Monday, October26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Marks, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:46AMSunset 6:55PM Monday October 26, 2020 5:50 PM EDT (21:50 UTC) Moonrise 3:43PMMoonset 2:16AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 1044 Am Edt Mon Oct 26 2020
Rest of today..East winds 10 knots becoming northeast around 5 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 2 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Tuesday..East winds 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..East winds 15 knots. Seas 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 15 knots. Seas 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day.
Wednesday night..South winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..South winds 15 knots. Seas 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers through the night. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 1044 Am Edt Mon Oct 26 2020
Synopsis.. Boating conditions begin to deteriorate Tues afternoon into the evening as swells generated by zeta produce increasing waveheights to our waters. A small craft advisory will likely need to be issued for Tues night. Tropical storm conditions are also possible Wed night into early Thurs morning across our far western waters near and offshore from walton county to panama city beach. Winds and seas begin relaxing on Fri, with a return to more favorable boating conditions this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Marks, FL
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location: 30.08, -84     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 261755 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 155 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020

AVIATION. [Through 18Z Tuesday]

East-northeast winds at 5-10 kts will prevail as surface high pressure remains in place. MVFR conds will begin to move in during the early morning hours as temps drop towards the dew point. IFR conds will develop and visibilities are expected to drop to 4SM at all terminals except ECP. Ceilings will gradually lift throughout the day tomorrow after sunrise transitioning to MVFR and VFR conds.

PREV DISCUSSION [646 AM EDT].

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

Deep layer ridging is expected to prevail today across the region. The low-level ridge will stretch down the Eastern Seaboard with a very low-level density gradient where surface based moisture from the Atlantic is channeled between the ridge and the low pressure in the western Atlantic. Above this plume of low-level moisture, dry air is present through the depth of the column. Some deeper level moisture may creep into the southeast Big Bend and adjacent Gulf waters on the veering flow ahead of Zeta. In this area, weak upslope flow over the surface ridge/density gradient/differential heating boundary could result in a few showers, but showers are most likely to remain confined to land areas further south in Florida. Expect highs to range from the low 80s in southern AL/GA to the upper 80s across the Florida Big Bend. Overnight lows will follow a similar pattern with upper 60s to the north and lower 70s south. Rainfall should remain confined to the northeast Gulf overnight.

SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday].

After a brief period of dry conditions the previous couple days, rain chances return Tues as Zeta (likely a hurricane by then) works in tandem with a subtropical ridge to advect moisture across our area from the southern Gulf. The ridge will also serve as the primary steering mechanism for Zeta in the beginning of the short term, where the system is forecast to move generally northward. By Wed however, there is a fair amount of uncertainty in the track as it will depend heavily on the timing evolution of two phasing upper- level waves near southern CA/Baja. The 0Z ECMWF and GFS runs are in good agreement on a large cutoff low developing over the southwest US and ejecting across the southern Plains. This feature should cause Zeta to make a right turn just before landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf coast at or near hurricane strength late Wed afternoon/early evening. It should be noted that the GFS solution has shifted westward, which is encouraging to see from a model convergence perspective. The aforementioned cutoff low is also forecast to impart west/southwest shear on Zeta, resulting in potential displacement of convection away from the center. If this occurs, then peripheral impacts will be more likely for portions of our CWA in the form of heavy rain, gusty winds, isolated severe weather, and hazardous marine & beach conditions. However, it is still too soon to determine the magnitude of these impacts.

Although the 2am EDT NHC advisory shows us outside of the forecast cone, tropical storm force winds (at least 39 mph) could arrive as early as Wed morning. As of 11pm Sun night, there is a 2 in 10 chance of sustained tropical storm force winds for points in southeast AL and the western FL Panhandle, and a 1 in 10 or less for points in our remaining areas to the east. Regardless, expect showers, with the potential for pockets of heavy rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms through the near-term period. Best precip chances are across our western zones. Increasing moisture from east- to-southeast flow will make for warm/muggy conditions, with high temperatures in the 80s and lows in the low 70s.

LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday].

Zeta is expected to either be close to landfall or just inland somewhere over the southern Gulf states to start the long-term period. The subtropical ridge to the east, combined with the progressing cutoff low to the west should cause Zeta to accelerate into the lower TN Valley and quickly get absorbed by a frontal system on Thurs. The axis of rainfall follows along and east of Zeta's general track, with chance PoPs across much of the area Wed night through Thurs (especially north and west of Tallahassee). Tropical storm conditions are possible across southeast AL and the western FL Panhandle until 12Z Thurs. Thereafter, rain chances diminish, but wrap-around moisture from the departing Zeta could produce some lingering showers into early Fri morning.

Mostly dry and cool conditions, with north/northwest post-frontal winds, prevail this weekend. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s and lows generally ranging from mid 50s to low 60s.

MARINE.

Boating conditions begin to deteriorate Tues afternoon into the evening as swells generated by Zeta produce increasing waveheights to our waters. A Small Craft Advisory will likely need to be issued for Tues night. Tropical storm conditions are also possible Wed night into early Thurs morning across our far western waters near and offshore from Walton county to the Bay/Walton county border. Winds and seas begin relaxing on Fri, with a return to more favorable boating conditions this weekend.

FIRE WEATHER.

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days.

HYDROLOGY.

Although peripheral rain impacts from Zeta are expected, the progressive nature of the storm (or hurricane) and track west of our area, does not yield amounts that warrant flood concerns at this time. The 7-Day QPF estimates generally show about 0.5 inches or less. However, these values are subject to change as Zeta's forecast becomes narrowed down over the next day or so. Stay tuned.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 71 85 72 86 74 / 10 40 30 40 30 Panama City 73 83 73 83 75 / 0 60 30 40 40 Dothan 67 81 69 81 71 / 0 50 40 60 50 Albany 67 82 69 83 72 / 0 30 20 40 30 Valdosta 69 84 70 86 72 / 10 40 20 40 20 Cross City 73 88 72 89 73 / 10 40 30 30 20 Apalachicola 74 82 74 82 75 / 0 50 20 40 30

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Franklin.

GA . None. AL . None. GM . None.

NEAR TERM . Harrigan SHORT TERM . IG3 LONG TERM . IG3 AVIATION . Oliver MARINE . IG3 FIRE WEATHER . Harrigan HYDROLOGY . IG3


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 15 mi116 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 84°F 1014.3 hPa
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 28 mi50 min ENE 8 G 9.9 84°F 1015.2 hPa (-1.0)71°F
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 51 mi65 min ESE 8 1016 hPa

Wind History for Apalachicola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for K40J

Wind History from 40J (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Aucilla River entrance, Florida
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Aucilla River entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:44 AM EDT     1.53 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:58 AM EDT     2.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:23 PM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.62.321.71.61.51.61.92.22.52.82.92.82.41.91.410.80.81.11.62.12.6

Tide / Current Tables for St. Marks River Entrance, Florida
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St. Marks River Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:39 AM EDT     1.66 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:55 AM EDT     3.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:18 PM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.82.52.21.91.71.71.82.12.42.733.12.92.62.11.51.10.80.91.21.72.32.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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Gulf Stream Current



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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.