Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Orange, TX

DISCUSSION
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Evening SFC analysis showed high pressure centered over the north central Gulf coast, w/ southerly flow extending up through about 825mb per the KLCH 00z RAOB. GOES blended TPW product showed a plume of deep MSTR along the western flank of this high pressure, with PWATs of 2+ inches across SE TX/SW LA. Aloft, upper air analysis showed a ridge centered over the NW Gulf.

Isolated showers continue to stream north across SE TX and the NW Gulf waters within the deep MSTR pool, and this activity is expected to persist through the overnight hours, with an uptick in both coverage/intensity forecast after daybreak tomorrow as diurnal instability increases. Still not expecting widespread wetting rains that will dent the ongoing drought very much, especially given that the highest rain chances reside over areas that saw the rains brought by Edouard, but some localized amounts of around a half inch or more are possible in the heavier downpours. The uptick in clouds and precipitation will moderate highs a bit tomorrow across SE TX and into SW LA, with readings in the mid/upper 80s, with much of central/south central LA baking in the lower to mid 90s.

TUE night into WED, the SFC ridge is progged to expand westward, shunting the MSTR plume off to the west, while the upper level ridging builds overhead. Dry weather with the warmest temperatures of the forecast period are expected, with highs in the lower to mid 90s areawide. The deep layer ridge will be nudged off to the east on THU by an approaching upper level trough, which will help push a dry CDFNT through the area on FRI, bringing a much cooler and drier airmass into the region. There is still some spread in guidance to contend with in terms of just how cool it will get, but current NBM progs show highs around 80 by SAT with lows in the 50s areawide SUN morning.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Pilots flying in and out of Beaumont, Lake Charles, and Alexandria will need to monitor radar for shower and thunderstorm activity through early this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed in response to increasing moisture from the Gulf of America. Lafayette and New Iberia airports will likely remain dry through today.

South winds around 10 knots will be common into the early evening hours, dropping off a bit as we progress into the overnight hours.

Safe Travels.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Scattered showers and storms will begin to develop across SE TX and SW LA later later this morning, occasionally passing near/over BPT and LCH through the afternoon. AEX may see some of this convection spread north by the late afternoon as well, but chances are a bit less. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light southeasterly winds prevail away from convection. Areas of fog will be possible towards the end of the forecast period.

MARINE
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Onshore flow will be near exercise caution criteria the next couple of nights, with more modest east-southeast winds prevailing on Thursday. A cold front will bring strong offshore flow to the coastal waters Friday night, which may prompt the need for Gale Warnings. These winds will ease Saturday, but small craft advisories are likely to still be needed into early next week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

No big fire weather concerns for the rest of the week with minimum relative humidity values generally at or above 30 percent and light to modest south winds. That will change this weekend, however, as the ongoing drought conditions along with low humidity and gusty north winds will result in elevated fire danger.

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.