Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lower Grand Lagoon, FL

SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Scattered showers will primarily impact our AL and GA counties this evening. A PV cluster north of the area will gradually retrograde allowing forcing for ascent to be favored over the eastern half of the forecast area on Thursday.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

The forecast for Friday through the weekend is highly uncertain as it depends on whether low pressure develops over the northeast gulf. Some models like the GFS develop nothing. Others like the Euro do, although the 12Z run is less bullish than the 00Z.
Nevertheless, there is enough model guidance showing some development that the National Hurricane Center has a 20% chance of development across the northeast gulf. Until better model consensus appears, it will be difficult to forecast with any confidence. Whether anything develops in the gulf, it does appear that we will see decent convective coverage from Friday through the weekend before a more typical summertime pattern returns next week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

MARINE
Issued at 252 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Moderate west to northwest breezes will continue through much of the period. An area of low pressure may develop over the eastern waters over the weekend, potentially resulting in a period of small craft advisory conditions on Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 252 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

A more summer-like pattern is expected through the rest of the work week as the heat and humidity return. Good to excellent dispersion is forecast today through Friday. There are no other fire weather concerns.

Fog Concerns and Other Remarks...No widespread fog is expected.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 252 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Around 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is expected over the next week across areas south of I-10. These are the areas that are still in drought so this will primarily be beneficial rain. Riverine flooding is not expected. One fly in the ointment would be development of a slow moving area of low pressure over the northeast gulf. This could potentially result in higher rainfall totals if the low develops, which is uncertain at this time.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 92 75 93 75 / 20 30 60 50 Panama City 92 79 93 78 / 20 10 50 50 Dothan 92 74 92 74 / 10 10 40 20 Albany 91 74 93 74 / 20 20 50 30 Valdosta 91 73 93 73 / 30 20 60 20 Cross City 92 75 93 74 / 50 30 70 50 Apalachicola 91 80 92 78 / 20 20 60 70

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ early this morning for FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.