Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mexico Beach, FL

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Satellite-derived Precipitable Water (PW) imagery currently shows dry values in the 0.7 to 0.9 inch range across our region. METAR observations are also showing dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s, except mid 60s at the coast. So the air mass is quite dry and will remain that way through tonight.

Meanwhile at 500 mb, a strong ridge axis extends from Cuba to the southwest Gulf of America. That ridge axis will start to gradually amplify over the Middle and Western Gulf today, with our upper heights rising modestly. Meanwhile, a weak surface high will become established over the northeast Gulf.

So the prevalence of high pressure and a dry air mass will prevent convection today. Building upper heights and abundant late May sunshine will bring about 1-3 degrees of warming compared with yesterdays high temperatures.

SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

As a low-amplitude 500 mb ridge builds over the western Gulf on Saturday, a quick-moving shortwave (currently back over Nevada)
is expected to zip across the northern periphery of the ridge from the Mid- South region to the southern Appalachians. This could be enough to fire off isolated thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon over the Alabama Wiregrass region and inland FL Panhandle. Lack of moisture will be a limiting factor, but the mid-level dry air will also create a conditional threat for any thunderstorms to produce gusty winds, given potential for entrainment of dry mid-level air.

A flat and low-amplitude 500 mb ridge axis will pass across our region on Sunday. 1000-700 mb flow will become more southerly, and PW values will moisten into the 1.3-1.5 inch range, which is marginal for supporting deep, moist convection of there is a respectable forcing mechanism. Guidance such as the SREF show a stationary front starting to sharpen across northern Alabama and northern Georgia on Sunday. As such, we will have isolated afternoon thunderstorms for areas inland of the seabreeze for Sunday afternoon. The drier air mass will be favorable for gusty thunderstorm winds given dry air entrainment into thunderstorm downdrafts.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

The Southeast States will be under west-southwest flow aloft from Monday through Wednesday, with a steady parade of shortwaves moving by to our north and providing lift needed for thunderstorms over Alabama and Georgia. Meanwhile, southerly 1000-700 mb flow will steadily moisten the air mass a bit more each day. Peak PW values of 1.6-1.9 inches are likely next Wednesday, which will readily support deep moist convection in an environment where low-level focus will come from the seabreeze and from any outflow boundaries that flank southward from storms moving across central AL and GA.

So thunderstorm chances increase on Monday and then again on Tuesday. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday. Daytime temperatures will ease a few degrees by midweek due to more clouds and convection, though muggy dewpoints in the lower 70s will be common by then.

Upper heights will start to modestly lower next Thursday, as an upper trough tries to dig southward from the Great Lakes region.
The front that will have been hung up across northern AL/GA should start to push south toward our region, so expect scattered afternoon thunderstorms to continue.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Light winds this morning become west and southwesterly around 10 knots this afternoon and then become light/variable overnight. Some brief restrictions due to patchy fog are possible around sunrise on Saturday, mostly affecting TLH if it develops.

MARINE
Issued at 346 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

A weak high pressure center will be located over the northeast Gulf through Monday morning, allowing only light and gentle breezes outside of the nearshore afternoon seabreeze. High pressure will move east of Florida later Monday into Tuesday, supporting development of gentle southerly breezes across the eastern Gulf.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 346 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Temperatures will undergo a day-to-day warming trend through Sunday. Daytime temperatures over the holiday weekend will run 5 to 8 degrees above normal. Meanwhile, the air mass today will be similarly dry as Thursday, but then dewpoints and humidity will creep up over the weekend, as each days afternoon seabreeze pushes a little more humidity onshore. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms will reappear on Sunday, with coverage increasing a bit each day through next Wednesday. Otherwise, high afternoon dispersion values are expected each day through the weekend along and north of the Florida state line.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 346 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Flooding is not expected for the next 7 days.

Higher thunderstorm chances are in the forecast from Tuesday through Thursday of next week. Rainfall amounts do not appear sufficient to cause flooding problems, but short-lived runoff issues are possible where rainfall rates become intense beneath the core of stronger storms.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 68 96 71 95 / 0 10 0 10 Panama City 73 89 74 88 / 0 10 0 10 Dothan 68 93 70 93 / 0 10 10 20 Albany 68 94 71 94 / 0 0 10 30 Valdosta 68 96 70 96 / 0 0 0 20 Cross City 65 94 67 93 / 0 10 0 20 Apalachicola 72 86 73 86 / 0 0 0 10

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.