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FXUS64 KEWX 090438 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1038 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 232 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Low stratus has been slow to erode across the region, especially over the central belt along the Balcones Escarpment. These clouds eventually erode but temperatures will top out a little lower than previously expected across that region. Elsewhere, the afternoon highs still top out in the upper 70s and low 80s for some area locations. The first half of the evening should see few clouds but the warm and humid conditions ahead of the incoming front will promote returning low stratus and fog. The clouds and fog are to focus south and east of the Balcones Escarpment overnight into Saturday morning. Patchy dense fog could develop, especially for locations around and/or south of San Antonio. Patchy drizzle will also accompany the fog and low stratus. Motorists should budget extra time if traveling in these areas during this portion of the period.

Upper level troughing from the Great Lakes into the Central CONUS with diving shortwave energy digging into Texas, helps to propel this next cold front across our region on Saturday. The front advances across the Hill Country through the latter half of the morning and into the I-35 corridor by midday and early afternoon.
The front as it moves southward into the region will gradually eat away any remaining low stratus and fog. The front clears southern portions of the CWA by late afternoon. These southern areas will have the warmest daytime highs in the mid to upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Daytime highs trend cooler farther to the north as the drier and cooler air starts to filter in behind the front with increasing north-northwesterly breezes. The strongest breezes on Saturday afternoon will funnel down along the Rio Grande. These winds along with the much drier air with humidity levels into the teens result in near critical fire weather conditions. With fuel dryness above normal denoted from the Texas A&M forecast Service, conditions likely avoid meeting critical thresholds. Elsewhere outside of the coastal plains, expect elevated fire weather conditions during Saturday afternoon behind the front.

The northerly winds will pick up even more across the region for Saturday evening outside from the Rio Grande. Expect for winds gusting into the 35 mph range, perhaps brief higher at times.
However, conditions remain just short of Wind Advisory criteria across the region. Nonetheless, we recommend to go ahead and tie down the holiday decorations and any other loose outdoor items.
These blustery winds will also promote strong cold air advection with plummeting temperatures. Short term guidance have trended colder into Sunday morning and have adjusted the overnight lows downward as a result. 30s and low 40s will be common. Isolated northern Hill Country communities, could see enough cold air advection for a brief light freeze. Regardless of a brief light freeze across the Hill Country, when factoring in those blustery winds, expect a very cold start with wind chills down into the 20s throughout the Hill Country and the 30s elsewhere.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 232 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

A chilly start to the long term period is in store as surface high pressure settles into the region behind the departing cold front.
Sunday night into Monday morning will be the coldest part of the forecast period as clear skies and light surface winds will result in ideal radiative cooling conditions. Currently, low temperatures for Monday morning are forecast to range from the upper 20s to mid 30s across south-central Texas. With no counties removed from our Freeze Program so far this season, a Freeze Warning may be needed for several counties, especially across our northern and eastern zones.

A gradual warming trend is then forecast into Wednesday as an upper level low moves into the Four Corners region. Moisture will move back into the region ahead of this system as it stalls over the Four Corners. This will bring chances for showers into the forecast beginning on Wednesday across mainly central and western portions of the CWA. The upper low should start to push east again late Thursday into Friday which will consequently shift chances for showers and possibly a storm or two to the east. There will be little day-to-day change in high and low temperatures Wed-Fri due to widespread cloud cover. The cold front associated with this system should push through sometime on Saturday after the end of the period, which would bring an end to the precipitation chances and a much less dramatic change in temperatures compared to this weekend's front.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1038 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

IFR to LIFR conditions are expected at I-35 sites through the morning hours due to fog and low stratus. AUS will be near the fringes of the worst conditions so there is less confidence on the exact timing for these conditions to begin and end whereas SAT/SSF will likely remain with IFR to LIFR conditions through 16-17Z. For KDRT, MVFR visibilities appear possible through the morning. A cold front will move across the area midday clearing any lingering fog and ceilings and gusty northwest wind will be seen behind it. Gusty wind looks to continue into early Sunday morning, with the strongest wind expected during the evening hours.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 232 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Near-critical fire weather conditions will likely develop across the Southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains on Saturday afternoon as gusty northwesterly wins combine with a much drier airmass moving into the region behind the passage of a cold front earlier in the day. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts will overlap humidity levels falling into the teens. While conditions may briefly reach critical levels, above normal fuel moisture will likely preclude the issuance of Red Flag Warnings during this time. Elsewhere across South-Central Texas except for the coastal plains, could see humidity low enough and the winds strong enough for elevated fire weather conditions. Issuance of a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement will likely be needed for this region during Saturday afternoon.

Remains very dry through Sunday afternoon with minimum relative humidity levels area wide falling to or below 20 percent. Wind speeds, however, will diminish through the latter half of the afternoon and around the time of minimum relative humidity. If stronger winds do persist a bit long, then elevated fire weather conditions could exist across the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 61 74 40 58 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 61 75 40 59 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 60 76 40 61 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 55 69 35 56 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 55 76 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 59 72 37 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 56 78 39 61 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 59 75 39 59 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 66 76 41 57 / 0 10 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 59 76 41 60 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 61 77 43 62 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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