Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Arabi, LA
November 30, 2023 12:35 PM CST (18:35 UTC)
Sunrise 6:36AM Sunset 5:01PM Moonrise 7:57PM Moonset 9:51AM
GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 1050 Am Cst Thu Nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 3 pm this afternoon to 6 pm cst this evening...
.gale watch in effect from 6 pm cst this evening through late tonight...
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Friday afternoon...
Rest of today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers.
Tonight..Southeast winds near 20 knots with gusts up to 40 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers after midnight.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. A chance of showers.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
.small craft advisory in effect from 3 pm this afternoon to 6 pm cst this evening...
.gale watch in effect from 6 pm cst this evening through late tonight...
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Friday afternoon...
Rest of today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers.
Tonight..Southeast winds near 20 knots with gusts up to 40 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers after midnight.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. A chance of showers.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 1050 Am Cst Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
a return to a moderate onshore flow is still expected to become strong onshore flow later today and tonight. We could even see gales tonight and early Friday. Moderate onshore flow will persist into the weekend as a series of low pressure systems pass north of the waters. Headlines are already in place.
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
a return to a moderate onshore flow is still expected to become strong onshore flow later today and tonight. We could even see gales tonight and early Friday. Moderate onshore flow will persist into the weekend as a series of low pressure systems pass north of the waters. Headlines are already in place.
Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KLIX 301141 AAA AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 541 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 125 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Slightly cooler than we initially expected this morning across the region, especially over the east with temps dropping down into the lower 30s over at Pascagoula. Surface flow will begin to transition today as the high continues to migrate east and low level pressure gradient tightens across the area bringing with it warm and moist air advection. Aloft, the pattern will shift from a progressive zonal flow to a more active southwesterly flow by this afternoon. Under an area of relatively strong difluence/upper level support and perhaps isentropic upglide downstream of a surface warm front, expect widespread elevated showers and thunderstorms to develop over Texas and move eastward toward our western tier this afternoon. We will keep rain chances ongoing across the CWFA, but for the first system expect the highest POPs to reside along and west of the I55 corridor. A strong upper level short wave is expected to move northeastward within the flow around a ridge over the Western Caribbean. As the feature moves downstream, much of the ascent goes with it, which should limit convection strength a bit.
Early Friday we may see a bit of a break in rainfall across the region, however, a weak low pressure system within the natural baroclinic zone east of KBRO will develop and move along a stalled front draped over the region. This feature along with an enhancement of low level flow will increase stratiform precip across the central Gulf on Friday with a somewhat decent soaking rainfall across much of the CWFA.
Going further into the weekend, additional rain chances will occur with additional H5 impulses within the mean southwesterly flow aloft. Overall, models have still had trouble resolving temporally how the front moves beyond Sunday morning. Each run they are showing a progressive or a slower, less transient solution. At this juncture, decided to run with consensus blends through the second half of the weekend.
As for our severe and hydro potential, overall both seem to be on the lower-end, although rainfall rates along and west of I55 with the initial wave could be a bit higher. Otherwise, with antecedent conditions and lackluster rates within the stratiform rain shield(s), expect hydro concerns to overall decrease in time, especially outside of convection. As for severe weather, instability will increase with low level moistening in time. We'll need to watch for two potential timeframe...one late this evening and overnight (again west of I55) along the warm front, especially if storms root into the boundary layer and take advantage of slightly better upper ascent and low level vort. And the second will be Friday afternoon and evening as the LLJ enhances across the region. Although the overall upper level forcing is poor, still cannot rule out a strong wind gusts or a brief spin-up or two with effective SRH hovering right around 200m2s2. The only other concern will be with the increasing pressure gradient. Did consider a wind advisory along and south of I10 in Louisiana, however, forecast winds did come in a bit weaker this cycle so we will let the day shift take another look before a decision has to be made in the following package. (Frye)
LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 125 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
By late Sunday and early next week we say goodbye to the surface front as an H5 trough begins to kick the front downstream away from the region. With the upper flow regime and the origin of the upper trough being Pacific in nature, expect that temperatures will cool, but not be atypically cold in the medium range post frontal. Starting the new workweek, expect conditions to be rather pleasant. Cloudiness quickly decreases with a strong convergent flow aloft along with surface high pressure spreading into the area from the ArkLaTex region. (Frye)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
CIGs will lower later today as showers moves into the region from the southwest. Kept most mention of TS minimal for now, but this could be adjusted, especially for later this evening. Otherwise, southerly winds will be on the increase and become gusty. LLWS has been added to most terminals late tonight. Overall, VFR will transition from west to east to MVFR and perhaps lower in the heaviest shower activity tonight. (Frye)
MARINE
Issued at 125 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Increasing onshore flow will continue to increase today on the backside of the departing high pressure system. This will allow for hazardous marine conditions to develop later this afternoon for all coastal waters. The western Gulf waters will see some wind gusts up to gale force at times overnight...so upgraded the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning respectively. Kept the Gale watch going through the morning such that day shift can upgrade given the borderline nature or reaching gale conditions over the tidal lakes. Eventually, a frontal boundary will stall over the region, which should allow the surface pressure gradient to relax allowing for winds and seas to subside a bit through the second half of the upcoming weekend. (Frye)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 62 56 75 63 / 50 90 50 80 BTR 66 60 78 66 / 70 90 50 80 ASD 66 58 76 64 / 40 80 60 80 MSY 67 62 77 66 / 60 70 70 80 GPT 66 59 74 63 / 20 70 70 80 PQL 68 57 76 63 / 10 60 80 80
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ530.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Friday for GMZ530.
Gale Watch from this evening through late tonight for GMZ530.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM CST Friday for GMZ532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ550-552-570-572.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ550-552- 570-572.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM CST Friday for GMZ550-552-570-572.
MS...None.
GM... Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM CST Friday for GMZ534-536-538-555-557-575-577.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ552-570-572.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ552-570- 572.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM CST Friday for GMZ552-570-572.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 541 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 125 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Slightly cooler than we initially expected this morning across the region, especially over the east with temps dropping down into the lower 30s over at Pascagoula. Surface flow will begin to transition today as the high continues to migrate east and low level pressure gradient tightens across the area bringing with it warm and moist air advection. Aloft, the pattern will shift from a progressive zonal flow to a more active southwesterly flow by this afternoon. Under an area of relatively strong difluence/upper level support and perhaps isentropic upglide downstream of a surface warm front, expect widespread elevated showers and thunderstorms to develop over Texas and move eastward toward our western tier this afternoon. We will keep rain chances ongoing across the CWFA, but for the first system expect the highest POPs to reside along and west of the I55 corridor. A strong upper level short wave is expected to move northeastward within the flow around a ridge over the Western Caribbean. As the feature moves downstream, much of the ascent goes with it, which should limit convection strength a bit.
Early Friday we may see a bit of a break in rainfall across the region, however, a weak low pressure system within the natural baroclinic zone east of KBRO will develop and move along a stalled front draped over the region. This feature along with an enhancement of low level flow will increase stratiform precip across the central Gulf on Friday with a somewhat decent soaking rainfall across much of the CWFA.
Going further into the weekend, additional rain chances will occur with additional H5 impulses within the mean southwesterly flow aloft. Overall, models have still had trouble resolving temporally how the front moves beyond Sunday morning. Each run they are showing a progressive or a slower, less transient solution. At this juncture, decided to run with consensus blends through the second half of the weekend.
As for our severe and hydro potential, overall both seem to be on the lower-end, although rainfall rates along and west of I55 with the initial wave could be a bit higher. Otherwise, with antecedent conditions and lackluster rates within the stratiform rain shield(s), expect hydro concerns to overall decrease in time, especially outside of convection. As for severe weather, instability will increase with low level moistening in time. We'll need to watch for two potential timeframe...one late this evening and overnight (again west of I55) along the warm front, especially if storms root into the boundary layer and take advantage of slightly better upper ascent and low level vort. And the second will be Friday afternoon and evening as the LLJ enhances across the region. Although the overall upper level forcing is poor, still cannot rule out a strong wind gusts or a brief spin-up or two with effective SRH hovering right around 200m2s2. The only other concern will be with the increasing pressure gradient. Did consider a wind advisory along and south of I10 in Louisiana, however, forecast winds did come in a bit weaker this cycle so we will let the day shift take another look before a decision has to be made in the following package. (Frye)
LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 125 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
By late Sunday and early next week we say goodbye to the surface front as an H5 trough begins to kick the front downstream away from the region. With the upper flow regime and the origin of the upper trough being Pacific in nature, expect that temperatures will cool, but not be atypically cold in the medium range post frontal. Starting the new workweek, expect conditions to be rather pleasant. Cloudiness quickly decreases with a strong convergent flow aloft along with surface high pressure spreading into the area from the ArkLaTex region. (Frye)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
CIGs will lower later today as showers moves into the region from the southwest. Kept most mention of TS minimal for now, but this could be adjusted, especially for later this evening. Otherwise, southerly winds will be on the increase and become gusty. LLWS has been added to most terminals late tonight. Overall, VFR will transition from west to east to MVFR and perhaps lower in the heaviest shower activity tonight. (Frye)
MARINE
Issued at 125 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Increasing onshore flow will continue to increase today on the backside of the departing high pressure system. This will allow for hazardous marine conditions to develop later this afternoon for all coastal waters. The western Gulf waters will see some wind gusts up to gale force at times overnight...so upgraded the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning respectively. Kept the Gale watch going through the morning such that day shift can upgrade given the borderline nature or reaching gale conditions over the tidal lakes. Eventually, a frontal boundary will stall over the region, which should allow the surface pressure gradient to relax allowing for winds and seas to subside a bit through the second half of the upcoming weekend. (Frye)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 62 56 75 63 / 50 90 50 80 BTR 66 60 78 66 / 70 90 50 80 ASD 66 58 76 64 / 40 80 60 80 MSY 67 62 77 66 / 60 70 70 80 GPT 66 59 74 63 / 20 70 70 80 PQL 68 57 76 63 / 10 60 80 80
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ530.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Friday for GMZ530.
Gale Watch from this evening through late tonight for GMZ530.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM CST Friday for GMZ532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ550-552-570-572.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ550-552- 570-572.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM CST Friday for GMZ550-552-570-572.
MS...None.
GM... Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM CST Friday for GMZ534-536-538-555-557-575-577.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ552-570-572.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ552-570- 572.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM CST Friday for GMZ552-570-572.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA | 4 mi | 78 min | SE 5.1G | 59°F | 30.04 | |||
| CARL1 | 9 mi | 78 min | 60°F | |||||
| SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA | 22 mi | 78 min | SE 14G | 53°F | 30.06 | |||
| BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA | 27 mi | 78 min | 56°F | 30.04 | ||||
| WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS | 43 mi | 78 min | E 13G | 55°F | 30.10 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KNEW LAKEFRONT,LA | 1 sm | 42 min | ESE 14 | 10 sm | Overcast | 61°F | 52°F | 72% | 30.01 | |
| KMSY LOUIS ARMSTRONG NEW ORLEANS INTL,LA | 12 sm | 42 min | SE 14G21 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 61°F | 54°F | 77% | 30.02 | |
| KNBG NEW ORLEANS NAS JRB/ALVIN CALLENDER FIELD,LA | 14 sm | 40 min | SE 08 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 61°F | 54°F | 77% | 30.03 |
Wind History from NEW
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (on/off) Help
Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:54 AM CST 1.43 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:37 AM CST Sunrise
Thu -- 09:50 AM CST Moonset
Thu -- 04:23 PM CST -0.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:59 PM CST Sunset
Thu -- 07:56 PM CST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:54 AM CST 1.43 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:37 AM CST Sunrise
Thu -- 09:50 AM CST Moonset
Thu -- 04:23 PM CST -0.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:59 PM CST Sunset
Thu -- 07:56 PM CST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.9 |
| 1 am |
| 1.1 |
| 2 am |
| 1.3 |
| 3 am |
| 1.4 |
| 4 am |
| 1.4 |
| 5 am |
| 1.4 |
| 6 am |
| 1.3 |
| 7 am |
| 1.2 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 0.7 |
| 10 am |
| 0.5 |
| 11 am |
| 0.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.5 |
Shell Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:07 AM CST 1.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:35 AM CST Sunrise
Thu -- 09:49 AM CST Moonset
Thu -- 03:25 PM CST -0.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:58 PM CST Sunset
Thu -- 07:55 PM CST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:07 AM CST 1.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:35 AM CST Sunrise
Thu -- 09:49 AM CST Moonset
Thu -- 03:25 PM CST -0.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:58 PM CST Sunset
Thu -- 07:55 PM CST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.3 |
| 1 am |
| 1.5 |
| 2 am |
| 1.6 |
| 3 am |
| 1.7 |
| 4 am |
| 1.7 |
| 5 am |
| 1.6 |
| 6 am |
| 1.4 |
| 7 am |
| 1.2 |
| 8 am |
| 0.9 |
| 9 am |
| 0.6 |
| 10 am |
| 0.3 |
| 11 am |
| 0.1 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.8 |
New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE