Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dayton, TX

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 200 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

The winter storm is here! As of 200 AM this morning, widespread light precipitation has overspread the entire CWA North of I-10, this has mostly been a snow event. While areas farther south have experienced a mix of sleet and freezing rain. Precipitation has remained relatively light so far. But this is unlikely to last as the situation becomes more dynamic later this morning. Heavier bands of precipitation are expected to develop. High resolution data continues to lean towards the I-10 corridor to the coast being the most likely region to experience heavier banding of precipitation. We also continue to believe that the precipitation south of I-10 will change over snow. The only areas that may remain more sleet/freezing rain are our southern counties near Matagorda Bay.

Forecasting the locations and development of snowbands is always pretty difficult. There's a non-zero chance that the heaviest bands could occur just offshore where frontogenesis appears to be trending stronger. But we still think there will be some moderate to heavy banding over land areas, resulting in a messy morning.
Those who find themselves under one of these heavier bands could receive 3-5 inches of snow. Lower totals will occur elsewhere.

One consistent trend over the last 24 hours is the faster speed of the system. Snow is expected to be completely offshore by afternoon. It's quite possible that many of you will see the sunshine by the afternoon, allowing temperatures to warm above freezing and melting at least some of the snow. Areas that see more sunshine could attempt to reach 40 degrees. Areas near the coast are likely to be the last to clear out. So highs may not warm much above freezing in the coastal counties. This sets us up for a very complicated temperatures forecast Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

If you find yourself under clear skies and a consistent snowpack on Tuesday night, your temperatures could fall well down into the teens. But if your snowpack is more patchy or completely melted, you may only fall into the mid 20s. Forecast lows are generally in the upper 10s to low 20s. But some of you will be colder and other will be warmer than currently forecast. Your Wednesday morning temperatures will be 100% dependent on the location of hard to predict snowbands and the amount of afternoon sunshine you see.
Wednesday afternoon is looking beautiful albeit cold, with sunshine and highs in the 40s.

Self

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 126 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

Going into Thursday, an upper level trough will be on approach from the Four Corners region which will push another cold front our way.
This front will be a relatively dry one as there isn't much moisture build-up ahead of it, but there are some mentionable chances for rain in the offshore waters. Look for daytime temperatures on Thursday to top out in the upper 40s to low 50s with overnight temperatures below freezing yet again with widespread lows in the 20s. A hard freeze will be possible for portions of the Piney Woods with low temperatures expected to fall into the low 20s. With surface high pressure directly overhead on Friday, expect clear skies with high temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Surface high pressure slides off to the east late Friday leading to a very noticeable warming trend going into the weekend. Low temperatures on Friday night will FINALLY not feature widespread freezing temperatures. Temperatures around the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods will be near or below freezing with lows in the low 30s, but elsewhere expect low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.

That warming trend takes us into the 60s on Saturday and even some 70s are thrown into the mix on Sunday. Low temperatures between Friday night and Saturday night will differ by ~20 degrees with overnight temperatures only falling into the 50s. The onshore flow does cause a big surge in moisture return with PW values increasing past the 90th percentile (~1.33"). As a result, chances for showers/storms will increase over the weekend ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Quite a bit of uncertainty remains on the timing of this front, which makes sense given how far out this is
So, stuck with the NBM for temperatures in the long range
but there is a downward trend in temperatures towards the end of the forecast period so take that for what it's worth!

Batiste

AVIATION
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

Wintry precipitation will continue tonight into Tuesday morning as a coastal low over western Gulf continues to supply moisture and temperatures drop to near or below freezing. We are expecting a combination of light RA/SN/PL/FZRA overnight into Tues morning.
Expect cigs to continue to lower to MVFR tonight with NE winds increasing to 10-15 KTS with higher gusts overnight into Tues morning as the pressure gradient tightens and an 850mb jet develops overhead. Wintry precipitation is expected to end by early afternoon as the coastal low moves east and dry air moves into SE TX. Cigs will gradually improve during the day and winds will relax Tue evening.

24

MARINE
Issued at 303 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

Gale conditions are expected tonight into Tuesday morning. A Gale Warning will be in effect for all area waters until early Tuesday evening. Seas of 6 to 13 feet cd dan also be expected. Advisories will be needed beyond that time as winds and seas gradually subside. Low water levels will be possible at times. In addition to these hazards a mix of frozen precipitation is expected on the bays and near the coast tonight into Tuesday afternoon.

Onshore flow briefly returns late Wednesday, but a weak front will push through sometime late Wednesday or early Thursday and will usher in northeast winds again. Winds may stay below Advisory criteria. Winds become easterly late Friday and then southeasterly on Saturday. Speeds will increase during the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens over the region. Caution flags and/or Advisories may be needed.

Cotto

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 37 15 43 24 / 30 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 34 17 40 26 / 70 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 34 28 45 37 / 100 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ163- 164-176.

Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ163-164- 176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338- 436>439.

Extreme Cold Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300- 313-335>338-436>439.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ177>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ330-335-350-355- 370-375.