Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kerrville, TX

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kerrville, TX

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Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 081738 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1238 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

The MCS and associated MCV along the Rio Grande will continue to slide southeast into South Texas through the early morning hours, eventually decaying. Upstream convection in the northwest flow aloft across West Central Texas should also gradually weaken as it encounters higher convective inhibition, but could clip portions of Llano and Burnet Counties during the pre-dawn hours.

A challenging forecast today with where convection re-develops and how widespread it becomes. The ridge axis remains across eastern NM and west TX. Downstream impulses in the northwest flow aloft will continue to assist with convective development across the region today. Initially in the morning debris cirrus shield, from current ongoing convection, may limit destabilization in some areas. However, as we lose some of this cloud cover several CAMs indicate by afternoon development of showers and storms, but differ on convective initiation placement and how much coverage and organization takes place. We have increased PoPs to around 40-50% through portions of the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains today. There is currently a Level 1 of 5 risk for severe storms this afternoon across this broad area, with hail and damaging wind gusts the primary threats. This risk could increase if the more bullish CAM members verify, such as the HRRR. The more aggressive HRRR is indicating a pool of 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE coinciding with bulk shear values of around 40 KT, which would support intense updrafts. DCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg are also indicated, supporting a risk for some strong to severe downbursts. In addition, some pockets of heavy rainfall could occur. HRRR probability-matched mean indicates 1-2 inches of rainfall possible and max values of 2-3 inches. This would be in isolated spots. A Level 1 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall leading to flooding will be in place today through this region.
Convection should weaken and eventually dissipate after sunset.

The upper level ridge axis does nudge into the area on Friday. There is a slight chance to see some isolated showers and storms develop late afternoon on the downstream side of the ridge across Lee, Fayette, and Lavaca Counties. In addition, upstream of the ridge axis isolated storms could develop late afternoon and into the evening across western Val Verde County, where there is a Level 1 of 5 risk for severe storms on Friday. Otherwise, warmer on Friday.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

There is high confidence in temperatures becoming above normal with mainly dry conditions expected through the long term period.

Weak upper level ridging currently across New Mexico and west Texas will become more centered over the region for this weekend. This will allow for temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 90s for most locations across south-central Texas, with even warmer heat indices. By Sunday afternoon, temperatures will likely reach the lower 100s for areas closer to the Rio Grande. The weak ridging will largely preclude chances for showers and storms through the period, but we do have isolated chances (~20%) in the forecast for Friday evening across western Val Verde for any activity that might move into the area from the dryline further west. We also cannot rule out some activity across either far northern or western portions of the CWA on Saturday afternoon as the dryline pushes further east and a 500mb shortwave briefly flattens the ridge, but the NBM is trending dry for now. Chances may increase some once CAM guidance becomes available for this time period.

Through early next week, higher heights aloft will push into Mexico and then much of Texas, resulting in a continuing warming trend and what will likely be the first 100 degree day(s) for much of the area. Southerly to southeasterly surface flow in combination with recent rainfall/relatively moist soils will also help keep dewpoints fairly elevated, so much so that heat advisories may be needed by mid-week next week for portions of the area. With the increasing subsidence and weak flow aloft, dry conditions should prevail.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Main story through the near term is the potential for TSRA at the I-35 terminals through this afternoon. Reduced visibilities, heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and large hail will be possible in any CB that move over a terminal. Activity should subside following sunset, giving way to prevailing VFR conditions through the remainder of the period. TSRA should remain east of DRT through this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 94 71 99 74 / 40 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 93 68 97 72 / 40 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 93 69 97 73 / 30 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 91 69 97 73 / 30 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 98 74 103 75 / 0 10 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 92 68 98 73 / 30 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 93 69 99 71 / 20 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 92 68 97 71 / 30 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 91 70 94 73 / 40 20 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 92 71 97 73 / 30 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 93 72 98 73 / 30 10 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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