Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nocatee, FL

NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
Main Highlights:

- Coastal and Marine Impacts Continue, Including Coastal Flood Warning for Upstream St. Johns River. High Risk of rip currents and increasing easterly winds for area coastal waters tonight.

- Numerous showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms across northeast and north central FL through tonight. Isolated flash flooding possible for north central FL into late evening.

Latest mesoanalysis shows northeasterly flow over the region with a frontal boundary nearly stationary over central FL area. This front will start to work back northward late tonight. Not much instability is noted at 1 PM with 400-800 ML CAPE across northeast FL. Areas to widespread showers will continue to develop over northeast FL through tonight due to isentropic processes, with a few embedded thunderstorms possible. Some localized heavy rainfall, and localized flooding is possible for northeast FL where rainfall amounts may reach upwards of 1-3 inches in some spots. Given the look of the radar imagery and the guidance, have opted to go with a flood watch for south portions of the forecast area through late tonight.
Generally looks like moderate to sometimes heavy rainfall potential is best through the late evening and then begin to taper off to a light to an occasional moderate rain after midnight. Breezy northeast to east winds and elevated seas will continue to support the high rip current risk, elevated surf, and elevated water levels both at the coast and the along the St Johns River basin. Water levels upwards of 2 ft MHHW will be possible for the coastal areas, solidly in the minor flood category.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Main Highlights This Period: Friday through Saturday night

- Potential for strong to severe storms increasing through Saturday, along with flooding chances

- Strong onshore winds renew the surf zone risk and continue tidal flooding within the St Johns River and along the Atlantic coast.

As hurricane named Isaias will move north across the Gulf Friday. As it moves north, it will push the warm front north into north central FL as a warm front. The combination of lift along and north of the warm front, combined with outer bands will provide for a stormy day, especially for NE FL. While the greatest chance for severe weather will be to the west of the area, closer to the track of the Hurricane, it can not be ruled out locally due to the warm front.
Due to the cloud and precipitation coverage, temperatures will be a little below average Friday.

The warm front will lift across, then to the north of the area Friday night, as the Hurricane moves inland. Above average precipitation chances will continue as the front lifts through.
Can not rule out a stronger storm due to the warm front.

On Saturday, with the warm front to the north, warm and more moist air will advect north into region. This will bring above average temperatures and continued high chances for precipitation. The chance for strong to severe storms will increase during the day Saturday.

Precipitation chances will be lower Saturday night, but potential will still exist especially across SE GA.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Main Highlights This Period: Sunday through Thursday

- Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday

The cold front trailing from remains of Tropical system will move east southeast across area Sunday through Sunday night. An unseasonably warm airmass will be in place ahead of the passage, along with ample moisture. The combination of these factors will lead to above average convective potential Sunday, with potential for strong to severe storms.

A drier airmass will settle south across the area next week as high pressure builds. Temperatures will remain above average through the week.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Areas of MVFR cigs expected at times through tonight and likely into Friday with increasing rain and shower chances as well. IFR cig and vsby look possible for the area through Friday morning so will lower cloud layers for all the TAFs, but mainly for northeast FL. Rain and showers will also produce MVFR at times and even a chance of IFR for brief periods for northeast FL TAFs. Will probably have TEMPO groups in for northeast FL TAFs for this possibility. For Sfc winds, mainly northeast 8-13 kt today and gradually turning more east after 00z.
Winds do increase late tonight and on Friday from the east-northeast about 12-17 kt with gusts to near 20-25 kt.

MARINE

East northeast winds and seas support small craft caution conditions for most of the area waters today. A front will lift northward through the waters starting tonight with another high pressure center building in north of the region Friday and to the north northeast on Saturday. Small Craft Advisory conditions will return due to elevated easterly winds and seas beginning tonight and Friday and continue through Saturday night.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring Hurricane Isaias in the central Gulf. This system is expected to move northward towards the central Gulf coast region Friday into Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage throughout our local waters during the weekend as tropical moisture surges northward on the eastern periphery of this tropical system.

Rip Currents: A moderate northeast wind and lingering wind-sea state today will support dangerous rip currents and rough surf. High Rip Current Risk will likely continue through this weekend with continued breezy/windy onshore flow.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy High Dispersions Monday

A warm front will stretch east across central FL through Friday.
This front will lift north of the area Friday night, as Hurricane Isaias makes landfall over the northern Gulf coast. A cold front will move southeast across the area Sunday into Sunday night. Above average precipitation chances through Sunday, with potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. The greatest chance for severe storms will be on Saturday. In addition, flooding potential will continue through Sunday.

High pressure will provide mainly dry weather for next week.

HYDROLOGY
Portions of the St Marys, Satilla, and tributaries to the St Johns River have risen into minor or moderate flood stage in response to widespread 4 to 8 inch rainfall over the portions of those basins over the last several days. Additional rainfall through the weekend may prolong or lead to other local river rises. Rain-free conditions next week will allow river levels to lower.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Coastal flooding will persist through the weekend within the St Johns River. Tides will be elevated along the Atlantic coast.
Winds will strengthen through Friday and combine with the astronomical peak tides with the New Moon, yielding Minor to low-end Moderate flooding along at the beaches through at least Saturday night's high tide.

Due to widespread 4 to 8 inches of rainfall across the lower basin of the St Johns river, tidal levels will likely reach moderate levels again with the high tide, up to near 2.25 feet above normally dry ground. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect due to the combination of the freshwater runoff and ongoing 'reverse flow' with the middle and upper portions of the St Johns River. May be able to let the coastal flood warning expire at 5 PM this afternoon. Anticipate water levels at high tide to be at least at Minor Flood level through the weekend within the St Johns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 81 68 75 69 / 10 10 60 90 SSI 82 74 82 74 / 30 40 80 100 JAX 82 71 82 72 / 50 60 90 90 SGJ 81 72 83 75 / 70 80 90 80 GNV 80 69 83 72 / 80 80 80 70 OCF 79 70 86 74 / 90 80 70 40

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Flood Watch through late tonight for FLZ038-137-138-140-233- 237-240-333-340-433-533-633.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ124-138-233-333.
High Risk for Rip Currents through late Saturday night for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ125-225.
Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ132- 137-325-633.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ132-137- 325-633.
GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for GAZ154-166.
High Risk for Rip Currents through late Saturday night for GAZ154- 166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-470.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ452-454-472-474.