Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mexico Beach, FL

SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Surface high pressure slowly noses into the region as an upper level ridge to our west slowly begins to translate east. The reinforcing bout of northeasterly flow is due largely in part to a large US trough exiting the east coast of the US. For sensible weather impacts, things will largely remain the same. Warm, dry, and mostly clear conditions should prevail. The clear skies and dry air mass should allow cool overnight lows to prevail. Highs in the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s can be expected.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

The upper level ridge flattens and continues moving east into the weekend as low-level flow becomes easterly and then southeasterly by Saturday. A small cool-down by a few degrees is possible on Friday, especially across our Georgia counties, but as flow becomes southerly ahead of an approaching upper level trough on Sunday, expect a return to the mid to upper 80s on Saturday. Dry conditions should continue to prevail until the trough and associated front moves through Sunday into Monday. This should bring high rain chances to the forecast area but the more progressive nature of this system will generally keep higher rainfall totals away from the forecast.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period.

MARINE
Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Gentle to moderate north-northeasterly winds induced by building surface high pressure will make for favorable boating conditions through Thursday. The afternoon sea breeze could bring directional changes to the winds in the afternoon, but winds will generally remain under 15 knots. An increase in easterly flow is likely by Friday which could lead to cautionary conditions heading into the weekend. Rain is not expected until late in the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Dry and warm conditions prevail the next few days under persistent northeasterly winds. Minimum relative humidities are forecast to be in the 30s & 40s for much of the Tri-State area each afternoon. Elevated fire concerns appear likely as the week progresses thanks to prolonged warm & dry conditions under surface high pressure. However, critical fire weather conditions are not forecast to develop with relative humidities remaining above criteria and winds not being high enough. Our next chance of rain will be late this weekend as a front moves through but rainfall amounts currently do not appear significant enough to ease current drought conditions in place.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Little to no rainfall is anticipated through Saturday. Drought conditions will therefore persist and/or worsen across much of the Tri-State area. Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for more information.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 60 86 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 63 86 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 58 86 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 58 85 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 59 84 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 60 85 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 66 82 65 81 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.