Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Arabi, LA
July 3, 2024 12:47 AM CDT (05:47 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:02 AM Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 2:36 AM Moonset 5:26 PM |
GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 955 Pm Cdt Tue Jul 2 2024
Rest of tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet late this evening, then 1 foot or less.
Wednesday - Southeast winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night - South winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening.
Thursday - South winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers with Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Thursday night - Southwest winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday - West winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Friday night - Southwest winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Saturday - West winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Saturday night - Southwest winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Sunday - Northwest winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Sunday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 955 Pm Cdt Tue Jul 2 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
quiet conditions continue over the coastal waters through the week outside of Thunderstorm development. Winds will generally remain on the light side with low sea heights. Shower and Thunderstorm coverage will remain highest during the morning hours. Locally higher winds and seas will occur with any Thunderstorms, and waterspouts will be possible.
quiet conditions continue over the coastal waters through the week outside of Thunderstorm development. Winds will generally remain on the light side with low sea heights. Shower and Thunderstorm coverage will remain highest during the morning hours. Locally higher winds and seas will occur with any Thunderstorms, and waterspouts will be possible.
Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 030448 AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1148 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
The heat has been the big story today. Air temperatures are in the upper 90s to near 100 in some spots, but heat indices breaching 110 deg F are currently being observed across the CWA due to dew points resting in the upper 70s to near 80 deg F. These abnormally high temperatures are thanks to a large ridge of high pressure over the region causing large-scale subsidence. This has also lowered today's rainfall coverage and confined it to near the coast, particularly in Terrebonne Parish along the sea breeze front, which is weaker than normal due to weak and variable winds across the CWA These showers will dissipate once the sun sets as usual. Overnight lows will once again be above the climatological norm, failing to get below 80 deg F in most regions with the exception of the northshore and southwest Mississippi, who should reach the upper 70s
Game changer, I know
POPs tomorrow will be greater than they were today. Moisture content will increase areawide as the ridge starts to thin somewhat.
Guidance also suggests that sea breeze development may begin earlier than usual due to the onshore as winds become more southerly and orients the boundary more perpendicular to the coastline, optimizing lift. Accordingly, rainfall may begin earlier than normal for the sea breeze. As a whole, temperatures will drop tomorrow as well due to the increased cloud cover with the aforementioned enhanced moisture content, but will still remain very hot with heat indices between 105-110 deg F. A heat advisory has been issued for areas along and north of the I-10/I-12 corridor tomorrow from 10AM through 7PM CT.
A similar story will be in place on Wednesday Night into the Fourth of July - very warm overnight with high POPs and hot temperatures during the day, so make sure you account for this in your outdoor plans. Temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid 90s with heat index values ranging from 105-110 degrees possible. A heat advisory may be needed for Thursday, depending on the moisture and PoPs, so this will need to be looked at more closely in the next forecast cycle. It is very difficult to pin down exact locations for where rain may fall in these situations, so please do not rely on exact CAM reflectivity output and make sure you have access to live radar imagery. Make sure to stay hydrated and limit time outdoors during peak daytime heating hours!
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Heat still continues through the long term although we will have a little bit of a reprieve, relatively speaking at least. On Thursday and Friday we will have some higher PoP chances and coverage due to the ridge currently dominating over the area having a little bit of weakening. This should help keep the temperatures from getting to heat advisory levels in some spots but still can't rule it out especially for places that don't get any convection. It'll definitely be borderline. Out of all the days in the long term, Saturday would be the most likely to have a heat advisories.
Meanwhile, we do continue to monitor Hurricane Beryl. The official forecast track has it moving W/WNW towards Mexico (Yucatan, then towards northern Mexico/south tip of Texas). Beryl will be entering a unfavorable area for hurricanes through so there will be some weakening expected but the eventual track will depend on how much it weakens. Last Sunday morning there is still a long of uncertainty with wide model spread but as of right now Beryl is currently not a concern for the area in the next 7 days. But we are still watching Beryl very closely and we will let everyone know once we have more concrete information.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Expect VFR conditions to prevail tonight and into the morning.
Typical summertime convection is expected to form during the mid- afternoon around 17-18z as we reach the convective temperature.
Due to the pop-up nature of these storms, it's still uncertain where they will form and where they'll go since that will largely be dictated by the boundaries they produce. Thus, only VCTS has been mentioned at most sites tomorrow afternoon and evening. Any storms should dissipate shortly after the sun goes down as they lose the daytime heating and VFR conditions will persist overnight.
MARINE
Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Benign marine conditions expected in the next 7 days. Generally, moderate (10-15kts) and southerly winds expected. There will be the potential for daily morning showers and storms that could pose a hazard to mariners due to lightning.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 98 76 93 75 / 10 10 80 0 BTR 101 81 96 80 / 30 10 90 0 ASD 97 79 93 78 / 30 10 90 10 MSY 96 82 93 80 / 40 10 90 10 GPT 96 80 90 78 / 40 30 80 20 PQL 96 78 93 77 / 30 40 80 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ034>037- 039-046>048-071-076-079>086.
GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ068>071- 077-083>088.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1148 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
The heat has been the big story today. Air temperatures are in the upper 90s to near 100 in some spots, but heat indices breaching 110 deg F are currently being observed across the CWA due to dew points resting in the upper 70s to near 80 deg F. These abnormally high temperatures are thanks to a large ridge of high pressure over the region causing large-scale subsidence. This has also lowered today's rainfall coverage and confined it to near the coast, particularly in Terrebonne Parish along the sea breeze front, which is weaker than normal due to weak and variable winds across the CWA These showers will dissipate once the sun sets as usual. Overnight lows will once again be above the climatological norm, failing to get below 80 deg F in most regions with the exception of the northshore and southwest Mississippi, who should reach the upper 70s
Game changer, I know
POPs tomorrow will be greater than they were today. Moisture content will increase areawide as the ridge starts to thin somewhat.
Guidance also suggests that sea breeze development may begin earlier than usual due to the onshore as winds become more southerly and orients the boundary more perpendicular to the coastline, optimizing lift. Accordingly, rainfall may begin earlier than normal for the sea breeze. As a whole, temperatures will drop tomorrow as well due to the increased cloud cover with the aforementioned enhanced moisture content, but will still remain very hot with heat indices between 105-110 deg F. A heat advisory has been issued for areas along and north of the I-10/I-12 corridor tomorrow from 10AM through 7PM CT.
A similar story will be in place on Wednesday Night into the Fourth of July - very warm overnight with high POPs and hot temperatures during the day, so make sure you account for this in your outdoor plans. Temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid 90s with heat index values ranging from 105-110 degrees possible. A heat advisory may be needed for Thursday, depending on the moisture and PoPs, so this will need to be looked at more closely in the next forecast cycle. It is very difficult to pin down exact locations for where rain may fall in these situations, so please do not rely on exact CAM reflectivity output and make sure you have access to live radar imagery. Make sure to stay hydrated and limit time outdoors during peak daytime heating hours!
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Heat still continues through the long term although we will have a little bit of a reprieve, relatively speaking at least. On Thursday and Friday we will have some higher PoP chances and coverage due to the ridge currently dominating over the area having a little bit of weakening. This should help keep the temperatures from getting to heat advisory levels in some spots but still can't rule it out especially for places that don't get any convection. It'll definitely be borderline. Out of all the days in the long term, Saturday would be the most likely to have a heat advisories.
Meanwhile, we do continue to monitor Hurricane Beryl. The official forecast track has it moving W/WNW towards Mexico (Yucatan, then towards northern Mexico/south tip of Texas). Beryl will be entering a unfavorable area for hurricanes through so there will be some weakening expected but the eventual track will depend on how much it weakens. Last Sunday morning there is still a long of uncertainty with wide model spread but as of right now Beryl is currently not a concern for the area in the next 7 days. But we are still watching Beryl very closely and we will let everyone know once we have more concrete information.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Expect VFR conditions to prevail tonight and into the morning.
Typical summertime convection is expected to form during the mid- afternoon around 17-18z as we reach the convective temperature.
Due to the pop-up nature of these storms, it's still uncertain where they will form and where they'll go since that will largely be dictated by the boundaries they produce. Thus, only VCTS has been mentioned at most sites tomorrow afternoon and evening. Any storms should dissipate shortly after the sun goes down as they lose the daytime heating and VFR conditions will persist overnight.
MARINE
Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Benign marine conditions expected in the next 7 days. Generally, moderate (10-15kts) and southerly winds expected. There will be the potential for daily morning showers and storms that could pose a hazard to mariners due to lightning.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 98 76 93 75 / 10 10 80 0 BTR 101 81 96 80 / 30 10 90 0 ASD 97 79 93 78 / 30 10 90 10 MSY 96 82 93 80 / 40 10 90 10 GPT 96 80 90 78 / 40 30 80 20 PQL 96 78 93 77 / 30 40 80 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ034>037- 039-046>048-071-076-079>086.
GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ068>071- 077-083>088.
GM...None.
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Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KNEW
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KNEW
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KNEW
Wind History graph: NEW
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:24 AM CDT -0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:50 AM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:02 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 12:38 PM CDT 1.51 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:18 PM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:04 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:24 AM CDT -0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:50 AM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:02 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 12:38 PM CDT 1.51 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:18 PM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:04 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| -0.2 |
| 1 am |
| -0.2 |
| 2 am |
| -0.1 |
| 3 am |
| -0 |
| 4 am |
| 0.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.3 |
| 6 am |
| 0.5 |
| 7 am |
| 0.7 |
| 8 am |
| 0.9 |
| 9 am |
| 1.1 |
| 10 am |
| 1.3 |
| 11 am |
| 1.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.2 |
Shell Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:49 AM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:02 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:51 AM CDT 1.77 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:17 PM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:03 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:49 AM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:02 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:51 AM CDT 1.77 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:17 PM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:03 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| -0.2 |
| 1 am |
| -0.2 |
| 2 am |
| -0.1 |
| 3 am |
| 0.1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.3 |
| 5 am |
| 0.5 |
| 6 am |
| 0.8 |
| 7 am |
| 1 |
| 8 am |
| 1.3 |
| 9 am |
| 1.5 |
| 10 am |
| 1.6 |
| 11 am |
| 1.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.4 |
New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA,
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