Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Marks, FL

NEAR TERM
(Through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

Patchy fog is likely until around 8 AM ET/7 AM CT Friday morning, with skies turning partly to mostly sunny by late morning, as low temperatures range from the mid-60s to around 70F. A hot air mass will continue to overspread the region on Friday as ridging builds aloft. Based on temperature trends today, have blended toward the 75th percentile of guidance on Friday, with highs in the lower to middle 90s away from the Gulf Coast. The daily record high at TLH on Friday 5/16 is 95F set in 1962, and that is in jeopardy, with the latest probabilistic guidance showing a 50% chance of at least tying the record. Stay tuned! The West-Southwest 850 hPa flow will aid in turbulent mixing Friday afternoon, which will tend to drop dew points into the lower to middle 60s away from the Gulf coast around the time of max heating. This would limit max heat indices/ apparent temperatures to the middle to upper 90s. Otherwise, a dry day is on tap. Despite nice weather, a high risk of rip currents will continue for the Bay, Walton, and Gulf County beaches. Make sure to heed the beach flags and advice of beach safety officials.

SHORT TERM
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

An upper level trough will pass through the eastern US well north of the forecast area but this feature will drag a weakening cold front into the deep south. While much of the area will be quite dry, and the front likely won't reach the forecast area, a few isolated showers and possibly a rumble of thunder could enter the forecast Saturday afternoon. If we squeeze out any showers, it would mostly likely be across our southeast Alabama counties and northeast into some of our northern most counties of Quitman, Randolph, and Early counties and locations east-northeast of them.

With dry conditions forecast, temperatures will likely be the hottest of the upcoming warm spell. Widespread mid-90s are forecast across the entirety of the forecast region except for perhaps areas within 10 to 20 miles of the coast where south and southwesterly seabreezes will keep conditions cooler and in the upper 80s.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

The front from Saturday continues to weaken and stall but a remnant boundary, some low-level moisture, hot temperatures, and seabreezes might be enough to squeeze out a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon across our Georgia and southeast Alabama counties. From Monday through Tuesday, expect mostly dry and hot conditions to continue as upper level ridging becomes reestablished over the deep south. By the middle of next week, ensembles are suggesting a little break in the heat as a trough swings through the south. This would also bring a return to scattered showers and storms to the area in the afternoon.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 753 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

Low-level southwest flow will keep a moist boundary layer air mass in place, but mid-level air above the boundary layer will remain somewhat dry. So the low-level moisture will support low cloud and development over the Panhandle around 05z-06z, rapidly expanding inland from there. The clouds could lower enough toward sunrise to cause BR, or possibly a brief bout with FG at sunrise. Low clouds will quickly lift and scatter out starting about 1-2 hours after sunrise, giving way to an afternoon with SCT coverage of high-based fair weather cumulus.

MARINE
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

High pressure will build over the marine zone leading to somewhat favorable boating conditions with seas around 2-3 feet and southwesterly winds around 10 kts. The afternoon sea breeze will kick up each afternoon, boosting winds to nearly 15 kts along nearshore waters (out to 20 nautical miles). Dry weather is expected to continue for the next several days.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

A period of mainly dry weather is expected over the next several days with highs in the lower to middle 90s away from the Gulf Coast.
Minimum afternoon RH will dip into the mid-30s to mid-40s over the next couple of days, with southwest winds locally enhanced closer to the coast due to the seabreeze. The main fire weather concern will be dispersions, which could possibly be high on Friday over parts of Southeast AL and Southwest GA, and are likely to be high on Saturday over much of the region away from the Gulf coast. Meanwhile, maximum heat indices/apparent temperatures will be in the mid-90s to around 100 each day.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

One river, the Choctawhatchee River, will crest in Action Stage over the next few days. No significant rainfall is expected for the extended period, resulting in no flooding concerns.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 68 95 69 95 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 72 84 72 86 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 70 92 69 93 / 0 0 0 10 Albany 69 94 69 93 / 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 68 96 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 66 90 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 72 83 72 84 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ108-112- 114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for GMZ735.