Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Orange, TX

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Hot and muggy conditions will persist, accompanied by afternoon showers and thunderstorms as weak troughing remains overhead. Hand analysis indicates equivalent wind speeds in both the entrance and exit regions of the 500 mb trough, indicating that our quasi- stationary pattern will continue. At the surface, ridging from high pressure in the western Atlantic will continue to push warm, moist air northward from the Gulf. Daily PWAT values will remain elevated, above the 75th percentile, while ensemble tables show moisture levels at 925 mb surpassing the 90th percentile. Given the saturated environment and the slow-moving nature of summertime convection, flash flooding will be a concern today and Monday.

By Tuesday, our pattern will begin to shift as a jet streak across the central Plains forces the trough eastward, while a ridge builds over the desert Southwest. Temperatures and humidity will remain uncomfortable, with daytime highs ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s and dew points lingering in the mid-70s. Passing showers will offer the only real chance for relief. Otherwise, be sure to stay hydrated and find ways to keep cool.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

The forecast for the second half of the week will be a balancing act between diurnal convection and upper-level ridging, with 850, 700, and 500 mb heights rising steadily throughout the second half of the week. Despite the expected increasing strength of the ridge, afternoon PoPs look to remain in the 30–50% range, with higher values in the eastern half of the region. The primary concern for the latter half of the week will be steadily rising temperatures, with highs reaching the mid-90s in central Louisiana and the low-90s elsewhere. Heat index values are also trending upward, climbing into the triple digits across the region.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Popup showers and thunderstorms are once again impacting multiple terminals across the region. Near convection conditions can quickly drop down into IFR/LIFR with areas outside convection conditions are VFR with a scattered field of cumulus at FL030. A line of thunderstorms will impact AEX in the next two hours with VIS and CIGs dropping to IFR conditions.

After sunset conditions will rapidly improve with VFR conditions at all terminals. Once again we expect fog to form at AEX with MVFR conditions.

Monday morning and afternoon will see a repeat of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Light to moderate onshore flow will continue for the next several days. Combined seas are between 1 and 3 feet are will be steady for the next several days. The main concern will be local impacts from showers and thunderstorms, primary during the afternoon hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 72 91 73 91 / 30 70 10 50 LCH 76 89 77 89 / 30 60 10 60 LFT 74 89 75 89 / 30 80 10 80 BPT 75 89 76 88 / 30 60 10 50

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.