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GMZ750 Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 918 Pm Edt Mon Oct 2 2023 /818 Pm Cdt Mon Oct 2 2023/
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 am edt /8 am cdt/ Tuesday...
Rest of tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Tuesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Wednesday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Thursday..East winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Friday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters choppy.

GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 918 Pm Edt Mon Oct 2 2023
Synopsis..
moderate daytime and strong evening breezes will continue through Thursday as a large surface high pressure remains seated over the forecast area with a tight pressure gradient keeping winds elevated. Additionally, seas will remain elevated with heights ranging from 5-6ft west of the ochlocknee river. A small craft advisory remains in effect for our waters through Tuesday afternoon. Winds will gradually become gentle as the pressure gradient broadens Thursday and Friday. For the aforementioned period, winds will remain n-ne before a gradual shift to more northerly and occasionally nw'erly as a weak front will pass through the area Saturday.

FXUS62 KTAE 030120 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 920 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 917 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Local observations and satellite imagery show a large plume of haze and lofted smoke moving in from the east. This will likely continue to spread eastward through the area during the overnight hours. However, observations indicate this isn't causing much issues with visibility with most spots reporting between 5 and 7 statute miles. Thus, given this haze and the HRRR near-surface smoke indicating this will spread eastward, have added a mention of haze for tonight. This should lift with daytime mixing during the morning hours on Tuesday. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

NEAR TERM
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Mid to upper level ridging prevails near the MS Valley with the region along the southern periphery of surface high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic. This will promote deep layer northeasterly flow within a moderate easterly pressure gradient through Tuesday, with a similar atmospheric setup leading to a near persistence forecast. The main change on Tuesday will be a tendency for dew points to decrease lower than today from the late morning into the evening hours, especially northwest of the FL Big Bend, thanks to a slightly drier boundary layer.
In fact, dew points are forecast to bottom out around 50F to the northwest of an ABY-DHN-DFK line. Model soundings also indicate a similar low-level thermal profile, so highs again will be in the mid-80s across much of the region. With winds around 15 kts within the mixed-layer, gusts of 15 to 20 mph can be expected again out of the East-Northeast. While the rip current risk is expected to decrease in Walton County on Tuesday morning, a high risk of rip currents is expected to continue for the Franklin and Gulf County South facing beaches.

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Persistent ridging over the area will continue through the short term period as a large longwave trough slowly traverses over the western US. At the surface, high pressure will also remain in place through the period with east-northeast winds at the surface. The tranquil pattern will also continue with no PoP's in the forecast inland and over our waters. Maximum temperatures will reach the upper 80s areawide with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s, perhaps dropping into the upper 50s in our northernmost AL and GA counties.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

The upper ridge will gradually erode Thursday through Thursday evening as the aforementioned upper trough slowly traverses toward the eastern US. At the surface, a diffuse cold front will move in from the NW through Saturday, though weak moisture return and lack of forcing will suppress storms from forming ahead. Post frontal, high temperatures areawide will likely drop to the 70s with dewpoints dropping into the low 50s, possibly dropping into the 40s which would result in quite a pleasant weekend.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals throughout the forecast period. Main concern is gusty winds up to 20kts late tomorrow morning into the afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Moderate daytime and strong evening breezes will continue through Thursday as a large surface high pressure remains seated over the forecast area with a tight pressure gradient keeping winds elevated. Additionally, seas will remain elevated with heights ranging from 5-6ft west of the Ochlocknee River. A small craft advisory remains in effect for our waters through Tuesday afternoon.
Winds will gradually become gentle as the pressure gradient broadens Thursday and Friday. For the aforementioned period, winds will remain N-NE before a gradual shift to more northerly and occasionally NW'erly as a weak front will pass through the area Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

A dry pattern remains in place through much of the week. In particular, Relative Humidity will be lowest again on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, when values are forecast to range from the mid-20s to mid-30s, especially in Southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. This is the area of greatest concern, as it coincides with the most pronounced drought conditions. Also, east-northeast wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph are likely both days from the late morning into the evening, along with elevated dispersions. Fire weather concerns are likely to persist much of the week, although winds are expected to decrease and the Relative Humidity values will increase by Thursday.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

There are no hydro concerns at this time with minimal rainfall expected over the next seven days.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 86 63 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 87 65 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 87 59 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 84 59 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 85 62 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 88 65 87 67 / 10 0 0 0 Apalachicola 84 70 83 69 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM CDT Tuesday for FLZ108.

High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Tuesday for GMZ750-752-755-770-772-775.

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Channel entrance
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Mon -- 06:36 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:42 AM CDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:04 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:27 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:42 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:54 PM CDT     1.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Channel entrance, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Panama City
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Mon -- 06:36 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:03 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:00 AM CDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:27 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:42 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Panama City, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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