Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fruit Cove, FL

SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 154 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Coastal troughs over the adjacent coastal waters will bring breezy onshore ENE winds and waves of showers and isolated thunderstorm potential to the local area through the weekend. Convection will have a diurnal pattern, with morning showers near coastal areas expanding inland (westward) through the day. Aloft, an upper ridge will nudge southward across south FL late Saturday into Sunday as a long wave trough begins to deepen across SE GA, extending into the Gulf of Mexico Sunday night. As this upper level trough and associated forcing and deep layer moisture increase over the area aloft from the WSW, stronger isentropic lift will develop as low level flow continues from the ENE. This will set the stage for an increase in rainfall coverage and amounts Sunday, especially for some coastal areas where training bands of heavy rainfall may set up Sunday into Sunday night. Included patchy late night fog each night for far inland areas of the Suwanee River Valley.

Temperatures will trend near normal Saturday for highs, then trend below normal Sunday with increase cloud cover and rain chances.
Mild above normal lows will range in the mid 60s across inland SE GA to the mid 70s across NE FL and coastal areas.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 154 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

A generally dry forecast for locations north of the Interstate 10 corridor while locations across north-central FL and the local Atlantic coast could see periods of locally heavy rainfall, especially by mid-week, as an area of low pressure approaches the FL west coast from the Gulf of Mexico. To the north, surface high pressure will build north and northeast of the region next week, maintaining onshore easterly flow, but as the GOMEX low approaches, the local pressure gradient between the high to the north and the low to the south will increase. Blustery onshore winds will increase mid to late week with coastal and marine hazards increasing across the local area including the frequency of rip currents, beach erosion and tidal flooding. Waves of showers and potentially localized heavy rainfall will focus along our coastal counties and extended across portions of of our north- central FL zones, but where the low approaches and possibly crosses peninsula will ultimately dictate the rainfall footprint.
Although the extent of rainfall is less certain late next week, deteriorating coastal and marine conditions are likely, and we will begin to message these hazards.

Temperatures will trend near to below normal with increased storminess tempering high temperatures and a cooler NNE flow over SE GA and portions of the Suwannee River Valley, lows will range in the upper 50s to low 60s. A refreshing taste of fall like weather.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 717 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Developing onshore showers will move inland through the day and will be west of coastal sites by late afternoon. The area around KGNV will have a chance to destabilize today, ahead of the showers arriving there, so while a few storms can not be ruled across the area today the greatest chance will be at the KGNV TAF site this afternoon. Conditions are expected to trend VFR tonight with ceilings dropping to MVFR levels overnight and into early Saturday morning.



MARINE
Issued at 154 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

High pressure will be north of the region through Saturday, with a weak trough over the coastal waters. The high will build more toward the northeast Sunday, with weak troughing remaining. High pressure will be located to the north northwest during the first half of next week, as a boundary develops and lays out across central FL.

Rip Currents: High through Saturday

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 154 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Rivers: Major river flooding is forecast to impact the Alapaha River in Statenville this weekend. The upper Altamaha river at Charlotteville and Baxley was falling from a crest in Minor Flood stage with the flood wave now reaching Doctortown. Minor flooding is expected at downstream river points including Everett City this weekend. The Satilla is expected to rise into Minor stage at Atkinson early next week. As flood waters travel down the Suwannee River, backwater flooding up the Sante Fe including at Three Rivers Estates is possible by late weekend.

Tidal Flooding: The combination of persistent onshore flow and the approach of the annual high Spring Tides mid-month will continue to elevate local water level departures for tidal locations this weekend and next week. Most locations will rise into Action stage today, but by the weekend a Coastal Flood Advisory may be needed especially for portions of the St. Johns River where tides will become trapped and seiche north to south from JAX to Welaka.
Stronger onshore flow next week will likely raise tidal flooding levels further and we will monitor for potential Coastal Flood Watch potential.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 83 70 84 68 / 50 30 10 10 SSI 84 75 82 73 / 60 20 50 30 JAX 86 73 83 73 / 50 20 50 40 SGJ 87 76 85 74 / 40 10 40 40 GNV 89 73 85 72 / 30 10 40 20 OCF 91 74 87 74 / 30 10 30 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133- 138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166.

AM...None.