Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lower Grand Lagoon, FL

SHORT AND LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Main attention turns to the tropics through the middle of the week as a weak area of low pressure, currently off the east coast of Florida, moves west across the state and likely into the eastern Gulf by Wednesday morning. Future guidance has remained fairly weak with this system but there were notable spreads in the guidance from a very weak system meandering across the state and into north Florida/Apalachee Bay to a weak system moving across central Florida and into the eastern Gulf. The main steering features for this system will be a large upper level ridge across the southeast US. This will largely drive whatever feature develops west and northwest into the latter part of the week. The good thing for much of northern Florida and the northeast Gulf is that the southern solutions are more likely to stay south of the area thanks to the upper level steering flow out of the east and mostly away from the area. If weaknesses in the ridge allow any remnants or a surface low to exit the west coast of Florida further north, it is more likely to encounter land and remain a more disorganized system. We'll continue to monitor the system and provide updates but for now, we're likely to see increasing rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday and possibly some breezy conditions depending on the evolution of this system.

While the exact sensible weather for us largely depends on where this feature goes, more southern tracks would place our region on the wetter side of the system so we'll likely see elevated rain chances continuing into the late week and potentially weekend.

For now the National Hurricane Center has 48 hour genesis probabilities around 20% and 7 day probabilities around 30%.



AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 719 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR conditions and light winds are forecast outside of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms developing westward on the East Coast sea breeze will impact VLD early in the period, perhaps making it as far west as ABY and TLH before 03Z. Convective coverage will be greater tomorrow.

MARINE
Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Light to moderate northwesterly winds today become more northerly to northeasterly during the day Tuesday as a trough of low pressure moves into the Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds develop Tuesday night into Wednesday and lingers over the northeastern Gulf through at least Thursday. The trough has a low chance, or 30 percent chance, of tropical development as it moves over the northeastern Gulf, making the forecast more subject to change. Should development of this storm occur more quickly, mariners should at least be advised that marine conditions could begin to degrade on Wednesday/Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A seasonably moist and unstable air mass will be in place for the next several days with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal outside of gusty and erratic winds near thunderstorms along with lightning and pockets of heavy rain

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected again today and Tuesday. The highest concentration is forecast along the seabreeze and other leftover mesoscale boundaries. Some storms will produce locally heavy rain that could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding, especially in areas with poor drainage.

A trough/weak area of low pressure will move across the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf sometime Tuesday into Wednesday. Moisture from this system starts to ramp up from east to west in our area on Tuesday and is expected to linger through at least Thursday and potentially into the weekend. This could better organize rain into training bands of showers and storms, especially near the coast; this would further increase concern for flash flooding Wednesday and Thursday.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 76 95 75 90 / 30 80 40 90 Panama City 79 96 76 90 / 20 70 60 90 Dothan 76 98 75 93 / 10 50 30 80 Albany 75 96 74 93 / 30 60 20 70 Valdosta 74 96 74 93 / 40 70 30 80 Cross City 73 94 72 90 / 60 80 60 90 Apalachicola 79 90 76 87 / 30 70 80 90

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326- 426.

GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ155>161.

AL...None.
GM...None.