Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lower Grand Lagoon, FL

SHORT TERM
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 148 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

A renewed push from high pressure to the north will refresh our cold and dry air mass today. As high pressure to our north moves east, our low-level flow will turn more northeasterly tonight.
Plenty of locations will get a light freeze tonight, but fewer locations will get down into the 20s, especially south of the FL state line. Nonetheless, it should still be cold enough for some frost on Wednesday morning. High clouds will start to thicken before sunrise, which could disrupt the cooling and frost formation before sunrise.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 148 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

The main concern will be the potential for our Georgia counties, mainly along and north of the U.S. 82 corridor (Eufaula-Albany- Tifton), to get impacts along the southern fringe of a significant winter weather event further north in Georgia and Alabama. If winter weather impacts are experienced all the way south to the U.S. 82 corridor, it would be in the form of freezing rain and ice. It will be worth checking back on the forecast this week as the range of possibilities becomes narrower.
Here's the setup...

A broad and energetic longwave trough will persist across the eastern U.S. through next Monday and beyond, anchored by an arctic air mass with below zero temperatures over the Upper Midwest. This has contributed to the cold and dry air mass that we already have in place.

Meanwhile, a 500 mb low will take shape off the Southern California coast through Thursday, bringing a more active southern branch of the jet stream that will extend east along the Gulf Coast late this week. Also, our low-level flow will become easterly from Wednesday through Friday, bringing the return of a warmer and moister air mass.

On Friday and Saturday, an impressively cold and strong 1040-1050 mb surface high will move from Minnesota across the Great Lakes to the Northeast U
S
With such a strong and cold surface high to the north, the southern periphery of the high, representing the southern extent of the cold air, will surge south this weekend into the Southeast U
S
By the time it reaches the Deep South, it will become quite shallow as the cold, dense air mass oozes southward beneath the mild subtropical jet stream along the Gulf Coast.

That 500 mb southern branch low near the Southern California coast on Thursday will then eject and accelerate eastward from Friday through this weekend. Model consensus shows that upper trough axis zipping past our region on Sunday. Many model solutions develop a surface low pressure wave that will move eastward along the southern edge of the shallow cold air. The easy part of the forecast is saying that rain will blossom across our forecast area this weekend as jet stream dynamics interact with our considerably moistened air mass.

The challenging part of the forecast is determining how the southern extent of the cold air will behave. The eastward-moving surface low pressure wave will be preceded by a warm sector, and likely a temporary northward retreat of the cold air mass. The problem is that GEFS ensemble solutions vary the path of that important feature anywhere between the northeast Gulf and central Georgia. A more southern track would better hold the shallow cold air in place and lead to icing to the U.S. 82 corridor. A more northern track would push the southern edge of the cold air north for long enough to spare that corridor. However, a northern track could also bring enough warm unstable air north to support some low-end risk of severe convection.

To demonstrate how important the low track will be, consider the NBM percentiles for high temperature on Sunday at Fitzgerald.
There is a wildly large difference between its 10th percentile and 90th percentile high temperatures for Sunday, ranging from 32 degrees to 72 degrees respectively. Yes, that actually means there is a reasonable chance of the high at Fitzgerald ranging anywhere from 32 degrees to 72 degrees. The lower end of that range represents freezing rain.

For now, the probabilistic characterization would be to say that there is a low chance (20 percent) of impactful icing as far south as the Hwy 82 corridor. You can see why we urge you to check back on the forecast this week as the wildly large range of forecast possibilities gets more narrow, especially related to where the southern edge of that shallow cold air will be during the heaviest rain this weekend.

As low pressure moves off to the east on Sunday night and Monday, the heavier precipitation will head out with it. Colder air will come surging south across the entire service area. The CPC 6-10 day outlook valid for Jan. 25-29 shows a high chance of below normal temperatures. We will almost certainly be dealing with more freezing nights next week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with light north and winds.

MARINE
Issued at 148 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Fresh northeast breezes are expected this morning as high pressure passes by to the north. Breezes will clock around easterly on Wednesday and decrease as high pressure moves east of North Carolina into the Atlantic. Gentle to moderate easterly flow will continue Thursday and Friday. The southern periphery of strong high pressure will start to bridge south across the waters Friday night, bringing a freshening a of the easterly flow. A wave of low pressure may develop along the Central Gulf Coast late Saturday, bringing a turn to southeast flow.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 148 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

A cold and dry air mass will persist today and tonight. More frost will greet the rising sun this morning and again on Wednesday morning. Change will start to occur on Wednesday, as low-level flow clocks around to a milder easterly direction.
High- and mid-level clouds will also thicken on Wednesday, with the shading contributing to only poor and fair afternoon dispersion. On Thursday and Friday, the air mass will continue to get warmer and more humid.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 148 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

No flooding is expected for the next 7 days.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 56 34 62 46 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 58 38 62 48 / 0 0 0 10 Dothan 55 32 59 44 / 0 0 0 10 Albany 54 29 59 42 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 55 31 64 45 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 60 32 69 47 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 57 42 60 51 / 0 0 0 10

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.