winds. Given the decent support from the current guidance, opted to include all waters in the small craft advisory today. Winds will turn more offshore by Tuesday as a cold front sweeps through the area later tonight.
Largely offshore flow from the south and southwest will dominate rest of the week with sea breezes also likely from about Wednesday onward.

Rip currents: Rough surf and gusty winds will create a high risk of rip currents at area beaches today. Elevated rip current risk on Tuesday due to the prior event and occasional rough surf. Prevailing offshore winds and lowering surf conditions should result in a low risk or low-end moderate from Wednesday through at least Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 80 62 82 63 / 60 30 40 10 SSI 78 68 82 67 / 80 40 40 20 JAX 81 65 86 64 / 70 30 40 0 SGJ 79 66 85 66 / 90 30 20 10 GNV 81 65 85 64 / 60 30 20 0 OCF 81 66 85 66 / 60 30 10 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450-452- 454.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ470-472- 474.