SHORT TERM
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Weak ridging remains in place Sunday, but a backdoor cold front will be close to our area which may provide some local enhancement to rain chances Sunday afternoon. This combined with PWATs around 2 to 2.2 inches will yield high rain chances Sunday, likely starting near and off the coast in the morning, then spreading inland through the day. The main threat appears to be localized heavy rainfall and nuisance flooding. Highs will be around 90 with lows in the mid-70s. Heat index values of 102-108 are possible.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Ridging will build in from the west through the week, which will result in a gradual decline in rain chances through the week.
However, PWATs will still remain near 2 inches through the week, which will continue to maintain decent rain chances through the week. We may see a bit more of a gusty wind potential with storms next week as some drier air enters the mid levels. But, we'll also have the threat for localized heavy downpours continue. Highs will start to climb toward the mid-90s by the middle to latter part of the week with heat index values potentially climbing to heat advisory levels by the end of the week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Continued VCTS at the TAF sites through 01Z as convection should begin to wane over the next several hours but should be away from the airports by then. VFR will prevail overnight into Saturday morning. Scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms will occur Saturday and have VCTS once again in the TAFs for the afternoon hours. Winds will be mainly light tonight becoming more southerly through the day.

MARINE
Issued at 242 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Each night and morning will feature showers and storms. Some waterspouts and gusty winds may be possible with the stronger showers or storms. Otherwise, light and variable winds are expected through the period with 1 to 2 foot seas.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 242 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

There are minimal fire weather concerns as the wet pattern will continue for the next several days. Chances for showers and thunderstorms can create erratic winds and frequent lightning.
Through the period, low dispersions between 10 and 30 are expected each day through the forecast period.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 242 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

With an abundantly moist atmosphere remaining in place for the foreseeable future, expect daily chances for locally heavy rainfall. With the ground becoming increasingly moist over the last week or so, we are a little more susceptible to flash flooding. A couple inches of rain within a short period of time could result in some localized flash flooding in urban or poor drainage areas. The Weather Prediction Center has our area outlined in a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4)
through at least Monday.

The only creek in action stage is the Bruce Creek near Redbay, but all others remain below. Wouldn't be surprised if the small creeks and streams see some response if heavy rainfall occurs in those small basins. But no mainstem river issues are anticipated.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 74 93 75 90 / 20 70 40 80 Panama City 78 91 77 90 / 30 60 50 80 Dothan 74 93 74 90 / 20 60 30 80 Albany 74 94 74 90 / 10 50 30 70 Valdosta 74 94 75 92 / 30 60 40 70 Cross City 74 91 74 91 / 40 70 50 80 Apalachicola 78 89 78 89 / 40 60 60 80

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.