Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tyndall AFB, FL

SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

This may come as a shock to you, but more fog is in the forecast tonight. The ultimate evolution of the fog remains a bit of a question, which is why we have held off on issuing a Dense Fog Advisory for any of our land areas at this time. Temperatures will generally settle in the lower to middle 60s, or 15 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Monday afternoon/evening is looking... interesting. Showers and storms are forecast to develop across Mississippi and Alabama Monday afternoon before diving east-southeastward into our area later Monday afternoon into Monday evening. A few of the storms will be capable of producing large hail (1" in diameter or greater) and damaging wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted portions of southeastern Alabama with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather.

A closer inspection shows a subtle H5 shortwave forecast to traverse through Mississippi and Alabama later Monday morning into the afternoon. Combine that with the same area being under the left exit region of the 250mb jet and a seabreeze front pushing inland should be enough to get some showers and storms started. Forecast soundings also show rather straight hodographs with decent speed shear above 3km, SBCAPE over 1500-2000 J/kg, and mid-level lapse rates near 7.0 C/km. That sets the stage for the potential for rather large hail.
It's no wonder that SPC covered parts of southeastern Alabama in Conditional Intensity Group 1 (CIG1), which highlights the potential for 2" diameter hail or larger. On the damaging wind side, weak low- level flow is somewhat of a hindrance. However, modeled DCAPE of 500-700 J/kg is enough for some gusty wind potential. Add in the fact that modeled temperatures on the soundings are in the middle 70s and we have the potential for lower 80s means that some of the CAMs could be under doing the DCAPE parameter. If that turns out to be the case, then damaging wind gusts would be a slightly greater concern.

Outside of any showers and storms, temperatures are forecast to rocket into the 80s with a seabreeze pushing inland helping to "cool" us off a bit.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Believe it or not, but Tuesday and Wednesday are looking even hotter than we've been the past several days. In fact, a few locations away from the coast could make a run at 90 degrees either Tuesday and/or Wednesday. While it's feeling more like May, it's March, we promise.
A strong cold front then barrels through the southeast Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing a line of showers and storms along with it. While severe weather prospects remain murky at this time, we can tell you that cooler weather is on the way later this week into the weekend as temperatures drop back into the 70s for highs and 40s, maybe even some 30s, for lows. After this prolonged stretch of warm weather, that'll feel somewhat chilly for a lot of us.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Multiple cloud levels, batches of showers, potential for isol'd thunder, and another round of widespread fog/low stratus is making for convoluted TAFs yet again. Ceilings this aftn are mainly in the IFR-MVFR range outside of ECP (LIFR) and VLD (VFR). It appears that slight, albeit temporary improvement is on the way heading into the evening. Thereafter, flt conds degrade from south to north as fog/low stratus blankets the region tonight- overnight.
This activity should erode around 15Z tmrw.

MARINE
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

High pressure remains in control of the northeastern Gulf through at least Tuesday. Sea fog remains the main concern until then with gentle to moderate southerly to southeasterly breezes. Southerly winds increase Wednesday into Wednesday night ahead of a strong cold front forecast to swing through the northeastern Gulf. Winds shift out of the northwest following the front as we continue to monitor the potential for gale conditions Wednesday night into Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Light southwesterly transport winds are expected through at least Tuesday with fair to good dispersions away from the coast. Isolated showers and storms are possible over inland areas Monday with gusty, erratic winds, hail, and dangerous lightning strikes. Tuesday will be dry, but hot, with good dispersions forecast away from the Gulf coast. Southwesterly transport winds increase Wednesday afternoon for areas along and west of a line from Albany, GA to Tallahassee, FL as a cold front nears our area; this will lead to high dispersions across our southeastern Alabama and several of our southwestern Georgia fire districts. Areas of fog are expected each morning through at least Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Flood concerns remain very low the next several days. Our next opportunity for widespread rain arrives Wednesday night into Thursday. Even then, the chances of any one location receiving more than 1" of rain are low, or less than 30%. Otherwise, the drought is like the Energizer Bunny... It just keeps going, and going, and going, and going...

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 65 83 64 85 / 10 10 10 0 Panama City 64 78 65 79 / 20 10 0 0 Dothan 63 81 65 84 / 30 40 40 0 Albany 63 82 63 84 / 30 20 30 0 Valdosta 63 85 63 87 / 20 10 20 0 Cross City 61 84 61 86 / 10 0 0 0 Apalachicola 64 74 65 74 / 10 10 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening to 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Monday for GMZ730-735-751-752-755-765- 775.