Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lower Grand Lagoon, FL

SHORT TERM
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

An upper level low that's brought widespread cloudiness and showers/storms to the forecast area over the weekend will finally begin to move out of the region as it lifts north and northeast and slowly weakens with time. For our region, one last day of isolated to scattered showers and storms are likely on Tuesday given the cooler temperatures aloft and the trough axis associated with the upper level low pivoting through. Shower and storm coverage will likely be more diurnally driven on Tuesday with activity over the marine zones moving inland through the day and to the east in the modest 10 to 15 knot low-level westerly flow. The decreasing rain chances should also allow temperatures to warm up into the mid 80s and possibly upper 80s depending on cloud cover and eventual rain chances.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

Upper level low continues to move out of the region and the area will see broad upper level ridging develop from the west and northwest. Drier northwesterly flow aloft should squash rain chances through much of the week and allow a large rebound in temperatures. Wednesday will start out in the upper 80s but by the end of the week, much of the region will be pushing into the mid to even upper 90s in some spots which would likely be the hottest temperatures of season so far. Additionally, with low level flow remaining light and southerly, we wouldn't be surprised to see some heat indices push into the 100s for the first time this season as the humidity sticks around.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 754 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

The challenge continues to be timing of individual rounds or waves of showers and possibly thunderstorms that pivot northward around a low pressure center over Louisiana. Over the course of Monday, the mid- level air mass will finally undergo more substantial drying. So convective coverage should generally decrease on Monday, though there will still be a few stray showers around on Monday afternoon. Otherwise, the low-level air mass will be nearly saturated through sunrise, so low stratus is a concern.

MARINE
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

Elevated south and southwesterly flow will likely lead to periods of cautionary conditions on area waters through Tuesday morning before lighter winds around 10 knots and seas of 2 to 3 feet prevail through the rest of the upcoming week. Shower and storm activity will remain possible, especially in the overnight hours, through Tuesday before much drier conditions move in for the rest of the upcoming week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

The stalled low pressure system to our west will start to move northeast on Monday, weakening on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage both days. By Wednesday, a strong upper ridge will expand across the northeast Gulf Coast, shutting down convective activity. Increasing sunshine, building high pressure, and a turn to westerly winds will boost daytime temperatures from Wednesday into next weekend. Friday is likely to be the hottest day, with temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees above normal for mid-May.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

Widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches have fallen across the Panhandle and into southeast Alabama. Isolated locations here have seen amounts upwards of 6 to 8 inches of rain. These amounts are likely contributing to some local rises on quicker responding rivers like the Shoal River at Mossy Head. However, even these amounts have not been enough to bring most rivers to action stage. As the water works its way through the system some rises to action stage are possible across the Choctawhatchee and maybe as far north along the Kinchafoonee and Flint rivers from heavier rains today and yesterday. Lighter amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches has fallen across the Big Bend and south-central Georgia and no river systems are expected to see significant rises.

For the rest the area, generally about an inch of rain is possible with the higher amounts likely falling more across the Florida Big Bend as flow becomes more southwesterly. These amounts are not likely to cause any flooding in these areas due to fairly dry antecedent conditions.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 66 83 65 83 / 80 60 20 40 Panama City 68 79 69 80 / 40 50 30 20 Dothan 65 81 62 81 / 60 70 10 30 Albany 66 83 64 82 / 90 70 20 40 Valdosta 67 84 65 83 / 90 60 10 50 Cross City 66 83 66 82 / 90 60 10 50 Apalachicola 70 78 70 79 / 50 40 20 20

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for FLZ007>019-027-028-108- 112-114-115-118-127-128-326-426.

High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.

GA...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for GAZ120>131-142>148- 155>161.

AL...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for ALZ065>069.

GM...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for GMZ735.

High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for GMZ735.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775.