Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mexico Beach, FL

SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Upper level ridging is firmly in place over much of the SE, with little change expected in the positioning of this ridge through the next couple of days. Under this dominant ridge, daytime high temperatures will be well-above average in the upper 80s. Some locations will likely reach and/or exceed 90F later this week, especially in our eastern counties away from the coast. Overnight low temperatures this week will be consistently in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Patchy fog is likely the next couple of mornings as winds drop to near calm overnight under the ridge. Otherwise, hot and dry conditions in addition to the ongoing drought will lead to increased fire weather concerns this week, even if surface winds underneath the ridge will be low.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The first indications of a pattern change comes later this week.
A weakening trough will swing well to our north on Friday, helping to start to break down the SE ridge. A much more energetic trough follows a similar path late this weekend, fully pushing out the SE ridge this time. The associated frontal passage with the latter of the two systems will bring lower temperatures early next week, with daytime highs likely in the upper-70s/lower-80s on Monday.
Despite the increased troughing, little-to-no precipitation is currently expected with either system as the greatest forcing will remain well to our north and the airmass overtop of the region will be very dry. Drought conditions will persist or worsen through the forecast period. While still far out at this time, model guidance is indicating an extremely dry post-frontal environment starting next Monday.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 741 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The main concern overnight is the potential for fog, mainly at ECP and DHN. Fog is expected to develop near those locations early Wednesday morning, and dense fog cannot be ruled out. IFR to LIFR conditions are currently shown in a TEMPO group. Fog is expected to lift by mid-morning on Wednesday with VFR conditions prevailing afterwards.

MARINE
Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Surface high pressure will firmly be in place over the next few days. Light to gentle winds out of the south/southeast are expected over the waters this week, with wave heights at around 1 to 2 feet. Seabreezes will likely develop and push inland each afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Hot and dry conditions will characterize the rest of the work week as strong upper level ridging persists over the region.
Transport winds will be light (5-10mph) and out of the south/southwest through the forecast period. Dispersions will be moderate today but will increase on Wednesday, primarily for the western half of the CWA Higher dispersions on Thursday are limited to our northernmost counties with moderate dispersions elsewhere. Afternoon minimum RHs will likely dip into the high-20%/low-30% each day this week. Considering this alongside the antecedent drought conditions and hot high temperatures expected, fire weather concerns can be expected each day despite the weak transport winds.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

No rain is expected for the next several days. Drought conditions will continue or worsen.

For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 58 88 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 61 81 63 81 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 58 87 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 59 89 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 58 90 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 57 88 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 62 77 63 77 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Wednesday for FLZ114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.