Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tyndall AFB, FL

SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

We will be closely watching AL93 during this period, as it passes west across our region. NHC has maintained a 40 percent chance of tropical development over the northeast or north-central Gulf.
Regardless of development, somewhat common impacts are expected across our region. Rip currents at beaches could be a big deal on Thursday and Friday, given a long fetch of fresh southerly breezes across the eastern Gulf, as AL93 moves off west of our service area. Other impacts will be fresh to possibly strong breezes on the Gulf waters, and pockets of heavy rain closer to the coast.

AL93 is a disorganized feature as it makes landfall on the FL East Coast. Satellite imagery shows an exposed low-level center, and its convective pattern is heavily lopsided and influenced by northeasterly shear. There will be multiple factors working against development of AL93 before it exits west of our service area on Wed night or early Thursday.

First scenario... the center tracks too far north closer to I-10 and never re-emerges over the Gulf
Case closed
no redevelopment. It would just be a broad low with some extra rain.

Second scenario... the center re-emerges over Apalachee Bay and basically tracks westward along the Forgotten Coast and Emerald Coast. This corridor is where there may be the least amount of TC-killing shear and the most favorable atmospheric conditions.
However, the proximity to land would be a significant inhibitor to development. Heavier rain would probably stay near or off the coast, with lopsided development due to land interaction.

Third scenario... the center re-emerges even further south and tracks further offshore. On one hand, the system would then have a wider swatch of warm Gulf waters to fester and re-develop over.
However, global models show strong E-NE upper level winds further offshore, so this would inhibit development before getting west of our waters. The northeast shear would keep the heaviest wind and rain south through west of the center, i.e. even further offshore.

The commonality of all three scenarios is that the system will struggle to redevelop before exiting our region. If it does redevelop, it will be lopsided, with the heavier wind and rain offshore.

So this leaves rip currents as the top concern, especially Thursday and Friday once southerly breezes kick in. The second concern will be heavy rain, mainly south of I-10. Small Craft Advisory strength winds are possible over the Gulf waters. PETSS guidance shows no reasonable case for coastal flooding.

Do stay weather aware through at least Thursday. A lot can change with a system such as this. Even a low-end tropical system can produce a lot of rain, and rip currents will be a big deal at beaches on Thu and Fri.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

The subtropical ridge will quickly build in from the east from Friday through early next week. The air mass will start to bake under the subtropical ridge, and temperatures will rise above normal again by Saturday. PW values will bottom out over the weekend as large-scale subsidence is maximized under the building ridge. Even then, there will be enough moisture and seabreeze- inspired lift for at least a few storms.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon and early evening with the only exceptions behind scattered to widespread shower and storm activity from 19z to 00z this evening. With northeast winds, best chances are likely at ECP/TLH but potential exists at VLD/DHN and to a lesser extent ABY. Showers and storms die down later this evening. IFR ceilings are possible tonight from ABY/TLH and eastward as low cigs move in from the east

MARINE
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

A trough of low pressure will move west across the waters on Wednesday and Wednesday night. There is a 40 percent chance that this trough could form into a tropical depression while traversing the northeast and north-central Gulf. Once the trough moves west of the waters, fresh and possibly strong southerly breezes are likely on Thursday. The subtropical ridge axis will build westward across the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf from Friday through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

A moist air mass will be in place on Wednesday and Thursday, as a weak tropical low moves across and west of our region. Heavy rain is possible, mainly over Florida districts. The tropical low will be long-gone on Friday, and regular summertime high pressure will build back in. Temperatures this weekend will climb back above normal.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

A Flood Watch is now in effect for Dixie County, which already saw about 5 inches of rain on Monday. An additional 2 to 4 inches through this evening with local amounts of 5 to 7 inches would cause even more flooding.

Heavy rain will be possible over our Florida counties through Thursday, as a tropical low moves west across the region. Along the Forgotten Coast, multi-day rain totals of 2 to 5 inches are possible. We will have to most closely watch any slow-moving or pivoting bands of heavy rain that develop south of the low-level center of the tropical low. WPC has outlooked much of the area, especially closer to the coast, in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall through late this week.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 75 88 76 91 / 50 90 30 90 Panama City 76 89 77 89 / 70 90 60 90 Dothan 75 91 75 93 / 30 70 10 80 Albany 75 91 74 95 / 10 60 10 60 Valdosta 74 93 75 95 / 10 70 10 60 Cross City 71 91 73 92 / 80 80 40 80 Apalachicola 77 86 79 87 / 60 90 70 90

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>016-027-108-112-114-115-118-127-326-426.

Flood Watch through late tonight for FLZ034-134.

GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ155>157.

AL...None.
GM...None.