SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Mid and upper level clouds near and north of Highway 90 have cleared, while cloudiness persists farther south into the Rio Grande and coastal plains. Afternoon temperatures are warmest where the clearing has occurred and with some additional heating, we could tie or break record high temperatures at Austin Mabry and Austin Bergstrom. We've seen some light showers along the Rio Grande mainly near and south of Eagle Pass this morning and the latest radar data continues to show some light echoes in the mentioned area. Radar imagery also shows some convection beginning to develop farther north into central Texas along a weak frontal boundary. For late this afternoon and into the evening hours, the hi-res models generally show some potential for isolated to scattered convection to develop across portions of the Hill Country into the I-35 corridor near and north of Austin. We will continue to mention a low chance for showers and storms, but will keep chances limited to 20- 30%. Farther south, we can't rule out a stray shower or storm, but confidence is much lower. Most of the convection should weaken with the loss of daytime heating, so the forecast will be dry for most areas by late evening into the overnight hours. The exception will be across portions of the Rio Grande plains south of Eagle Pass, where some overnight showers remain possible. On Monday, high temperatures may ease a degree or two compared to today. However, highs will still remain above normal for mid-September, with 90s in store. We will need to monitor for the possibility of some isolated afternoon convection across portions of the Hill Country into the I- 35 corridor on Monday. Much will depend on how much convection develops today and if the frontal boundary is nudged southward. For now, confidence is low and we will not mention in the forecast at this time.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Little change, featuring above normal temperatures and a rain free forecast, will be expected across South-Central Texas for mid to late week. This will be the result of mid-level ridging aloft and the continued light to modest southerly low level flow. Afternoon highs will top out generally in the mid to upper 90s while the overnight lows trend warm and humid in the low to mid 70s across most locations. Mostly sunny skies should generally trend each afternoon, however, do expect patchy to areas of low clouds each morning with the humid dew points in place across the region.

An upper level trough advancing across the Four Corners region on Friday into the weekend should help to erode the western periphery of the mid-level ridging over the local region. While the trough lifts northeastward toward the Central Plains into Sunday, it may allow for a weak surface front to approach the Hill Country for sometime Sunday. With sufficient regional moisture, lower mid-level heights, and the influence from that surface front could yield to a low end rain and storm chance during the weekend. However, Sunday looks slightly more favorable and of a larger areal footprint in comparison to Saturday. The temperatures will shave off a couple degrees as well but look to remain above the average.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Light winds suggest that VFR skies will prevail through the period, but a brief pocket of mvfr cigs could still form around San Antonio between 09Z and 13Z. There is an outflow boundary to arrive in AUS by 01Z an an isolated storm could form behind it. Latest radar trends show overall weakening of convection so will look to cancel the TEMPO group early is the trends continue over the next hour.

CLIMATE
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Record High Temperatures

Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep 17

Austin Bergstrom....99 (2005*)...99 (2019*)...99 (2005*)
Austin Camp Mabry...99 (1953)...101 (2019)....99 (2021)
Del Rio............102 (1912)...101 (1997)...103 (2021)
San Antonio.........98 (1988*)...99 (1954)....98 (1997)

* denotes previous years

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 74 98 74 98 / 30 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 97 73 97 / 30 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 99 74 98 / 20 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 71 95 71 95 / 30 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 75 95 76 96 / 10 20 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 73 95 72 96 / 30 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 73 95 73 97 / 0 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 97 73 97 / 30 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 96 73 97 / 30 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 74 97 75 97 / 10 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 74 98 75 98 / 0 10 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.