Friday, September25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Marks, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 7:30PM Friday September 25, 2020 9:54 AM EDT (13:54 UTC) Moonrise 3:04PMMoonset 12:30AM Illumination 59% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 204 Am Edt Fri Sep 25 2020 /104 Am Cdt Fri Sep 25 2020/
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon, then becoming south 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters smooth.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Seas 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..South winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 204 Am Edt Fri Sep 25 2020
Synopsis.. Boating conditions will predominantly be favorable through the early half of the period with winds between 5-10 knots through Sunday. This will generally lead to seas around 2-3 feet occasionally dropping down to 1 foot. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the early morning period today will provide an occasional increase in winds and waves. A rather robust cold front for september is expected to impact the region in the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. Winds will become southwesterly and increase to around 15 knots ahead of the front, then shift out of the northwest behind the frontal passage. Cautionary or borderline advisory criteria may be met during this time.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Marks, FL
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location: 30.08, -84     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 251059 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 659 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

UPDATE. Quick update to cover some of the patchy fog in the Tri-State area this morning. This should mix out with the incoming precip and/or dissipate around 8 AM. The remainder of the forecast is on track.

AVIATION. [Through 12Z Saturday]

MVFR/IFR restrictions at TLH and ABY will slowly improve to VFR by this afternoon. Brief MVFR at DHN and possibly ECP this AM. The highest chance of TSRA today remains at ABY, TLH, and VLD. Southerly winds gradually veer to westerly today, mainly 10 kts or less for all terminals, then become light and variable tonight. Expect additional restrictions outside of ECP in fog mainly after 08z.

PREV DISCUSSION [252 AM EDT].

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

A surface trough will move slowly across the region today and serve as the primary focus for precipitation. Highest PoPs around 60 pct will focus west of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers this morning, then shift east of this area during the afternoon. The air mass remains most for this time of year, with Preciptable Water values up to 1.9 inches. The higher resolution guidance and ensembles are focusing the heaviest precip from portions of the FL Big Bend into the southern tier of our Southwest GA counties, where some isolated rainfall amounts could approach 3 inches in spots, particularly where cells train invof the slow moving trough. This could lead to isolated minor flooding of urban and low-lying areas with poor drainage. Thunderstorm potential will be greatest from the Flint River Valley southeastward into the FL Big Bend this afternoon and evening, with Mixed Layer CAPE around 2k J/kg, and Bulk Shear up to 30 kts promoting some organization. While mid-level lapse rates remain poor, this activity may be enhanced by drier air advecting in aloft, as long as the dry air does not overwhelm the updrafts. Compared to yesterday, the low-level shear that supported the tornado threat is much lower, so the primary threat today is scattered strong wind gusts.

For tonight, the surface trough will clear most of the area, with winds becoming light and variable. There will be considerable low- level moisture remaining under clear skies. The setup is conducive for patchy fog, with the greatest coverage expected where precip occurs today, mainly across portions of Southwest GA into the FL Big Bend.

Temperatures will be near seasonal levels for highs, making into the 80s today, and slightly above average for lows tonight, from the mid-60s to lower 70s.

SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday].

A weak upper level trough is expected to propagate out of south Texas and strengthen as it moves into the lower Mississippi valley by late Saturday evening. As the upper level trough makes its approach to the region on Sunday, it will provide enough upper level forcing for ascent to develop some scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region. Robust instability is not expected to be present across the area on Sunday, therefore among other reasons these storms are not expected to be severe. Nevertheless, a general 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain are not out of the question for the region with near 2 inch PW values, locally higher amounts will be possible with any training storms. Fortunately, the upper level trough is expected to quickly exit the region as an amplified long wave trough exits the western conus by Sunday. High temperatures will generally remain in the upper 80s across the region with lows falling into the low 70s.

LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday].

The previously discussed weak upper level trough over the lower Mississippi valley is expected to quickly get strung out and pushed to the northeast as an aforementioned robust upper level long wave trough digs equatorward into the central conus. Currently there are subtle differences between the GFS and ECMWF models with the expected long wave trough next Monday/Tuesday. The GFS has a more transient long wave trough with a strong cold front moving through the region, while the ECMWF develops a strong cut- off low over Louisiana that lingers over the lower Mississippi valley through mid week before exiting the region on Thursday. Given the uncertainty and timing differences between the too model solutions, it is still too early to determine any potential severe weather mode and threat. Nevertheless, the first major cold front of the fall season is likely as a cooler and drier airmass pushes south into our region from the northwest behind the cold front either by mid week or late next week.

The first few days in the long term period will be warm with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the low 70s. As the front passes the region high temperatures will fall drastically into the mid 70s across the region with lows possibly down into the mid to upper 50s across the area.

MARINE.

Boating conditions will predominantly be favorable through the early half of the period with winds between 5-10 knots through Sunday. This will generally lead to seas around 2-3 feet occasionally dropping down to 1 foot. A chance of showers and thunderstorms through the early morning period today will provide an occasional increase in winds and waves. A rather robust cold front for September is expected to impact the region in the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. Winds will become southwesterly and increase to around 15 knots ahead of the front, then shift out of the northwest behind the frontal passage. Cautionary or borderline advisory criteria may be met during this time.

FIRE WEATHER.

Low dispersions are expected across portions of the area today. Otherwise, there are no other fire weather concerns over the next several days.

HYDROLOGY.

Choctawhatchee and Chipola Rivers remain in moderate flood stage. However, area rivers continue to slowly fall, with the exception of the lower Apalachicola area rivers, and this trend will continue through the rest of the week. Rain chances remain elevated Sat before drying out again over the weekend. Rain chances return early next week but forecast rain totals should be low. The five day rainfall forecast totals will generally be an inch or less. However, isolated amounts on any given day with high precipitable water and slow storm motions could yield could be higher.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 86 71 87 70 87 / 60 20 10 0 30 Panama City 84 71 85 72 83 / 40 0 10 0 30 Dothan 84 66 85 67 83 / 30 10 10 0 30 Albany 85 68 85 68 86 / 60 20 10 0 30 Valdosta 87 71 87 70 88 / 60 30 10 0 30 Cross City 89 72 89 71 89 / 30 0 20 0 30 Apalachicola 84 72 84 72 83 / 40 0 10 0 30

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA . None. AL . None. GM . None.

UPDATE . LF NEAR TERM . LF SHORT TERM . Bunker LONG TERM . Bunker AVIATION . LF MARINE . Bunker FIRE WEATHER . LF HYDROLOGY . Barry/IG3


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 15 mi120 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 76°F 1013.4 hPa
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 28 mi54 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 76°F 1015.2 hPa (+1.3)75°F
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 51 mi69 min SSE 1.9 1016 hPa

Wind History for Apalachicola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for K40J

Wind History from 40J (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6SW5CalmNW10CalmCalmW4SW4CalmCalmNE3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Aucilla River entrance, Florida
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Aucilla River entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:01 AM EDT     2.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:17 AM EDT     3.01 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:00 PM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:55 PM EDT     2.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.32.22.32.42.62.82.9332.92.72.41.91.410.70.60.711.41.92.32.5

Tide / Current Tables for St. Marks River Entrance, Florida
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St. Marks River Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:56 AM EDT     2.40 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:14 AM EDT     3.24 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:55 PM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:52 PM EDT     2.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.42.42.52.62.833.23.23.23.12.92.521.51.10.70.60.81.11.62.12.52.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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Gulf Stream Current



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