Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Arabi, LA

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Arabi, LA

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Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 081748 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1248 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Overall pattern continue to be dominated by upper lows over New England and near the Nevada-California border. Upper ridging was noted from northern Mexico northward into the Dakotas. Troughing associated with the New England low was evident across pretty much the entire portion of the country east of the Mississippi River.
Locally, the surface pressure pattern continues to be rather weak with no significant surface features nearby. A backdoor cold front, with dew points below 60F was well to our north and northeast near a Memphis to Birmingham line.

Radar early this morning showed a few thunderstorms to the southwest of Terrebonne Parish over the Gulf. However, these are moving away from the coast, as opposed to the previous few mornings where they were moving toward the coast. Temperatures at 3 AM CDT ranged from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Forecast problem for the next 36 hours is the potential for thunderstorm development and the effect on high temperatures.
Precipitable water values that were in the 1.6 to 1.8 range Wednesday evening are forecast to be in the 1.3 to 1.5 range today and Friday. This would argue for somewhat lower areal coverage of storms, especially as one goes further north and east. Forecast convective temperatures near or just above 90 the next couple days means there should be little, if any, thunderstorm development during the morning hours. A few storms could linger beyond 00z both days, but should be isolated enough to leave out of the overnight portion of the forecast.

See no reason for high temperatures to be any cooler today or tomorrow than they were on Wednesday, and perhaps a degree or two warmer.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

A shortwave moving across the ridging to our west has the potential to produce a cluster of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, potentially lingering into the evening. With steep low level lapse rates and DCAPE values potentially in excess of 1000, there is at least a low end threat of damaging winds if the cluster of storms makes it this far south and east.

Beyond Saturday night, the ridging to our west will work into the area for Sunday into the middle of next week. Precipitable water values could fall below 1.25 inches for a good bit of the area Tuesday and Wednesday. This would suppress most or all thunderstorm development beyond Monday, and at this point, we may actually need to lower Monday's rain chances in later packages.
But with forecast precipitable water values in the 1.4 to 1.6 range on Monday and no significant capping, will let those numbers stand for now.

Saturday's high temperatures will be somewhat dependent on convective timing, but anticipate that most areas away from the coast should get into the lower 90s. By Tuesday and Wednesday, areas away from the coast are likely to get into the mid 90s. The NBM deterministic numbers are running above the global deterministic numbers as well as the ensemble means, and we may need to drop those a degree or two. Dew points will be creeping up a bit by early to mid week into the 70s, with heat index values reaching 105 in some areas. Beyond the forecast range, global ensemble mean temperatures have dropped a few degrees, but we'll wait and see if this is a one-run deviation or a definitive trend. With it getting to mid June, certainly temperatures well into the 90s become much more common.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Diurnal cu field is beginning to build in which will gradually increase cloud coverage through the afternoon as thunderstorms begin to pop up, but VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals barring impacts from storms. Have held off on TEMPOs as the few storms that have popped are not located close enough to terminals at this time. However, expecting SH/TS in VC of terminals within the next couple hours which could carry IFR or lower VSBY and lightning. TS activity will wane after 00 UTC and only impact of note will be potential for some patchy fog at MCB before sunrise.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

All terminals currently VFR, and expected to remain that way through at least the morning hours. Convective threat will be mainly during the afternoon hours, and primarily from the Interstate 10/12 corridor southward. Areal coverage at any one time probably won't be much more than 20-30 percent, and won't be fast moving. Will use VCTS at most terminals from early afternoon through 01-02z. Any flight restrictions due to convection would primarily be visibilities, which could be IFR or lower. Overnight, there will be some potential for light fog after 06z. Have only mentioned it at KMCB, but terminals that have late afternoon rainfall may need to be considered in later packages.

MARINE
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Not much change in the marine pattern with a weak surface pressure gradient. Nocturnal showers/thunderstorms will of course be possible. The usual overnight wind maxima in our eastern waters will probably peak out below 15 knots, so no major concerns with that.

Coastal flood threat continues to diminish as spring tides wane.
Numbers we are looking at describe levels just below our designated flood stage at Waveland at high tide, and have opted for no advisory, as any impacts will be extremely limited or non- existent.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 67 92 68 90 / 10 30 10 50 BTR 71 96 73 93 / 10 40 10 50 ASD 70 94 71 92 / 10 30 10 40 MSY 74 94 76 91 / 10 40 10 40 GPT 71 92 72 89 / 10 30 10 30 PQL 69 94 69 91 / 10 20 10 30

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for New Canal Station, LA

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Airport Reports

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Link to 5 minute data for KNEW

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Wind History from NEW (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana

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