Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lower Grand Lagoon, FL

SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(This Evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 1229 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Warmer than normal conditions take over this week. Daytime highs climb into the upper 60s to middle 70s each afternoon; overnight lows creep upward from the upper 30s to near 40 tonight to the upper 40s to lower 50s by Tuesday night through the rest of the week.
There is a low to medium (20 to 40%) chance of showers each afternoon from Wednesday through Friday with the outlook for rain next weekend becoming more optimistic.

A look at the H5 pattern shows a ridge building over the Gulf and a trough over the northeast. The ridge axis nudges west a bit Monday, allowing a weak shortwave to slide overhead Monday afternoon. However, with limited moisture available, no rain is forecast Monday. The H5 ridge flattens a skoosh by the middle of the week as a few perturbations roll over the top of it. Combine that with a surface high over the western Atlantic bringing more moisture into our region on the heels of southerly breezes and we'll continue to mention a low to medium (20-40%) chance for isolated showers Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday afternoons.

Another thing to consider with the return of some moisture is fog.
The warmer, moist air rolling over the chilled shelf waters off the west coast of Florida and Apalachee Bay should lead to the formation of sea fog, at the very least, this week. Additionally, the REFS, which handled our fog events in late-December/early-January fairly well, is highlighting a low (10 to 30%) chance of fog developing in the western Florida Panhandle and portions of southeastern Alabama tonight into Monday morning and a high (>70%) chance at fog Monday night into Tuesday. Some of the fog will likely be dense and Dense Fog Advisories may be needed, moreso for Monday night into Tuesday morning. The signal is there for additional rounds of morning fog much of the upcoming work week.

We continue to monitor trends for next weekend. Ensembles continue to highlight an H5 trough diving over California later this week before translating over northern Mexico and into the southern Plains. Beyond that, there are differences within the ensemble guidance as to where the H5 trough and resulting surface low goes. A look at cluster analysis shows most of the EURO ensemble members tracking the surface low more along the Gulf Coast, which would be more of a rain-maker for our area. On the flip side, a handful of the EURO ensemble members and a majority of the GFS and Canadian ensemble members track the low farther to the north. This would lead to more of a stormy weekend. As always, we'll continue to monitor trends as models come into focus.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with light winds.

MARINE
Issued at 1229 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Favorable winds and seas are forecast much of the upcoming work week. Winds gradually turn southeasterly tonight to more southerly Monday, with light to gentle breezes prevailing through mid-week.
The potential for sea fog, especially for Apalachee Bay, increases later Monday into Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1229 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Critically low RH is forecast along the I-75 corridor in Georgia and the southeastern Florida Big Bend again Monday with MinRH forecast to drop to the upper 10s to middle 20s. RH elsewhere will generally be between 25 to 40 percent as light southerly winds bring some surface moisture back to the area. Low dispersions are a concern along the Gulf Coast thanks to the colder waters of the Gulf, but fair to good dispersions are forecast inland Monday. While dispersions remain poor along the coast again Tuesday and Wednesday, fair to excellent dispersions are forecast inland as westerly transport winds and slightly higher mixing heights develop. Some fog is possible along the Florida Panhandle tonight into Monday with a better chance at fog, some dense, across the entire region Monday night into Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 1229 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

There are no flooding concerns through the work week. Despite low to medium (20-40%) rain chances Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday afternoons, forecast rainfall totals are less than 0.25 inches.
Looking ahead, we're monitoring a storm system next weekend that has the potential to bring more widespread rain. There's a low (less than 20%) chance of anyone in our area receiving more than 1.0" of rain at this time. We'll continue to keep an eye on this trend as our area continues to deal ongoing drought conditions.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 39 72 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 47 68 53 70 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 43 73 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 40 71 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 38 71 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 33 72 38 75 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 44 63 50 66 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.